skip to main content


Title: Measuring the predictability of life outcomes with a scientific mass collaboration
How predictable are life trajectories? We investigated this question with a scientific mass collaboration using the common task method; 160 teams built predictive models for six life outcomes using data from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study, a high-quality birth cohort study. Despite using a rich dataset and applying machine-learning methods optimized for prediction, the best predictions were not very accurate and were only slightly better than those from a simple benchmark model. Within each outcome, prediction error was strongly associated with the family being predicted and weakly associated with the technique used to generate the prediction. Overall, these results suggest practical limits to the predictability of life outcomes in some settings and illustrate the value of mass collaborations in the social sciences.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
1750729 1735095 1704444 1760052
NSF-PAR ID:
10171692
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; more » ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; « less
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Volume:
117
Issue:
15
ISSN:
0027-8424
Page Range / eLocation ID:
8398 to 8403
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. Abstract Objective

    Common obesity‐associated genetic variants at the fat mass and obesity‐associated (FTO) locus have been associated with appetitive behaviors and altered structure and function of frontostriatal brain regions. The authors aimed to investigate the influence ofFTOvariation on frontostriatal appetite circuits in early life.

    Methods

    Data were drawn from RESONANCE, a longitudinal study of early brain development. Growth trajectories of nucleus accumbens and frontal lobe volumes, as well as total gray matter and white matter volume, by risk allele (AA) carrier status onFTOsingle‐nucleotide polymorphism rs9939609 were examined in 228 children (102 female, 126 male) using magnetic resonance imaging assessments obtained from infancy through middle childhood. The authors fit functional concurrent regression models with brain volume outcomes over age as functional responses, andFTOgenotype, sex, BMIzscore, and maternal education were included as predictors.

    Results

    Bootstrap pointwise 95% CI for regression coefficient functions in the functional concurrent regression models showed that the AA group versus the group with no risk allele (TT) had greater nucleus accumbens volume (adjusted for total brain volume) in the interval of 750 to 2250 days (2–6 years).

    Conclusions

    These findings suggest that common genetic risk for obesity is associated with differences in early development of brain reward circuitry and argue for investigating dynamic relationships among genotype, brain, behavior, and weight throughout development.

     
    more » « less
  2. Aim

    Malnutrition has been reported in the literature to be adversely associated with outcomes in paediatric malignancies. Our objective in this paper was to evaluate malnutrition as a potential predictor for adverse outcomes in febrile neutropenia associated with haematological malignancies.

    Methods

    A prospective observational study was performed in a tertiary care teaching hospital of Kolkata, India. Forty‐eight participants, suffering from haematological malignancy, were included. Participants were included if they experienced at least one episode of febrile neutropenia. For children aged <5 years, weight for height, height for age and weight for age were used as criteria for defining malnutrition, while body mass index for age was used in children ≥5 years. A total of 162 episodes of febrile neutropenia were studied.

    Results

    Thirty patients (30/48, 62.5%) included in the study had malnutrition. In bivariate analyses at patient level, there is a strong association between malnutrition and death (odds ratio (OR) 7.286, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.838–63.345, one‐tailedP = 0.044), and life‐threatening complications show a moderate trend towards significance (OR 3.333, 95% CI 0.791–14.052, one‐tailedP = 0.084). Survival functions were significantly different between malnourished and non‐malnourished children (log rank test χ2 = 4.609, degree of freedom = 1,P = 0.032). Wasting was associated with life‐threatening complications in children aged <5 years (OR 14, 95% CI 1.135–172.642, one‐tailedP = 0.036). Logistic regression analyses at episode level revealed that phase of treatment and respiratory system involvement were significant predictors of death, while malnutrition was not.

    Conclusion

    Malnutrition may be a potential predictor of mortality in febrile neutropenia.

     
    more » « less
  3. Abstract from the article associated with the dataset: George, Mullinix, et al PeerJ 2021. Reef-building corals are ecosystem engineers that compete with other benthic or- ganisms for space and resources. Corals harvest energy through their surface by photosynthesis and heterotrophic feeding, and they divert part of this energy to defend their outer colony perimeter against competitors. Here, we hypothesized that corals with a larger space-filling surface and smaller perimeters increase energy gain while reducing the exposure to competitors. This predicted an association between these two geometric properties of corals and the competitive outcome against other benthic organisms. To test the prediction, fifty coral colonies from the Caribbean island of Curac ̧ao were rendered using digital 3D and 2D reconstructions. The surface areas, perimeters, box-counting dimensions (as a proxy of space-filling property), and other geometric properties were extracted and analyzed with respect to the percentage of the perimeter losing or winning against competitors based on the coral tissue apparent growth or damage. The increase in surface space-filling dimension was the only significant single indicator of coral winning outcomes, but the combination of surface space-filling dimension with perimeter length increased the statistical prediction of coral competition outcomes. Corals with larger surface space-filling dimensions (Ds > 2) and smaller perimeters displayed more winning outcomes, confirming the initial hypothesis. We propose that the space-filling property of coral surfaces complemented with other proxies of coral competitiveness, such as life history traits, will provide a more accurate quantitative characterization of coral competition outcomes on coral reefs. This framework also applies to other organisms or ecological systems that rely on complex surfaces to obtain energy for competition. For the compressed files: - Reconstruction of the split file can be accomplished by issuing the command cat *.tar.bz2*part-a* > 3D_model_stl_data.tar.bz2 - Unzipping the compressed files can be accomplished by issuing the command tar -jxvf *.tar.bz2 
    more » « less
  4. Abstract

    Foraging outcomes dictate the nutritional resources available to an organism and may vary with intrinsic factors, like age. Thus, understanding how age affects foraging performance, alone or in interaction with extrinsic factors (like environmental quality), improves our understanding of aging processes in the wild. We examined how foraging traits, measured across five breeding seasons, change with age, environmental variation, and their interaction in Nazca boobies (Sula granti), a pelagic seabird in Galápagos. We evaluated the hypotheses that (1) foraging performance is better in middle‐aged birds than in young ones, and that (2) foraging performance is better in middle‐aged birds than in old ones. Furthermore, favorable environmental conditions will either (3) attenuate age differences in foraging performance (by relieving constraints on young, inexperienced and old, senescent age classes), or (4) accentuate age differences (if middle‐aged birds can exploit abundant resources better than other age classes can). Incubating birds tagged with GPS loggers (N = 815) provided data on foraging performance (e.g., total distance traveled, mass gained) to evaluate interactions between age and environmental variation (e.g., sea surface temperature). Poor environmental conditions associated with the cool phase of the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation increased foraging effort, including foraging distance and duration, for example. Across age classes, foraging boobies responded similarly to environmental variation except for female mass gain rate: age‐related declines in mass gain rate were reduced under favorable environmental conditions. Birds of different ages also searched in somewhat distinct areas in the poor conditions of 2016, but not in other years. In several foraging traits, including foraging duration and distance, female boobies showed predicted early‐life improvement and late‐life decline, following the established pattern for reproductive traits in this species. Thus, deficits in resource acquisition (this study) may contribute to the poor survival and reproductive outcomes previously observed in old Nazca boobies, particularly in females.

     
    more » « less
  5. Background

    Maternal loneliness is associated with adverse physical and mental health outcomes for both the mother and her child. Detecting maternal loneliness noninvasively through wearable devices and passive sensing provides opportunities to prevent or reduce the impact of loneliness on the health and well-being of the mother and her child.

    Objective

    The aim of this study is to use objective health data collected passively by a wearable device to predict maternal (social) loneliness during pregnancy and the postpartum period and identify the important objective physiological parameters in loneliness detection.

    Methods

    We conducted a longitudinal study using smartwatches to continuously collect physiological data from 31 women during pregnancy and the postpartum period. The participants completed the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) loneliness questionnaire in gestational week 36 and again at 12 weeks post partum. Responses to this questionnaire and background information of the participants were collected through our customized cross-platform mobile app. We leveraged participants’ smartwatch data from the 7 days before and the day of their completion of the UCLA questionnaire for loneliness prediction. We categorized the loneliness scores from the UCLA questionnaire as loneliness (scores≥12) and nonloneliness (scores<12). We developed decision tree and gradient-boosting models to predict loneliness. We evaluated the models by using leave-one-participant-out cross-validation. Moreover, we discussed the importance of extracted health parameters in our models for loneliness prediction.

    Results

    The gradient boosting and decision tree models predicted maternal social loneliness with weighted F1-scores of 0.897 and 0.872, respectively. Our results also show that loneliness is highly associated with activity intensity and activity distribution during the day. In addition, resting heart rate (HR) and resting HR variability (HRV) were correlated with loneliness.

    Conclusions

    Our results show the potential benefit and feasibility of using passive sensing with a smartwatch to predict maternal loneliness. Our developed machine learning models achieved a high F1-score for loneliness prediction. We also show that intensity of activity, activity pattern, and resting HR and HRV are good predictors of loneliness. These results indicate the intervention opportunities made available by wearable devices and predictive models to improve maternal well-being through early detection of loneliness.

     
    more » « less