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Time-varying linear state-space models are powerful tools for obtaining mathematically interpretable representations of neural signals. For example, switching and decomposed models describe complex systems using latent variables that evolve according to simple locally linear dynamics. However, existing methods for latent variable estimation are not robust to dynamical noise and system nonlinearity due to noise-sensitive inference procedures and limited model formulations. This can lead to inconsistent results on signals with similar dynamics, limiting the model's ability to provide scientific insight. In this work, we address these limitations and propose a probabilistic approach to latent variable estimation in decomposed models that improves robustness against dynamical noise. Additionally, we introduce an extended latent dynamics model to improve robustness against system nonlinearities. We evaluate our approach on several synthetic dynamical systems, including an empirically-derived brain-computer interface experiment, and demonstrate more accurate latent variable inference in nonlinear systems with diverse noise conditions. Furthermore, we apply our method to a real-world clinical neurophysiology dataset, illustrating the ability to identify interpretable and coherent structure where previous models cannot.
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Tree-Structured Recurrent Switching Linear Dynamical Systems for Multi-Scale Modeling
Many real-world systems studied are governed by complex, nonlinear dynamics. By modeling these dynamics, we can gain insight into how these systems work, make predictions about how they will behave, and develop strategies for controlling them. While there are many methods for modeling nonlinear dynamical systems, existing techniques face a trade off between offering interpretable descriptions and making accurate predictions. Here, we develop a class of models that aims to achieve both simultaneously, smoothly interpolating between simple descriptions and more complex, yet also more accurate models. Our probabilistic model achieves this multi-scale property through a hierarchy of locally linear dynamics that jointly approximate global nonlinear dynamics. We call it the tree-structured recurrent switching linear dynamical system. To fit this model, we present a fully-Bayesian sampling procedure using Polya-Gamma data augmentation to allow for fast and conjugate Gibbs sampling. Through a variety of synthetic and real examples, we show how these models outperform existing methods in both interpretability and predictive capability.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1734910
- PAR ID:
- 10129143
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- International Conference on Learning Representations (ICLR)
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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