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1. Climate change extinctions

   https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adp4461  

   Urban, Mark C (December 2024, Science)

   Climate change is expected to cause irreversible changes to biodiversity, but predicting those risks remains uncertain. I synthesized 485 studies and more than 5 million projections to produce a quantitative global assessment of climate change extinctions. With increased certainty, this meta-analysis suggests that extinctions will accelerate rapidly if global temperatures exceed 1.5°C. The highest-emission scenario would threaten approximately one-third of species, globally. Amphibians; species from mountain, island, and freshwater ecosystems; and species inhabiting South America, Australia, and New Zealand face the greatest threats. In line with predictions, climate change has contributed to an increasing proportion of observed global extinctions since 1970. Besides limiting greenhouse gases, pinpointing which species to protect first will be critical for preserving biodiversity until anthropogenic climate change is halted and reversed. 

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2. Continental flood basalts drive Phanerozoic extinctions

   https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2120441119  

   Green, Theodore; Renne, Paul R.; Keller, C. Brenhin (September 2022, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences)

   Refinements of the geological timescale driven by the increasing precision and accuracy of radiometric dating have revealed an apparent correlation between large igneous provinces (LIPs) and intervals of Phanerozoic faunal turnover that has been much discussed at a qualitative level. However, the extent to which such correlations are likely to occur by chance has yet to be quantitatively tested, and other kill mechanisms have been suggested for many mass extinctions. Here, we show that the degree of temporal correlation between continental LIPs and faunal turnover in the Phanerozoic is unlikely to occur by chance, suggesting a causal relationship linking extinctions and continental flood basalts. The relationship is stronger for LIPs with higher estimated eruptive rates and for stage boundaries with higher extinction magnitudes. This suggests LIP magma degassing as a primary kill mechanism for mass extinctions and other intervals of faunal turnover, which may be related to CO 2 ,   SO 2 , Cl, and F release. Our results suggest continental LIPs as a major, direct driver of extinctions throughout the Phanerozoic. 

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3. Mass extinctions and their rebounds: a macroevolutionary framework

   https://doi.org/10.1017/pab.2024.13  

   Jablonski, David; Edie, Stewart M (February 2025, Paleobiology)

   Abstract Mass extinctions are natural experiments on the short- and long-term consequences of pushing biotas past breaking points, often with lasting effects on the structure and function of biodiversity. General properties of mass extinctions—exceptionally severe, taxonomically broad, global losses of taxa—are starting to come into focus through comparisons among dimensions of biodiversity, including morphological, functional, and phylogenetic diversity. Notably, functional diversity tends to persist despite severe losses of taxonomic diversity, whereas taxic and morphological losses may or may not be coupled. One of the biggest challenges in synthesizing and extracting general consequences of these events has been that they are often driven by multiple, interacting pressures, and the taxa and their traits vary among events, making it difficult to link single stressors to specific traits. Ongoing improvements in the taxonomic and stratigraphic resolution of these events for multiple clades will sharpen tests for selectivity and help to isolate hitchhiking effects, whereby organismal traits are carried by differential survival or extinction of taxa owing to other organismal or higher-level attributes, such as geographic-range size. Direct comparative analyses across multiple extinction events will also clarify the impacts of particular drivers on taxa, functional traits, and morphologies. It is not just the extinction filter that deserves attention, as the longer-term impact of extinctions derives in part from their ensuing rebounds. More work is needed to uncover the biotic and abiotic circumstances that spur some clades into re-diversification while relegating others to marginal shares of biodiversity. Combined insights from mass extinction filters and their rebounds bring a macroevolutionary view to approaching the biodiversity crisis in the Anthropocene, helping to pinpoint the clades, functional groups, and morphologies most vulnerable to extinction and failed rebounds. 

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4. Quaternary megafauna extinctions altered body size distribution in tortoises

   https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2022.1947  

   Joos, Julia; Pimiento, Catalina; Miles, Donald B; Müller, Johannes (November 2022, Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences)

   The late Quaternary is characterized by the extinction of many terrestrial megafauna, which included tortoises (Family: Testudinidae). However, limited information is available on how extinction shaped the phenotype of surviving taxa. Here, based on a global dataset of straight carapace length, we investigate the temporal variation, spatial distribution and evolution of tortoise body size over the past 23 million years, thereby capturing the effects of Quaternary extinctions in this clade. We found a significant change in body size distribution characterized by a reduction of both mean body size and maximum body size of extant tortoises relative to fossil taxa. This reduction of body size occurred earlier in mainland (Early Pleistocene 2.588–0.781 Ma) than in island tortoises (Late Pleistocene/Holocene 0.126–0 Ma). Despite contrasting body size patterns between fossil and extant taxa on a spatial scale, tortoise body size showed limited variation over time until this decline. Body size is a fundamental functional trait determining many aspects of species ecologies, with large tortoises playing key roles as ecosystem engineers. As such, the transition from larger sized to smaller sized classes indicated by our findings likely resulted in the homogenization of tortoises' ecological functions and diminished the role of tortoises in structuring the vegetation community. 

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5. Selectivity of mass extinctions: Patterns, processes, and future directions

   https://doi.org/10.1017/ext.2023.10  

   Payne, Jonathan L.; Al Aswad, Jood A.; Deutsch, Curtis; Monarrez, Pedro M.; Penn, Justin L.; Singh, Pulkit (January 2023, Cambridge Prisms: Extinction)

   Abstract A central question in the study of mass extinction is whether these events simply intensify background extinction processes and patterns versus change the driving mechanisms and associated patterns of selectivity. Over the past two decades, aided by the development of new fossil occurrence databases, selectivity patterns associated with mass extinction have become increasingly well quantified and their differences from background patterns established. In general, differences in geographic range matter less during mass extinction than during background intervals, while differences in respiratory and circulatory anatomy that may correlate with tolerance to rapid change in oxygen availability, temperature, and pH show greater evidence of selectivity during mass extinction. The recent expansion of physiological experiments on living representatives of diverse clades and the development of simple, quantitative theories linking temperature and oxygen availability to the extent of viable habitat in the oceans have enabled the use of Earth system models to link geochemical proxy constraints on environmental change with quantitative predictions of the amount and biogeography of habitat loss. Early indications are that the interaction between physiological traits and environmental change can explain substantial proportions of observed extinction selectivity for at least some mass extinction events. A remaining challenge is quantifying the effects of primary extinction resulting from the limits of physiological tolerance versus secondary extinction resulting from the loss of taxa on which a given species depended ecologically. The calibration of physiology-based models to past extinction events will enhance their value in prediction and mitigation efforts related to the current biodiversity crisis. 

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