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1. Pantropical tree rings show small effects of drought on stem growth

   https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adq6607  

   Zuidema, Pieter A; Groenendijk, Peter; Rahman, Mizanur; Trouet, Valerie; Abiyu, Abrham; Acuña-Soto, Rodolfo; Adenesky-Filho, Eduardo; Alfaro-Sánchez, Raquel; Anholetto, Claudio Roberto; Aragão, José_Roberto Vieira; et al (July 2025, Science)

   Increasing drought pressure under anthropogenic climate change may jeopardize the potential of tropical forests to capture carbon in woody biomass and act as a long-term carbon dioxide sink. To evaluate this risk, we assessed drought impacts in 483 tree-ring chronologies from across the tropics and found an overall modest stem growth decline (2.5% with a 95% confidence interval of 2.2 to 2.7%) during the 10% driest years since 1930. Stem growth declines exceeded 10% in 25% of cases and were larger at hotter and drier sites and for gymnosperms compared with angiosperms. Growth declines generally did not outlast drought years and were partially mitigated by growth stimulation in wet years. Thus, pantropical forest carbon sequestration through stem growth has hitherto shown drought resilience that may, however, diminish under future climate change. 

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2. Drought and small-bodied herbivores modify nutrient cycling in the semi-arid shortgrass steppe

   https://doi.org/10.1007/s11258-019-00908-1  

   Lemoine, Nathan P.; Smith, Melinda D. (February 2019, Plant Ecology)
3. Is a drought a drought in grasslands? Productivity responses to different types of drought

   https://doi.org/10.1007/s00442-020-04793-8  

   Carroll, Charles J.; Slette, Ingrid J.; Griffin-Nolan, Robert J.; Baur, Lauren E.; Hoffman, Ava M.; Denton, Elsie M.; Gray, Jesse E.; Post, Alison K.; Johnston, Melissa K.; Yu, Qiang; et al (January 2021, Oecologia)

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4. Probabilistic estimates of drought impacts on agricultural production: Drought Impacts on Agriculture

   https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL073606  

   Madadgar, Shahrbanou; AghaKouchak, Amir; Farahmand, Alireza; Davis, Steven J. (August 2017, Geophysical Research Letters)

   Increases in the severity and frequency of drought in a warming climate may negatively impact agricultural production and food security. Unlike previous studies that have estimated agricultural impacts of climate condition using single-crop yield distributions, we develop a multivariate probabilistic model that uses projected climatic conditions (e.g., precipitation amount or soil moisture) throughout a growing season to estimate the probability distribution of crop yields. We demonstrate the model by an analysis of the historical period 1980–2012, including the Millennium Drought in Australia (2001–2009). We find that precipitation and soil moisture deficit in dry growing seasons reduced the average annual yield of the five largest crops in Australia (wheat, broad beans, canola, lupine, and barley) by 25–45% relative to the wet growing seasons. Our model can thus produce region- and crop-specific agricultural sensitivities to climate conditions and variability. Probabilistic estimates of yield may help decision-makers in government and business to quantitatively assess the vulnerability of agriculture to climate variations. We develop a multivariate probabilistic model that uses precipitation to estimate the probability distribution of crop yields. The proposed model shows how the probability distribution of crop yield changes in response to droughts. During Australia's Millennium Drought precipitation and soil moisture deficit reduced the average annual yield of the five largest crops. 

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5. Climate Change and Drought: a Perspective on Drought Indices

   https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-018-0098-x  

   Mukherjee, Sourav; Mishra, Ashok; Trenberth, Kevin E. (October 2018, Current Climate Change Reports)