Abstract Observations show increases in river discharge to the Arctic Ocean especially in winter over the last decades but the physical mechanisms driving these changes are not yet fully understood. We hypothesize that even in the absence of a precipitation increase, permafrost degradation alone can lead to increased annual river runoff. To test this hypothesis we perform 12 millennium-long simulations over an idealized hypothetical watershed (1 km 2 ) using a distributed, physically based water balance model (Water flow and Balance Simulation Model, WaSiM). The model is forced by both a hypothetical warming defined by an air temperature increase of 7.5 ∘ C over 100 years, and a corresponding cooling scenario. To assess model sensitivity we vary soil saturated hydraulic conductivity and lateral subsurface flow configuration. Under the warming scenario, changes in subsurface water transport due to ground temperature changes result in a 7%–14% increase in annual runoff accompanied by a 6%–20% decrease in evapotranspiration. The increase in runoff is most pronounced in winter. Hence, the simulations demonstrate that changes in permafrost characteristics due to climate warming and associated changes in evapotranspiration provide a plausible mechanism for the observed runoff increases in Arctic watersheds. In addition, our experiments show that when lateral subsurface moisture transport is not included, as commonly done in global-scale Earth System Models, the equilibrium water balance in response to the warming or cooling is similar to the water balance in simulations where lateral subsurface transport is included. However, the transient changes in water balance components prior to reaching equilibrium differ greatly between the two. For example, for high saturated hydraulic conductivity only when lateral subsurface transport is considered, a period of decreased runoff occurs immediately after the warming. This period is characterized by a positive change in soil moisture storage caused by the soil moisture deficit developed during prior cooling.
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Changing characteristics of runoff and freshwater export from watersheds draining northern Alaska
Abstract. The quantity and quality of river discharge in Arctic regions is influenced by many processes including climate, watershed attributes and, increasingly, hydrological cycle intensification and permafrost thaw. We used a hydrological model to quantify baseline conditions and investigate the changing character of hydrological elements for Arctic watersheds between Utqiagvik (formerly known as Barrow)) and just west of Mackenzie River over the period 1981–2010. A synthesis of measurements and model simulations shows that the region exports 31.9 km3 yr−1 of freshwater via river discharge, with 55.5 % (17.7 km3 yr−1) coming collectively from the Colville, Kuparuk, and Sagavanirktok rivers. The simulations point to significant (p<0.05) increases (134 %–212 % of average) in cold season discharge (CSD) for several large North Slope rivers including the Colville and Kuparuk, and for the region as a whole. A significant increase in the proportion of subsurface runoff to total runoff is noted for the region and for 24 of the 42 study basins, with the change most prevalent across the northern foothills of the Brooks Range. Relatively large increases in simulated active-layer thickness (ALT) suggest a physical connection between warming climate, permafrost degradation, and increasing subsurface flow to streams and rivers. A decline in terrestrial water storage (TWS) is attributed to losses in soil ice that outweigh gains in soil liquid water storage. Over the 30-year period, the timing of peak spring (freshet) discharge shifts earlier by 4.5 d, though the time trend is only marginally (p=0.1) significant. These changing characteristics of Arctic rivers have important implications for water, carbon, and nutrient cycling in coastal environments.
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- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10144085
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- The Cryosphere
- Volume:
- 13
- Issue:
- 12
- ISSN:
- 1994-0424
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 3337 to 3352
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Abstract The Yenisei River is the largest contributor of freshwater and energy fluxes among all rivers draining to the Arctic Ocean. Modeling long-term variability of Eurasian runoff to the Arctic Ocean is complicated by the considerable variability of river discharge in time and space, and the monitoring constraints imposed by a sparse gauged-flow network and paucity of satellite data. We quantify tree growth response to river discharge at the upper reaches of the Yenisei River in Tuva, South Siberia. Two regression models built from eight tree-ring width chronologies of Larix sibirica are applied to reconstruct winter (Nov–Apr) discharge for the period 1784–1997 (214 years), and annual (Oct–Sept) discharge for the period 1701–2000 (300 years). The Nov–Apr model explains 52% of the discharge variance whereas Oct–Sept explains 26% for the calibration intervals 1927–1997 and 1927–2000, respectively. This new hydrological archive doubles the length of the instrumental discharge record at the Kyzyl gauge and resets the temporal background of discharge variability back to 1784. The reconstruction finds a remarkable 80% upsurge in winter flow over the last 25 years, which is unprecedented in the last 214 years. In contrast, annual discharge fluctuated normally for this system, with only a 7% increase over the last 25 years. Water balance modeling with CRU data manifests a significant discrepancy between decadal variability of the gauged flow and climate data after 1960. We discuss the impact on the baseflow rate change of both the accelerating permafrost warming in the discontinuous zone of South Siberia and widespread forest fires. The winter discharge accounts for only one third of the annual flow, yet the persistent 25 year upsurge is alarming. This trend is likely caused by Arctic Amplification, which can be further magnified by increased winter flow delivering significantly more fresh water to the Kara Sea during the cold season.more » « less
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Abstract The climate of the Arctic region is changing rapidly, with important implications for permafrost, vegetation communities, and transport of solutes by streams and rivers to the Arctic Ocean. While research on Arctic streams and rivers has accelerated in recent years, long‐term records are relatively rare compared to temperate and tropical regions. We began monitoring the upper Kuparuk River in 1983 as part of a long‐term, low‐level, whole‐season phosphorus enrichment of a 4–6 km experimental reach, which was subsequently incorporated into the Arctic Long‐Term Ecological Research (Arctic LTER) programme. The phosphorus enrichment phase of the Upper Kuparuk River Experiment (UKRE) ran continuously for 34 seasons, fundamentally altering the community structure and function of the Fertilized reach. The objectives of this paper are to (a) update observations of the environmental conditions in the Kuparuk River region as revealed by long‐term, catchment‐level monitoring, (b) compare long‐term trends in biogeochemical characteristics of phosphorus‐enriched and reference reaches of the Kuparuk River, and (c) report results from a new ‘ReFertilization’ experiment. During the UKRE, temperature and discharge did not change significantly, though precipitation increased slightly. However, the UKRE revealed unexpected community state changes attributable to phosphorus enrichment (e.g., appearance of colonizing bryophytes) and long‐term legacy effects of these state changes after cessation of the phosphorus enrichment. The UKRE also revealed important biogeochemical trends (e.g., increased nitrate flux and benthic C:N, decreased DOP flux). The decrease in DOP is particularly notable in that this may be a pan‐Arctic trend related to permafrost thaw and exposure to new sources of iron that reduce phosphorus mobility to streams and rivers. The trends revealed by the UKRE would have been difficult or impossible to identify without long‐term, catchment level research and may have important influences on connections between Arctic headwater catchments and downstream receiving waters, including the Arctic Ocean.
- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3337-2019
