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Abstract Emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri) are under increasing environmental pressure. Monitoring colony size and population trends of this Antarctic seabird relies primarily on satellite imagery recorded near the end of the breeding season, when light conditions levels are sufficient to capture images, but colony occupancy is highly variable. To correct population estimates for this variability, we develop a phenological model that can predict the number of breeding pairs and fledging chicks, as well as key phenological events such as arrival, hatching and foraging times, from as few as six data points from a single season. The ability to extrapolate occupancy from sparse data makes the model particularly useful for monitoring remotely sensed animal colonies where ground-based population estimates are rare or unavailable.
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Sidebar 2.3. Phenology of terrestrial and freshwater primary producers
Phenology is the study of recurring events in nature and their relationships with climate. The word derives from the Greek phaínō ‘appear’ and logos ‘reason’, emphasizing the focus on observing events and understanding why they occur (Demarée and Rutishauser 2009). Phenological recording has a history that dates back many centuries (Linneaus and Bark 1753; Aono and Kazui 2008). More recently, advances in monitoring technologies have enabled automated and remotely sensed observations, complemented by increasing citizen science participation in monitoring efforts. Phenological information can also be derived from widespread environmental monitoring stations around the globe.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1702697
- PAR ID:
- 10104122
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
- Volume:
- 99
- ISSN:
- 1520-0477
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- S63-S66
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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