Abstract An integrated storm surge modeling and traffic analysis were conducted in this study to assess the effectiveness of hurricane evacuations through a case study of Hurricane Irma. The Category 5 hurricane in 2017 caused a record evacuation with an estimated 6.8 million people relocating statewide in Florida. The Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) model was applied to simulate storm tides during the hurricane event. Model validations indicated that simulated pressures, winds, and storm surge compared well with observations. Model simulated storm tides and winds were used to estimate the area affected by Hurricane Irma. Results showed that the storm surge and strong wind mainly affected coastal counties in south-west Florida. Only moderate storm tides (maximum about 2.5 m) and maximum wind speed about 115 mph were shown in both model simulations and Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) post-hurricane assessment near the area of hurricane landfall. Storm surges did not rise to the 100-year flood elevation level. The maximum wind was much below the design wind speed of 150–170 mph (Category 5) as defined in Florida Building Code (FBC) for south Florida coastal areas. Compared with the total population of about 2.25 million in the six coastal counties affected by storm surge and Category 1–3 wind, the statewide evacuation of approximately 6.8 million people was found to be an over-evacuation due mainly to the uncertainty of hurricane path, which shifted from south-east to south-west Florida. The uncertainty of hurricane tracks made it difficult to predict the appropriate storm surge inundation zone for evacuation. Traffic data were used to analyze the evacuation traffic patterns. In south-east Florida, evacuation traffic started 4 days before the hurricane’s arrival. However, the hurricane path shifted and eventually landed in south-west Florida, which caused a high level of evacuation traffic in south-west Florida. Over-evacuation caused Evacuation Traffic Index ( ETI ) to increase to 200% above normal conditions in some sections of highways, which reduced the effectiveness of evacuation. Results from this study show that evacuation efficiency can be improved in the future by more accurate hurricane forecasting, better public awareness of real-time storm surge and wind as well as integrated storm surge and evacuation modeling for quick response to the uncertainty of hurricane forecasting.
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Assessment of Hurricane Irma Impacts on South Florida Seagrass Communities Using Long-Term Monitoring Programs
Hurricanes are some of the largest environmental drivers of change in coastal systems. We investigated the impacts of Hurricane Irma on benthic macrophyte communities in Florida Bay (FB) and the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary (FKNMS), USA. Spatiotemporal analyses were performed at multiple hierarchical levels (site, zone, region) to identify potential changes in the Braun-Blanquet (BB) densities of total seagrass (TSG) and total calcareous green macroalgae (TCAL) post-disturbance and to determine whether changes were attributable to hurricane impacts or normal seasonal and inter-annual variability. There were significant decreases in TSG in one of five zones in FKNMS and in one of six zones in FB, but no change in TCAL was recorded in either system. TSG in the Lower Keys Bayside declined from a mean BB score of 2.6 to 1.2, resulting from storm-induced erosion, whereas TSG in coastal FB declined from 1.05–2.4 to 0.36–2.0, likely due to prolonged hyposalinity and low dissolved oxygen following stormwater drainage. Overall, impacts to South Florida benthic macrophyte communities from Hurricane Irma were not catastrophic and were limited in spatial extent. Our results suggest that coastal areas hit by a storm with heavy winds are more likely to sustain direct physical impacts to the benthos, whereas estuarine areas with longer residence times are more at risk of the indirect effects of stormwater runoff and retention. Our analyses placed putative hurricane impacts within the context of recent variability and historical system baselines through the use of long-term monitoring data coordinated by multiple governmental and academic entities.
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- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10122387
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Estuaries and Coasts
- ISSN:
- 1559-2723
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Hurricanes are recurring high-energy disturbances in coastal regions that change community structure and function of mangrove wetlands. However, most of the studies assessing hurricane impacts on mangroves have focused on negative effects without considering the positive influence of hurricane-induced sediment deposition and associated nutrient fertilization on mangrove productivity and resilience. Here, we quantified how Hurricane Irma influenced soil nutrient pools, vertical accretion, and plant phosphorus (P) uptake after its passage across the Florida Coastal Everglades in September 2017. Vertical accretion from Irma’s deposits was 6.7 to 14.4 times greater than the long-term (100 y) annual accretion rate (0.27 ± 0.04 cm y−1). Storm deposits extended up to 10-km inland from the Gulf of Mexico. Total P (TP) inputs were highest at the mouth of estuaries, with P concentration double that of underlying surface (top 10 cm) soils (0.19 ± 0.02 mg cm−3). This P deposition contributed 49 to 98% to the soil nutrient pool. As a result, all mangrove species showed a significant increase in litter foliar TP and soil porewater inorganic P concentrations in early 2018, 3 mo after Irma’s impact, thus underscoring the interspecies differences in nutrient uptake. Mean TP loading rates were five times greater in southwestern (94 ± 13 kg ha−1d−1) mangrove-dominated estuaries compared to the southeastern region, highlighting the positive role of hurricanes as a natural fertilization mechanism influencing forest productivity. P-rich, mineral sediments deposited by hurricanes create legacies that facilitate rapid forest recovery, stimulation of peat soil development, and resilience to sea-level rise.
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Predicting the responses of animals to environmental changes is a fundamental goal of ecology and is necessary for conservation and management of species. While most studies focus on relatively gradual changes, extreme events may have lasting impacts on populations. Animals respond to major disturbances such as hurricanes by seeking shelter, migrating, or they may fail to respond appropriately. We assessed the effects of Hurricane Irma in 2017 on the behavior and survival of juvenile bull sharks (Carcharhinus leucas) within a nursery of the Florida coastal Everglades using long-term acoustic telemetry monitoring. Most of our tagged sharks (n = 14) attempted to leave the shallow waters of the Shark River Estuary before the hurricane strike, but individuals varied in the timing and success of their movements. Eight bull sharks left within hours or days before the hurricane, but three left more than a week in advance. Nine of 11 bull sharks (~ 82%) eventually returned to the array within weeks or months of the storm. Six of these returning individuals were detected in a different coastal array in nearshore waters ca. 80 km away from the mouth of the estuary during their absence. The remaining three bull sharks moved downstream relatively late (after the hurricane) and may have died. We used binomial generalized linear mixed models to estimate the probability of presence within the array as a function of several environmental variables. Departure from the array was predicted by declining barometric pressure, increasing rate of change in pressure, and potentially fluctuations in river stage. Juvenile bull sharks may weigh multiple environmental cues, perceived predation risk, their own physical size, and shifting prey resources when making decisions during and after hurricanes.more » « less
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Hurricane Irma, in 2017, made an unusual landfall in South Florida and the unpredictability of the hurricane’s path challenged the evacuation process seriously and left many evacuees clueless. It was likely to hit Southeast Florida but suddenly shifted its path to the west coast of the peninsula, where the evacuation process had to change immediately without any time for individual decision-making. As such, this study aimed to develop a methodology to integrate evacuation and storm surge modeling with a case study analysis of Irma hitting Southeast Florida. For this purpose, a coupled storm surge and wave finite element model (ADCIRC+SWAN) was used to determine the inundation zones and roadways with higher inundation risk in Broward, Miami-Dade, and Palm Beach counties in Southeast Florida. This was fed into the evacuation modeling to estimate the regional clearance times and shelter availability in the selected counties. Findings show that it takes approximately three days to safely evacuate the populations in the study area. Modeling such integrated simulations before the hurricane hit the state could provide the information people in hurricane-prone areas need to decide to evacuate or not before the mandatory evacuation order is given.more » « less
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Abstract Mangroves buffer inland ecosystems from hurricane winds and storm surge. However, their ability to withstand harsh cyclone conditions depends on plant resilience traits and geomorphology. Using airborne lidar and satellite imagery collected before and after Hurricane Irma, we estimated that 62% of mangroves in southwest Florida suffered canopy damage, with largest impacts in tall forests (>10 m). Mangroves on well-drained sites (83%) resprouted new leaves within one year after the storm. By contrast, in poorly-drained inland sites, we detected one of the largest mangrove diebacks on record (10,760 ha), triggered by Irma. We found evidence that the combination of low elevation (median = 9.4 cm asl), storm surge water levels (>1.4 m above the ground surface), and hydrologic isolation drove coastal forest vulnerability and were independent of tree height or wind exposure. Our results indicated that storm surge and ponding caused dieback, not wind. Tidal restoration and hydrologic management in these vulnerable, low-lying coastal areas can reduce mangrove mortality and improve resilience to future cyclones.
- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1007/s12237-019-00623-0
