Abstract Wildfires in humid tropical forests have become more common in recent years, increasing the rates of tree mortality in forests that have not co-evolved with fire. Estimating carbon emissions from these wildfires is complex. Current approaches rely on estimates of committed emissions based on static emission factors through time and space, yet these emissions cannot be assigned to specific years, and thus are not comparable with other temporally-explicit emission sources. Moreover, committed emissions are gross estimates, whereas the long-term consequences of wildfires require an understanding of net emissions that accounts for post-fire uptake of CO 2 . Here, using a 30 year wildfire chronosequence from across the Brazilian Amazon, we calculate net CO 2 emissions from Amazon wildfires by developing statistical models comparing post-fire changes in stem mortality, necromass decomposition and vegetation growth with unburned forest plots sampled at the same time. Over the 30 yr time period, gross emissions from combustion during the fire and subsequent tree mortality and decomposition were equivalent to 126.1 Mg CO 2 ha −1 of which 73% (92.4 Mg CO 2 ha −1 ) resulted from mortality and decomposition. These emissions were only partially offset by forest growth, with an estimated CO 2 uptake of 45.0 Mg ha −1 over the same time period. Our analysis allowed us to assign emissions and growth across years, revealing that net annual emissions peak 4 yr after forest fires. At present, Brazil’s National Determined Contribution (NDC) for emissions fails to consider forest fires as a significant source, even though these are likely to make a substantial and long-term impact on the net carbon balance of Amazonia. Considering long-term post-fire necromass decomposition and vegetation regrowth is crucial for improving global carbon budget estimates and national greenhouse gases (GHG) inventories for tropical forest countries. 
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                            Droughts, Wildfires, and Forest Carbon Cycling: A Pantropical Synthesis
                        
                    
    
            Tropical woody plants store ∼230 petagrams of carbon (PgC) in their aboveground living biomass. This review suggests that these stocks are currently growing in primary forests at rates that have decreased in recent decades. Droughts are an important mechanism in reducing forest C uptake and stocks by decreasing photosynthesis, elevating tree mortality, increasing autotrophic respiration, and promoting wildfires. Tropical forests were a C source to the atmosphere during the 2015–2016 El Niño–related drought, with some estimates suggesting that up to 2.3 PgC were released. With continued climate change, the intensity and frequency of droughts and fires will likely increase. It is unclear at what point the impacts of severe, repeated disturbances by drought and fires could exceed tropical forests’ capacity to recover. Although specific threshold conditions beyond which ecosystem properties could lead to alternative stable states are largely unknown, the growing body of scientific evidence points to such threshold conditions becoming more likely as climate and land use change across the tropics. ▪ Droughts have reduced forest carbon uptake and stocks by elevating tree mortality, increasing autotrophic respiration, and promoting wildfires. ▪ Threshold conditions beyond which tropical forests are pushed into alternative stable states are becoming more likely as effects of droughts intensify. 
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                            - Award ID(s):
- 1802754
- PAR ID:
- 10109637
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences
- Volume:
- 47
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 0084-6597
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 555 to 581
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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