Abstract In the U.S. Great Plains (GP), diagnosing precipitation variability is key in developing an understanding of the present and future availability of water in the region. Building on previous work investigating U.S. GP pluvial years, this study uses ERA twentieth century (ERA-20C) reanalysis data to investigate key circulation anomalies driving GP precipitation anomalies during a subset of GP pluvial years (called in this paper Pattern pluvial years). With previous research showing links between tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and GP climate variability, this study diagnoses the key circulation anomalies through an analysis of SSTs and their influence on the atmosphere. Results show that during Pattern southern Great Plains (SGP) pluvial years, central tropical Pacific SST anomalies are coincident with key atmospheric anomalies across the Pacific basin and North America. During northern Great Plains (NGP) Pattern pluvial years, no specific pattern of oceanic anomalies emerges that forces the circulation anomaly feature inherent in specific NGP pluvial years. Utilizing the results for SGP pluvial years, a conceptual model is developed detailing the identified pathway for the occurrence of circulation patterns that are favorable for pluvial years over the SGP. Overall, results from this study show the importance of the identified SGP atmospheric anomaly signal and the potential for predictability of such events.
more »
« less
Mechanisms of Seasonal Soil Moisture Drought Onset and Termination in the Southern Great Plains
Mechanisms of drought onset and termination are examined across North America with a focus on the southern Plains using data from land surface models and regional and global reanalyses for 1979–2017. Continental-scale analysis of covarying patterns reveals a tight coupling between soil moisture change over time and intervening precipitation anomalies. The southern Great Plains are a geographic center of patterns of hydrologic change. Drying is induced by atmospheric wave trains that span the Pacific and North America and place northerly flow anomalies above the southern Plains. In the southern Plains winter is least likely, and fall most likely, for drought onset and spring is least likely, and fall or summer most likely, for drought termination. Southern Plains soil moisture itself, which integrates precipitation over time, has a clear relationship to tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies with cold conditions favoring dry soils. Soil moisture change, however, though clearly driven by precipitation, has a weaker relation to SSTs and a strong relation to internal atmospheric variability. Little evidence is found of connection of drought onset and termination to driving by temperature anomalies. An analysis of particular drought onsets and terminations on the seasonal time scale reveals commonalities in terms of circulation and moisture transport anomalies over the southern Plains but a variety of ways in which these are connected into the large-scale atmosphere and ocean state. Some onsets are likely to be quite predictable due to forcing by cold tropical Pacific SSTs (e.g., fall 2010). Other onsets and all terminations are likely not predictable in terms of ocean conditions.
more » « less- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10124301
- Publisher / Repository:
- American Meteorological Society
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Hydrometeorology
- Volume:
- 20
- Issue:
- 4
- ISSN:
- 1525-755X
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- p. 751-771
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
more » « less
Abstract Compound drought and heatwave (CDHW) events have garnered much attention in recent studies. However, thus far, the identification of such events is oversimplified, and their association with natural climate variability is not fully explored. Here, we derive anomalies in the weekly self‐calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (sc_PDSI) and daily maximum temperatures to identify CDHW events from 1982 to 2016 over 26 climate regions across the globe. Using a Poisson Generalized Linear Model (GLM), we analyze yearly occurrences of seasonal CDHW events and their association with the warm and cold phases of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). ENSO exhibits robust association with CDHW events over the Southern Hemisphere during the austral summer and fall, while PDO influences their occurrences over the Western North America in the Northern Hemisphere during the boreal summer, which is supported by the composites of anomalies in the atmospheric circulations and surface energy budget. However, NAO association with CDHW events is relatively weak. The CDHW occurrence over other regions is driven by a combination of these large‐scale natural forcing. Our analyses also highlight that the cooccurrence of weekly to submonthly scale anomalies in the observed temperature and precipitation may not be always aligned between the observations and the reanalysis. Therefore, caution must be exercised while explaining such observed anomalies on the basis of reanalysis‐based circulations and surface energy budget. Overall, our analyses provide a new insight towards concurrent extremes and should help foster research efforts in this area.
-
more » « less
Abstract Droughts have a dominant three‐dimensional (3‐D) spatiotemporal structure typically spanning hundreds of kilometers and often lasting for months to years. Here, we introduced a novel framework to explore the 3‐D structure of the evolution of droughts based on network theory concepts. The proposed framework is applied to identify critical source regions responsible for large‐scale drought onsets during 1901–2014 for the North American continent using the Standardized Precipitation Evaporation Index (SPEI). We built a spatial network connecting the drought onset timings for the North American continent. Using a spatially weighted network partitioning algorithm, the whole continent is then classified into regional spatial drought networks (RSN), where droughts are more likely to propagate within these regional systems. Finally, a customized network metric was applied to identify locations (source regions) where the drought onsets further propagate to other areas within the regional spatial network. Our results indicated that the West coast, Texas coastal region, and Southeastern Arkansas as major source regions through which atmospheric drought propagates to Western, South Central, and Eastern North America. The formation of drought source regions are due to presence of high pressure ridges and anomalous wind patterns. Furthermore, our results indicate that the drought propagation from these source regions may be due to inadequate moisture transport. The proposed framework can help to develop an early warning detection system for droughts and other spatially extensive extreme events such as heatwaves and floods.
-
The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major source of interannual climate variability. ENSO life cycles and the associated teleconnections evolve over multiple years at a global scale. This analysis is the first attempt to characterize the structure of the risk posed by trans-Pacific ENSO teleconnections to crop production in the greater Pacific Basin region. In this analysis we identify the large-scale atmospheric dynamics of ENSO teleconnections that affect heat and moisture stress during the growing seasons of maize, wheat and soy. We propose a coherent framework for understanding how trans-Pacific ENSO teleconnections pose a correlated risk to crop yields in major agricultural belts of the Americas, Australia and China over the course of an ENSO life cycle by using observations and a multi-model ensemble of climate anomalies during crop flowering seasons. Trans-Pacific ENSO teleconnections are often (but not always) offsetting between major producing regions in the Americas and those in northern China or Australia. El Niños tend to create good maize and soybean growing conditions in the US and southeast South America, but poor growing conditions in northern China, southern Mexico and the Cerrado in Brazil. The opposite is true during La Niña. Wheat growing conditions in southeast South America generally have the opposite sign of those in Australia. Furthermore, multi-year La Niñas can force multi-year growing season anomalies in Argentina and Australia. Most ENSO teleconnections relevant for crop flowering seasons are the result of a single trans-Pacific circulation anomaly that develops in boreal summer and persists through the following spring. During the late summer and early fall of a developing ENSO event, the tropical Pacific forces an atmospheric anomaly in the northern midlatitudes that spans the Pacific from northern China to North America and in the southern midlatitudes from Australia to southeast South America. This anomaly directly links the soybean and maize growing seasons of the US, Mexico and China and the wheat growing seasons of Argentina, southern Brazil and Australia. The ENSO event peaks in boreal winter, when the atmospheric circulation anomalies intensify and affect maize and soybeans in southeast South America. As the event decays, the ENSO-induced circulation anomalies persist through the wheat flowering seasons in China and the US.more » « less
-
more » « less
Abstract The Mississippi River basin drains nearly one-half of the contiguous United States, and its rivers serve as economic corridors that facilitate trade and transportation. Flooding remains a perennial hazard on the major tributaries of the Mississippi River basin, and reducing the economic and humanitarian consequences of these events depends on improving their seasonal predictability. Here, we use climate reanalysis and river gauge data to document the evolution of floods on the Missouri and Ohio Rivers—the two largest tributaries of the Mississippi River—and how they are influenced by major modes of climate variability centered in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. We show that the largest floods on these tributaries are preceded by the advection and convergence of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico following distinct atmospheric mechanisms, where Missouri River floods are associated with heavy spring and summer precipitation events delivered by the Great Plains low-level jet, whereas Ohio River floods are associated with frontal precipitation events in winter when the North Atlantic subtropical high is anomalously strong. Further, we demonstrate that the El Niño–Southern Oscillation can serve as a precursor for floods on these rivers by mediating antecedent soil moisture, with Missouri River floods often preceded by a warm eastern tropical Pacific (El Niño) and Ohio River floods often preceded by a cool eastern tropical Pacific (La Niña) in the months leading up peak discharge. We also use recent floods in 2019 and 2021 to demonstrate how linking flood hazard to sea surface temperature anomalies holds potential to improve seasonal predictability of hydrologic extremes on these rivers.
