skip to main content

Title: The Houston Methodist lung transplant risk model – a validated tool for pre-transplant risk assessment
BACKGROUND: Lung transplantation is the gold standard for a carefully selected patient population with end-stage lung disease. We sought to create a unique risk stratification model using only preoperative recipient data to predict one-year postoperative mortality during our pre-transplant assessment. METHODS: Data of lung transplant recipients at Houston Methodist Hospital (HMH) from 1/2009 to 12/2014 were extracted from the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) database. Patients were randomly divided into development and validation cohorts. Cox proportional-hazards models were conducted. Variables associated with 1-year mortality post-transplant were assigned weights based on the beta coefficients, and risk scores were derived. Patients were stratified into low-, medium- and high-risk categories. Our model was validated using the validation dataset and data from other US transplant centers in the UNOS database RESULTS: We randomized 633 lung recipients from HMH into the development (n=317 patients) and validation cohort (n=316). One-year survival after transplant was significantly different among risk groups: 95% (low-risk), 84% (medium-risk), and 72% (high-risk) (p<0.001) with a C-statistic of 0.74. Patient survival in the validation cohort was also significantly different among risk groups (85%, 77% and 65%, respectively, p<0.001). Validation of the model with the UNOS dataset included 9,920 patients and found 1-year survival to be more » 91%, 86% and 82%, respectively (p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Using only recipient data collected at the time of pre-listing evaluation, our simple scoring system has good discrimination power and can be a practical tool in the assessment and selection of potential lung transplant recipients. « less
Award ID(s):
Publication Date:
Journal Name:
The annals of thoracic surgery
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. Abstract Background Interstitial lung abnormalities (ILA) can be detected on computed tomography (CT) in lung cancer patients and have an association with mortality in advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients. The aim of this study is to demonstrate the significance of ILA for mortality in patients with stage I NSCLC using Boston Lung Cancer Study cohort. Methods Two hundred and thirty-one patients with stage I NSCLC from 2000 to 2011 were investigated in this retrospective study (median age, 69 years; 93 males, 138 females). ILA was scored on baseline CT scans prior to treatment using a 3-point scale (0 = no evidence of ILA, 1 = equivocal for ILA, 2 = ILA) by a sequential reading method. ILA score 2 was considered the presence of ILA. The difference of overall survival (OS) for patients with different ILA scores were tested via log-rank test and multivariate Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) including ILA score, age, sex, smoking status, and treatment as the confounding variables. Results ILA was present in 22 out of 231 patients (9.5%) with stage I NSCLC. The presence of ILA was associated with shorter OS (patients with ILA score 2, median 3.85 years [95% confidence interval (CI): 3.36 –more »not reached (NR)]; patients with ILA score 0 or 1, median 10.16 years [95%CI: 8.65 - NR]; P  <  0.0001). In a Cox proportional hazards model, the presence of ILA remained significant for increased risk for death (HR = 2.88, P  = 0.005) after adjusting for age, sex, smoking and treatment. Conclusions ILA was detected on CT in 9.5% of patients with stage I NSCLC. The presence of ILA was significantly associated with a shorter OS and could be an imaging marker of shorter survival in stage I NSCLC.« less
  2. Background The novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 and its associated disease, COVID-19, have caused worldwide disruption, leading countries to take drastic measures to address the progression of the disease. As SARS-CoV-2 continues to spread, hospitals are struggling to allocate resources to patients who are most at risk. In this context, it has become important to develop models that can accurately predict the severity of infection of hospitalized patients to help guide triage, planning, and resource allocation. Objective The aim of this study was to develop accurate models to predict the mortality of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 using basic demographics and easily obtainable laboratory data. Methods We performed a retrospective study of 375 hospitalized patients with COVID-19 in Wuhan, China. The patients were randomly split into derivation and validation cohorts. Regularized logistic regression and support vector machine classifiers were trained on the derivation cohort, and accuracy metrics (F1 scores) were computed on the validation cohort. Two types of models were developed: the first type used laboratory findings from the entire length of the patient’s hospital stay, and the second type used laboratory findings that were obtained no later than 12 hours after admission. The models were further validated on a multicenter external cohortmore »of 542 patients. Results Of the 375 patients with COVID-19, 174 (46.4%) died of the infection. The study cohort was composed of 224/375 men (59.7%) and 151/375 women (40.3%), with a mean age of 58.83 years (SD 16.46). The models developed using data from throughout the patients’ length of stay demonstrated accuracies as high as 97%, whereas the models with admission laboratory variables possessed accuracies of up to 93%. The latter models predicted patient outcomes an average of 11.5 days in advance. Key variables such as lactate dehydrogenase, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, and percentage of lymphocytes in the blood were indicated by the models. In line with previous studies, age was also found to be an important variable in predicting mortality. In particular, the mean age of patients who survived COVID-19 infection (50.23 years, SD 15.02) was significantly lower than the mean age of patients who died of the infection (68.75 years, SD 11.83; P<.001). Conclusions Machine learning models can be successfully employed to accurately predict outcomes of patients with COVID-19. Our models achieved high accuracies and could predict outcomes more than one week in advance; this promising result suggests that these models can be highly useful for resource allocation in hospitals.« less
  3. Abstract Background Few interventions are known to reduce the incidence of respiratory failure that occurs following elective surgery (postoperative respiratory failure; PRF). We previously reported risk factors associated with PRF that occurs within the first 5 days after elective surgery (early PRF; E-PRF); however, PRF that occurs six or more days after elective surgery (late PRF; L-PRF) likely represents a different entity. We hypothesized that L-PRF would be associated with worse outcomes and different risk factors than E-PRF. Methods This was a retrospective matched case-control study of 59,073 consecutive adult patients admitted for elective non-cardiac and non-pulmonary surgical procedures at one of five University of California academic medical centers between October 2012 and September 2015. We identified patients with L-PRF, confirmed by surgeon and intensivist subject matter expert review, and matched them 1:1 to patients who did not develop PRF (No-PRF) based on hospital, age, and surgical procedure. We then analyzed risk factors and outcomes associated with L-PRF compared to E-PRF and No-PRF. Results Among 95 patients with L-PRF, 50.5% were female, 71.6% white, 27.4% Hispanic, and 53.7% Medicare recipients; the median age was 63 years (IQR 56, 70). Compared to 95 matched patients with No-PRF and 319 patients who developedmore »E-PRF, L-PRF was associated with higher morbidity and mortality, longer hospital and intensive care unit length of stay, and increased costs. Compared to No-PRF, factors associated with L-PRF included: preexisiting neurologic disease (OR 4.36, 95% CI 1.81–10.46), anesthesia duration per hour (OR 1.22, 95% CI 1.04–1.44), and maximum intraoperative peak inspiratory pressure per cm H 2 0 (OR 1.14, 95% CI 1.06–1.22). Conclusions We identified that pre-existing neurologic disease, longer duration of anesthesia, and greater maximum intraoperative peak inspiratory pressures were associated with respiratory failure that developed six or more days after elective surgery in adult patients (L-PRF). Interventions targeting these factors may be worthy of future evaluation.« less
  4. Background Though the gut microbiome has been associated with efficacy of immunotherapy (ICI) in certain cancers, similar findings have not been identified for microbiomes from other body sites and their correlation to treatment response and immune related adverse events (irAEs) in lung cancer (LC) patients receiving ICIs. Methods We designed a prospective cohort study conducted from 2018 to 2020 at a single-center academic institution to assess for correlations between the microbiome in various body sites with treatment response and development of irAEs in LC patients treated with ICIs. Patients must have had measurable disease, ECOG 0–2, and good organ function to be included. Data was collected for analysis from January 2019 to October 2020. Patients with histopathologically confirmed, advanced/metastatic LC planned to undergo immunotherapy-based treatment were enrolled between September 2018 and June 2019. Nasal, buccal and gut microbiome samples were obtained prior to initiation of immunotherapy +/− chemotherapy, at development of adverse events (irAEs), and at improvement of irAEs to grade 1 or less. Results Thirty-seven patients were enrolled, and 34 patients were evaluable for this report. 32 healthy controls (HC) from the same geographic region were included to compare baseline gut microbiota. Compared to HC, LC gut microbiota exhibitedmore »significantly lower α-diversity. The gut microbiome of patients who did not suffer irAEs were found to have relative enrichment of Bifidobacterium (p = 0.001) and Desulfovibrio (p = 0.0002). Responders to combined chemoimmunotherapy exhibited increased Clostridiales (p = 0.018) but reduced Rikenellaceae (p = 0.016). In responders to chemoimmunotherapy we also observed enrichment of Finegoldia in nasal microbiome, and increased Megasphaera but reduced Actinobacillus in buccal samples. Longitudinal samples exhibited a trend of α-diversity and certain microbial changes during the development and resolution of irAEs. Conclusions This pilot study identifies significant differences in the gut microbiome between HC and LC patients, and their correlation to treatment response and irAEs in LC. In addition, it suggests potential predictive utility in nasal and buccal microbiomes, warranting further validation with a larger cohort and mechanistic dissection using preclinical models.« less
  5. e20551 Background: Enzyme activity is at the center of all biological processes. When these activities are misregulated by changes in sequence, expression, or activity, pathologies emerge. Misregulation of protease enzymes such as Matrix Metalloproteinases and Cathepsins play a key role in the pathophysiology of cancer. We describe here a novel class of graphene-based, cost effective biosensors that can detect altered protease activation in a blood sample from early stage lung cancer patients. Methods: The Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) tool was used to identify proteases differentially expressed in lung cancer and matched normal tissue. Biosensors were assembled on a graphene backbone annotated with one of a panel of fluorescently tagged peptides. The graphene quenches fluorescence until the peptide is either cleaved by active proteases or altered by post-translational modification. 19 protease biosensors were evaluated on 431 commercially collected serum samples from non-lung cancer controls (69%) and pathologically confirmed lung cancer cases (31%) tested over two independent cohorts. Serum was incubated with each of the 19 biosensors and enzyme activity was measured indirectly as a continuous variable by a fluorescence plate reader. Analysis was performed using Emerge, a proprietary predictive and classification modeling system based on massively parallel evolving “Turing machine” algorithms.more »Each analysis stratified allocation into training and testing sets, and reserved an out-of-sample validation set for reporting. Results: 256 clinical samples were initially evaluated including 35% cancer cases evenly distributed across stages I (29%), II (26%), III (24%) and IV (21%). The case controls included common co-morbidies in the at-risk population such as COPD, chronic bronchitis, and benign nodules (19%). Using the Emerge classification analysis, biosensor biomarkers alone (no clinical factors) demonstrated Sensitivity (Se.) = 92% (CI 82%-99%) and Specificity (Sp.) = 82% (CI 69%-91%) in the out-of-sample set. An independent cohort of 175 clinical cases (age 67±8, 52% male) focused on early detection (26% cancer, 70% Stage I, 30% Stage II/III) were similarly evaluated. Classification showed Se. = 100% (CI 79%-100%) and Sp. = 93% (CI 80%-99%) in the out-of-sample set. For the entire dataset of 175 samples, Se. = 100% (CI 92%-100%) and Sp. = 97% (CI 92%-99%) was observed. Conclusions: Lung cancer can be treated if it is diagnosed when still localized. Despite clear data showing screening for lung cancer by Low Dose Computed Tomography (LDCT) is effective, screening compliance remains very low. Protease biosensors provide a cost effective additional specialized tool with high sensitivity and specificity in detection of early stage lung cancer. A large prospective trial of at-risk smokers with follow up is being conducted to evaluate a commercial version of this assay.« less