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We propose an SIR epidemic model coupled with opinion dynamics to study an epidemic and opinions spreading in a network of communities. Our model couples networked SIR epidemic dynamics and opinions towards the severity of the epidemic. We develop an epidemic-opinion based threshold condition to capture the moment when a weighted average of the epidemic states starts to decrease exponentially fast over the network, namely the peak infection time. We define an effective reproduction number to characterize the behavior of the model through the peak infection time. We use both analytical and simulation-based results to illustrate that the opinions reflect the recovered levels within the communities after the epidemic dies out.
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Transient Dynamics of Epidemic Spreading and Its Mitigation on Large Networks
In this paper, we aim to understand the transient dynamics of a susceptible-infected (SI) epidemic spreading process on a large network. The SI model has been largely overlooked in the literature, while it is naturally a better fit for modeling the malware propagation in early times when patches/vaccines are not available, or over a wider range of timescales when massive patching is practically infeasible. Nonetheless, its analysis is simply non-trivial, as its important dynamics are all transient and the usual stability/steady-state analysis no longer applies. To this end, we develop a theoretical framework that allows us to obtain an accurate closed-form approximate solution to the original SI dynamics on any arbitrary network, which captures the temporal dynamics over all time and is tighter than the existing approximation, and also to provide a new interpretation via reliability theory. As its applications, we further develop vaccination policies with or without knowledge of already-infected nodes, to mitigate the future epidemic spreading to the extent possible, and demonstrate their effectiveness through numerical simulations.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1824518
- PAR ID:
- 10121292
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- (ACM MobiHoc'19) Proceedings of the Twentieth ACM International Symposium on Mobile Ad Hoc Networking and Computing
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 191 to 200
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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We propose a mathematical model to study coupled epidemic and opinion dynamics in a network of communities. Our model captures SIS epidemic dynamics whose evolution is dependent on the opinions of the communities toward the epidemic, and vice versa. In particular, we allow both cooperative and antagonistic interactions, representing similar and opposing perspectives on the severity of the epidemic, respectively. We propose an Opinion-Dependent Reproduction Number to characterize the mutual influence between epidemic spreading and opinion dissemination over the networks. Through stability analysis of the equilibria, we explore the impact of opinions on both epidemic outbreak and eradication, characterized by bounds on the Opinion-Dependent Reproduction Number. We also show how to eradicate epidemics by reshaping the opinions, offering researchers an approach for designing control strategies to reach target audiences to ensure effective epidemic suppression.more » « less
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Conference Paper:
- https://doi.org/10.1145/3323679.3326517
