skip to main content


Title: "So, where do you come from?" The impact of assumed spatial population structure on estimates of recruitment
Understanding population dynamics is essential for achieving sustainable and productive fisheries. However, estimating recruitment in a stock assessment model involves the challenging task of identifying a self-sustaining population, which often includes representing complex geographic structure. A review of several case studies demonstrated that alternative stock assessment models can influence estimates of recruitment. Incorporating spatial population structure and connectivity into stock assessment models changed the perception of recruit- ment events for a wide diversity of fisheries, but the degree to which estimates were impacted depended on movement rates and relative stock sizes. For multiple population components, estimates of strong recruitment events and the productivity of smaller population units were often more sensitive to connectivity assumptions. Simulation testing, conditioned on these case studies, suggested that accurately accounting for population structure, either in management unit definitions or stock assessment model structure, improved recruitment estimates. An understanding of movement dynamics improved estimation of connected sub-populations. The challenge of representing geographic structure in stock assessment emphasizes the importance of defining self- sustaining management units to justify a unit-stock assumption.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
1841435
NSF-PAR ID:
10137080
Author(s) / Creator(s):
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Fisheries research
Volume:
217
ISSN:
1872-6763
Page Range / eLocation ID:
156-186
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. Abstract

    Understanding large‐scale migratory behaviours, local movement patterns and population connectivity are critical to determining the natural processes and anthropogenic stressors that influence population dynamics and for developing effective conservation plans. Atlantic tarpon occur over a broad geographic range in the Atlantic Ocean where they support valuable subsistence, commercial and recreational fisheries. From 2001 through 2018, we deployed 292 satellite telemetry tags on Atlantic tarpon in coastal waters off three continents to document: (a) seasonal migrations and regional population connectivity; (b) freshwater and estuarine habitat utilization; (c) spawning locations; and (d) shark predation across the south‐eastern United States, Gulf of Mexico and northern Caribbean Sea. These results showed that some mature tarpon make long seasonal migrations over thousands of kilometres crossing state and national jurisdictional borders. Others showed more local movements and habitat use. The tag data also revealed potential spawning locations consistent with those inferred in other studies from observations of early life stage tarpon leptocephalus larvae. Our analyses indicated that shark predation mortality on released tarpon is higher than previously estimated, especially at ocean passes, river mouths and inlets to bays. To date, there has been no formal stock assessment of Atlantic tarpon, and regional fishery management plans do not exist. Our findings will provide critical input to these important efforts and assist the multinational community in the development of a stock‐wide management information system to support informed decision‐making for sustaining Atlantic tarpon fisheries.

     
    more » « less
  2. Otolith chemistry has gained increasing attention as a tool for analyzing various aspects of fish biology, such as stock dynamics, migration patterns, hypoxia and pollution exposure, and connectivity between habitats. While these studies often assume otolith elemental concentrations reflect environmental conditions, physiological processes are increasingly recognized as a modulating and/or controlling factor. In particular, biomineralization—the complex, enzyme-regulated construction of CaCO3 crystals scaffolded by proteins—is believed to play a critical role in governing otolith chemical patterns. This review aims to summarize the knowledge on otolith composition and biophysical drivers of biomineralization, present hypotheses on how biomineralization should affect element incorporation, and test the validity thereof with selected case studies. Tracers of environmental history are assumed to be dominated by elements that substitute for Ca during crystal growth or that occur randomly trapped within the crystal lattice. Strontium (Sr) and barium (Ba) largely comply with the biomineralization-based hypotheses that otolith element patterns reflect environmental concentrations, without additional effects of salinity, but can be influenced by physiological processes, typically exhibiting decreasing incorporation with increasing growth. Conversely, tracers of physiology are assumed to be elements under physiological control and primarily occur protein-bound in the otolith’s organic matrix. Physiological tracers are hypothesized to reflect feeding rate and/or growth, decrease with fish age, and exhibit minimal influence of environmental concentration. The candidate elements phosphorus (P), copper (Cu) and zinc (Zn) confirm these hypotheses. Magnesium (Mg) is believed to be randomly trapped in the crystal structure and hence a candidate for environmental reconstruction, but the response to all examined drivers suggest Mg to be coupled to growth. Manganese (Mn) substitutes for Ca, but is also a co-factor in matrix proteins, and therefore exhibits otolith patterns reflecting both environmental (concentration and salinity) and physiological (ontogeny and growth) histories. A consistent temperature response was not evident across studies for either environmental or physiological tracers, presumably attributable to variable relationships between temperature and fish behavior and physiology (e.g., feeding rate, reproduction). Biomineralization thus has a controlling effect on otolith element concentrations for elements that are linked with somatic growth, but not for elements that substitute for Ca in the crystal lattice. Interpretation of the ecological significance of patterns from field samples therefore needs to consider the impact of the underlying biomineralization processes of the element in question as well as physiological processes regulating the availability of ions for inclusion in the growing crystal lattice. Such understanding will enhance the utility of this technique to address fisheries management questions. 
    more » « less
  3. Griffith, Gary (Ed.)
    Abstract The stock–recruitment relationship is the basis of any stock prediction and thus fundamental for fishery management. Traditional parametric stock–recruitment models often poorly fit empirical data, nevertheless they are still the rule in fish stock assessment procedures. We here apply a multi-model approach to predict recruitment of 20 Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) stocks as a function of adult biomass and environmental variables. We compare the traditional Ricker model with two non-parametric approaches: (i) the stochastic cusp model from catastrophe theory and (ii) multivariate simplex projections, based on attractor state-space reconstruction. We show that the performance of each model is contingent on the historical dynamics of individual stocks, and that stocks which experienced abrupt and state-dependent dynamics are best modelled using non-parametric approaches. These dynamics are pervasive in Western stocks highlighting a geographical distinction between cod stocks, which have implications for their recovery potential. Furthermore, the addition of environmental variables always improved the models’ predictive power indicating that they should be considered in stock assessment and management routines. Using our multi-model approach, we demonstrate that we should be more flexible when modelling recruitment and tailor our approaches to the dynamical properties of each individual stock. 
    more » « less
  4. null (Ed.)
    Marine organisms are exposed to stressors associated with climate change throughout their life cycle, but a majority of studies focus on responses in single life stages, typically early ones. Here, we examined how negative impacts from stressors associated with climate change, ocean acidification, and pollution can act across multiple life stages to influence long-term population dynamics and decrease resilience to mass mortality events. We used a continuous-size-structured density-dependent model for abalone ( Haliotis spp.), calcifying mollusks that support valuable fisheries, to explore the sensitivity of stock abundance and annual catch to potential changes in growth, survival, and fecundity across the organism’s lifespan. Our model predicts that decreased recruitment from lowered fertilization success or larval survival has small negative impacts on the population, and that stock size and fishery performance are much more sensitive to changes in parameters that affect the size or survival of adults. Sensitivity to impacts on subadults and juveniles is also important for the population, though less so than for adults. Importantly, likelihood of recovery following mortality events showed more pronounced sensitivity to most possible parameter impacts, greater than the effects on equilibrium density or catch. Our results suggest that future experiments on environmental stressors should focus on multiple life stages to capture effects on population structure and dynamics, particularly for species with size-dependent fecundity. 
    more » « less
  5. Lankes, R.David (Ed.)
    Resilience is often treated as a single-dimension system attribute, or various dimensions of resilience are studied separately without considering multi-dimensionality. The increasing frequency of catastrophic natural or man-made disasters affecting rural areas demands holistic assessments of community vulnerability and assessment. Disproportionate effects of disasters on minorities, low-income, hard-to-reach, and vulnerable populations demand a community-oriented planning approach to address the “resilience divide.” Rural areas have many advantages, but low population density, coupled with dispersed infrastructures and community support networks, make these areas more affected by natural disasters. This paper will catalyze three key learnings from our current work in public librarians’ roles in disaster resiliency: 1) rural communities are composed of diverse sub-communities, each which experiences and responds to traumatic events differently, depending on micro-geographic and demographic drivers; 2) public libraries are central to rural life, providing a range of informational, educational, social, and personal services, especially in remote areas that lack reliable access to community resources during disasters; and 3) rural citizens tend to be very self-reliant and are committed to strengthening and sustaining community resiliency with local human capital and resources. Public libraries and their librarian leaders are often a “crown jewel” of rural areas’ community infrastructure and this paper will present a community-based design and assessment process for resiliency hubs located in and operated through rural public libraries. The core technical and social science research questions explored in the proposed paper are: 1) Who were the key beneficiaries and what did they need? 2) What was the process of designing a resiliency hub? 3) What did library resiliency hubs provide and how can they be sustained? This resiliency hub study will detail co-production of solutions and involves an inclusive collaboration among researchers, librarians, and community members to address the effects of cascading impacts of natural disasters. The novel co-design process detailed in the paper reflects 1) an in-depth understanding of the complex interactions among libraries, residents, governments, and other agencies by collecting sociotechnical hurricane-related data for Calhoun County, Florida, USA, a region devastated by Hurricane Michael (2018) and hard-hit by Covid-19; 2) analyzed data from newly-developed fusing algorithms and incorporating multiple communities; and 3) co-designed resiliency hubs sited in public libraries. This research leverages a unique opportunity for the co-development of integrated library-centered policies and technologies to establish a new paradigm for developing disaster resiliency in rural settings. Public libraries serve a diverse population who will directly benefit from practical support tailored to their needs. The project will inform efficient plans to ensure that high-need groups are not isolated in disasters. The knowledge and insight gained from disseminating the study’s results will not only improve our understanding of emergency response operations, but also will contribute to the development of new disaster-related policies and plans for public libraries, with a broader application to rural communities in many settings. 
    more » « less