An official website of the United States government
Undirected, binary network data consist of indicators of symmetric relations between pairs of actors. Regression models of such data allow for the estimation of effects of exogenous covariates on the network and for prediction of unobserved data. Ideally, estimators of the regression parameters should account for the inherent dependencies among relations in the network that involve the same actor. To account for such dependencies, researchers have developed a host of latent variable network models; however, estimation of many latent variable network models is computationally onerous and which model is best to base inference upon may not be clear. We propose the probit exchangeable (PX) model for undirected binary network data that is based on an assumption of exchangeability, which is common to many of the latent variable network models in the literature. The PX model can represent the first two moments of any exchangeable network model. We leverage the EM algorithm to obtain an approximate maximum likelihood estimator of the PX model that is extremely computationally efficient. Using simulation studies, we demonstrate the improvement in estimation of regression coefficients of the proposed model over existing latent variable network models. In an analysis of purchases of politically aligned books, we demonstrate political polarization in purchase behavior and show that the proposed estimator significantly reduces runtime relative to estimators of latent variable network models, while maintaining predictive performance.
more »
« less
Linearized binary regression
Probit regression was first proposed by Bliss in 1934 to study mortality rates of insects. Since then, an extensive body of work has analyzed and used probit or related binary regression methods (such as logistic regression) in numerous applications and fields. This paper provides a fresh angle to such well-established binary regression methods. Concretely, we demonstrate that linearizing the probit model in combination with linear estimators performs on par with state-of-the-art nonlinear regression methods, such as posterior mean or maximum aposteriori estimation, for a broad range of real-world regression problems. We derive exact, closed-form, and nonasymptotic expressions for the mean-squared error of our linearized estimators, which clearly separates them from nonlinear regression methods that are typically difficult to analyze. We showcase the efficacy of our methods and results for a number of synthetic and real-world datasets, which demonstrates that linearized binary regression finds potential use in a variety of inference, estimation, signal processing, and machine learning applications that deal with binary-valued observations or measurements.
more »
« less
- Award ID(s):
- 1652065
- PAR ID:
- 10082583
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- 52nd Annual Conference on Information Sciences and Systems (CISS)
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 1 to 6
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
The Rasch model is widely used for item response analysis in applications ranging from recommender systems to psychology, education, and finance. While a number of estimators have been proposed for the Rasch model over the last decades, the associated analytical performance guarantees are mostly asymptotic. This paper provides a framework that relies on a novel linear minimum mean-squared error (L-MMSE) estimator which enables an exact, nonasymptotic, and closed-form analysis of the parameter estimation error under the Rasch model. The proposed framework provides guidelines on the number of items and responses required to attain low estimation errors in tests or surveys. We furthermore demonstrate its efficacy on a number of real-world collaborative filtering datasets, which reveals that the proposed L-MMSE estimator performs on par with state-of-the-art nonlinear estimators in terms of predictive performance.more » « less
-
Phase retrieval refers to the problem of recovering real- or complex-valued vectors from magnitude measurements. The best-known algorithms for this problem are iterative in nature and rely on so-called spectral initializers that provide accurate initialization vectors. We propose a novel class of estimators suitable for general nonlinear measurement systems, called linear spectral estimators (LSPEs), which can be used to compute accurate initialization vectors for phase retrieval problems. The proposed LSPEs not only provide accurate initialization vectors for noisy phase retrieval systems with structured or random measurement matrices, but also enable the derivation of sharp and nonasymptotic mean-squared error bounds. We demonstrate the efficacy of LSPEs on synthetic and real-world phase retrieval problems, and we show that our estimators significantly outperform existing methods for structured measurement systems that arise in practice.more » « less
-
We study the problem of estimating at a central server the mean of a set of vectors distributed across several nodes (one vector per node). When the vectors are high-dimensional, the communication cost of sending entire vectors may be prohibitive, and it may be imperative for them to use sparsification techniques. While most existing work on sparsified mean estimation is agnostic to the characteristics of the data vectors, in many practical applications such as federated learning, there may be spatial correlations (similarities in the vectors sent by different nodes) or temporal correlations (similarities in the data sent by a single node over different iterations of the algorithm) in the data vectors. We leverage these correlations by simply modifying the decoding method used by the server to estimate the mean. We provide an analysis of the resulting estimation error as well as experiments for PCA, K-Means and Logistic Regression, which show that our estimators consistently outperform more sophisticated and expensive sparsification methods.more » « less
-
Abstract Standard estimators of the global average treatment effect can be biased in the presence of interference. This paper proposes regression adjustment estimators for removing bias due to interference in Bernoulli randomized experiments. We use a fitted model to predict the counterfactual outcomes of global control and global treatment. Our work differs from standard regression adjustments in that the adjustment variables are constructed from functions of the treatment assignment vector, and that we allow the researcher to use a collection of any functions correlated with the response, turning the problem of detecting interference into a feature engineering problem. We characterize the distribution of the proposed estimator in a linear model setting and connect the results to the standard theory of regression adjustments under SUTVA. We then propose an estimator that allows for flexible machine learning estimators to be used for fitting a nonlinear interference functional form. We propose conducting statistical inference via bootstrap and resampling methods, which allow us to sidestep the complicated dependences implied by interference and instead rely on empirical covariance structures. Such variance estimation relies on an exogeneity assumption akin to the standard unconfoundedness assumption invoked in observational studies. In simulation experiments, our methods are better at debiasing estimates than existing inverse propensity weighted estimators based on neighborhood exposure modeling. We use our method to reanalyze an experiment concerning weather insurance adoption conducted on a collection of villages in rural China.more » « less
- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
-
Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Conference Paper:
- https://doi.org/10.1109/CISS.2018.8362200
