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1. Identification of Linear Non-{G}aussian Latent Hierarchical Structure

   Xie, Feng; Huang, Biwei; Chen, Zhengming; He, Yangbo; Geng, Zhi; Zhang, Kun (July 2022, Proceedings of Machine Learning Research)

   Chaudhuri, Kamalika; Jegelka, Stefanie; Song, Le; Szepesvari, Csaba; Niu, Gang; Sabato, Sivan (Ed.)

   Traditional causal discovery methods mainly focus on estimating causal relations among measured variables, but in many real-world problems, such as questionnaire-based psychometric studies, measured variables are generated by latent variables that are causally related. Accordingly, this paper investigates the problem of discovering the hidden causal variables and estimating the causal structure, including both the causal relations among latent variables and those between latent and measured variables. We relax the frequently-used measurement assumption and allow the children of latent variables to be latent as well, and hence deal with a specific type of latent hierarchical causal structure. In particular, we define a minimal latent hierarchical structure and show that for linear non-Gaussian models with the minimal latent hierarchical structure, the whole structure is identifiable from only the measured variables. Moreover, we develop a principled method to identify the structure by testing for Generalized Independent Noise (GIN) conditions in specific ways. Experimental results on both synthetic and real-world data show the effectiveness of the proposed approach. 

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2. Causal Effect Estimation with Mixed Latent Confounders and Post-treatment Variables

   Zhu, Yaochen; Ma, Jing; Wu, Liang; Guo, Qi; Hong, Liangjie; Li, Jundong (April 2025, International Conference on Learning Representations)

   Causal inference from observational data has attracted considerable attention among researchers. One main obstacle is the handling of confounders. As direct measurement of confounders may not be feasible, recent methods seek to address the confounding bias via proxy variables, i.e., covariates postulated to be conducive to the inference of latent confounders. However, the selected proxies may scramble both confounders and post-treatment variables in practice, which risks biasing the estimation by controlling for variables affected by the treatment. In this paper, we systematically investigate the bias due to latent post-treatment variables, i.e., latent post-treatment bias, in causal effect estimation. Specifically, we first derive the bias when selected proxies scramble both latent confounders and post-treatment variables, which we demonstrate can be arbitrarily bad. We then propose a Confounder-identifiable VAE (CiVAE) to address the bias. Based on a mild assumption that the prior of latent variables that generate the proxy belongs to a general exponential family with at least one invertible sufficient statistic in the factorized part, CiVAE individually identifies latent confounders and latent post-treatment variables up to bijective transformations. We then prove that with individual identification, the intractable disentanglement problem of latent confounders and post-treatment variables can be transformed into a tractable independence test problem despite arbitrary dependence may exist among them. Finally, we prove that the true causal effects can be unbiasedly estimated with transformed confounders inferred by CiVAE. Experiments on both simulated and real-world datasets demonstrate significantly improved robustness of CiVAE. 

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3. Testability of Instrumental Variables in Linear Non-Gaussian Acyclic Causal Models

   https://doi.org/10.3390/e24040512  

   Xie, Feng; He, Yangbo; Geng, Zhi; Chen, Zhengming; Hou, Ru; Zhang, Kun (April 2022, Entropy)

   This paper investigates the problem of selecting instrumental variables relative to a target causal influence X→Y from observational data generated by linear non-Gaussian acyclic causal models in the presence of unmeasured confounders. We propose a necessary condition for detecting variables that cannot serve as instrumental variables. Unlike many existing conditions for continuous variables, i.e., that at least two or more valid instrumental variables are present in the system, our condition is designed with a single instrumental variable. We then characterize the graphical implications of our condition in linear non-Gaussian acyclic causal models. Given that the existing graphical criteria for the instrument validity are not directly testable given observational data, we further show whether and how such graphical criteria can be checked by exploiting our condition. Finally, we develop a method to select the set of candidate instrumental variables given observational data. Experimental results on both synthetic and real-world data show the effectiveness of the proposed method. 

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4. Detecting confounders in multivariate time series using strength of causation

   Y. Liu, C (January 2023, EUSIPCO)

   One of the most important problems in science is understanding causation. This problem is particularly challenging when causation has to be inferred from observational data only. A further challenge of this problem is if the observed data were generated in the presence of latent confounders. In this paper, we propose a method for detecting confounders in multivariate time series using a recently introduced concept referred to as differential causal effect (DCE). The solution is based on feature-based Gaussian processes that are not only used for estimating the DCE of the observed time series but also for estimating the latent confounders. We demonstrate the performance of the proposed method with several examples. They show that the proposed approach can detect confounders and can accurately estimate causal strengths. 

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5. Text and Causal Inference: A Review of Using Text to Remove Confounding from Causal Estimates

   https://doi.org/10.18653/v1/2020.acl-main.474  

   Keith, Katherine; Jensen, David; O’Connor, Brendan (January 2020, Proceedings of the 58th Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics)

   Many applications of computational social science aim to infer causal conclusions from non-experimental data. Such observational data often contains confounders, variables that influence both potential causes and potential effects. Unmeasured or latent confounders can bias causal estimates, and this has motivated interest in measuring potential confounders from observed text. For example, an individual’s entire history of social media posts or the content of a news article could provide a rich measurement of multiple confounders.Yet, methods and applications for this problem are scattered across different communities and evaluation practices are inconsistent.This review is the first to gather and categorize these examples and provide a guide to data-processing and evaluation decisions. Despite increased attention on adjusting for confounding using text, there are still many open problems, which we highlight in this paper. 

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