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Accurately forecasting stress may enable people to make behavioral changes that could improve their future health. For example, accurate stress forecasting might inspire people to make changes to their schedule to get more sleep or exercise, in order to reduce excessive stress tomorrow night. In this paper, we examine how accurately the previous N-days of multi-modal data can forecast tomorrow evening’s high/low binary stress levels using long short-term memory neural network models (LSTM), logistic regression (LR), and support vector machines (SVM). Using a total of 2,276 days, with 1,231 overlapping 8-day sequences of data from 142 participants (including physiological signals, mobile phone usage, location, and behavioral surveys), we find the LSTM significantly outperforms LR and SVM with the best results reaching 83.6% using 7 days of prior data. Using time-series models improves the forecasting of stress even when considering only subsets of the multi-modal data set, e.g., using only physiology data. In particular, the LSTM model reaches 81.4% accuracy using only objective and passive data, i.e., not including subjective reports from a daily survey.
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Daytime Data and LSTM Can Forecast Tomorrow's Stress, Health, and Happiness
Accurately forecasting well-being may enable people to make desirable behavioral changes that could improve their future well-being. In this paper, we evaluate how well an automated model can forecast the next-day’s well-being (specifically focusing on stress, health, and happiness) from static models (support vector machine and logistic regression) and time-series models (long short-term memory neural network models (LSTM)) using the previous seven days of physiological, mobile phone, and behavioral survey data. We especially examine how using only a portion of the day’s data (e.g. just night-time, or just daytime) influences the forecasting accuracy. The results show that accuracy is improved, across every condition tested, by using an LSTM instead of using static models. We find that daytime-only physiology data from wearable sensors, using an LSTM, can provide an accurate forecast of tomorrow’s well-being using students’ daily life data (stress: 80.4%, health: 86.0%, and happiness: 79.1%), achieving the same accuracy as using data collected from around the clock. These findings are valuable steps toward developing a practical and convenient well-being forecasting system.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1840167
- PAR ID:
- 10108776
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- 2019 41st Annual International Conference of the IEEE Engineering in Medicine & Biology Society (EMBC)
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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