Abstract The concept of “resilience analytics” has recently been proposed as a means to leverage the promise of big data to improve the resilience of interdependent critical infrastructure systems and the communities supported by them. Given recent advances in machine learning and other data‐driven analytic techniques, as well as the prevalence of high‐profile natural and man‐made disasters, the temptation to pursue resilience analytics without question is almost overwhelming. Indeed, we find big data analytics capable to support resilience to rare, situational surprises captured in analytic models. Nonetheless, this article examines the efficacy of resilience analytics by answering a single motivating question: Can big data analytics help cyber–physical–social (CPS) systems adapt to surprise? This article explains the limitations of resilience analytics when critical infrastructure systems are challenged by fundamental surprises never conceived during model development. In these cases, adoption of resilience analytics may prove either useless for decision support or harmful by increasing dangers during unprecedented events. We demonstrate that these dangers are not limited to a single CPS context by highlighting the limits of analytic models during hurricanes, dam failures, blackouts, and stock market crashes. We conclude that resilience analytics alone are not able to adapt to the very events that motivate their use and may, ironically, make CPS systems more vulnerable. We present avenues for future research to address this deficiency, with emphasis on improvisation to adapt CPS systems to fundamental surprise.
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Cashing out: digital payments and resilience post-demonetization
We explore how different segments of the population in India coped, in terms of business transactions, with the sudden decision of the government to stop accepting certain legal tender bills, popularly referred to as demonetization. The decision to demonetize was followed by a large-scale push for adoption of digital payments. Behavioral changes during such shocks do have specific nuances different from those during normal times. Using the concept of resilience, we examine the drivers of behavior change that differentiated those that were able to make the switch compared to those that weren't. Those technologically more adept were more resilient to the shock, in terms of being able to navigate through new means of exchange. Also, rural poor showed greater resilience than urban poor, a function of the level of homogeneity in those societies with respect to technology adoption and the ability to cope without changing cash practices. We also found that those who had bank accounts and relied largely on those accounts for daily transactions, without being aware of alternate modes, were impacted the most. From a policy perspective this research cautions against unintended consequences of purely access-driven incentives to behavior change, advocating instead a holistic approach.
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- PAR ID:
- 10085661
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Proceeding of ICTD 2019
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 1 to 16
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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