Quantitative verification tools compute probabilities, expected rewards, or steady-state values for formal models of stochastic and timed systems. Exact results often cannot be obtained efficiently, so most tools use floating-point arithmetic in iterative algorithms that approximate the quantity of interest. Correctness is thus defined by the desired precision and determines performance. In this paper, we report on the experimental evaluation of these trade-offs performed in QComp 2020: the second friendly competition of tools for the analysis of quantitative formal models. We survey the precision guarantees—ranging from exact rational results to statistical confidence statements—offered by the nine participating tools. They gave rise to a performance evaluation using five tracks with varying correctness criteria, of which we present the results.
more »
« less
Exact quantitative probabilistic model checking through rational search
Model checking systems formalized using probabilistic models such as discrete time Markov chains (DTMCs) and Markov decision processes (MDPs) can be reduced to computing constrained reachability properties. Linear programming methods to compute reachability probabilities for DTMCs and MDPs do not scale to large models. Thus, model checking tools often employ iterative methods to approximate reachability probabilities. These approximations can be far from the actual probabilities, leading to inaccurate model checking results. On the other hand, specialized techniques employed in existing state-of-the-art exact quantitative model checkers, don’t scale as well as their iterative counterparts. In this work, we present a new model checking algorithm that improves the approximate results obtained by scalable iterative techniques to compute exact reachability probabilities. Our techniques are implemented as an extension of the PRISM model checker and are evaluated against other exact quantitative model checking engines.
more »
« less
- PAR ID:
- 10194353
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Formal Methods in System Design
- ISSN:
- 0925-9856
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
null (Ed.)We present a predictive runtime monitoring technique for estimating future vehicle positions and the probability of collisions with obstacles. Vehicle dynamics model how the position and velocity change over time as a function of external inputs. They are commonly described by discrete-time stochastic models. Whereas positions and velocities can be measured, the inputs (steering and throttle) are not directly measurable in these models. In our paper, we apply Bayesian inference techniques for real-time estimation, given prior distribution over the unknowns and noisy state measurements. Next, we pre-compute the set-valued reachability analysis to approximate future positions of a vehicle. The pre-computed reachability sets are combined with the posterior probabilities computed through Bayesian estimation to provided a predictive verification framework that can be used to detect impending collisions with obstacles. Our approach is evaluated using the coordinated-turn vehicle model for a UAV using on-board measurement data obtained from a flight test of a Talon UAV. We also compare the results with sampling-based approaches. We find that precomputed reachability analysis can provide accurate warnings up to 6 seconds in advance and the accuracy of the warnings improve as the time horizon is narrowed from 6 to 2 seconds. The approach also outperforms sampling in terms of on-board computation cost and accuracy measures.more » « less
-
Robust Markov decision processes (MDPs) compute reliable solutions for dynamic decision problems with partially-known transition probabilities. Unfortunately, accounting for uncertainty in the transition probabilities significantly increases the computational complexity of solving robust MDPs, which limits their scalability. This paper describes new, efficient algorithms for solving the common class of robust MDPs with s- and sa-rectangular ambiguity sets defined by weighted L1 norms. We propose partial policy iteration, a new, efficient, flexible, and general policy iteration scheme for robust MDPs. We also propose fast methods for computing the robust Bellman operator in quasi-linear time, nearly matching the ordinary Bellman operator's linear complexity. Our experimental results indicate that the proposed methods are many orders of magnitude faster than the state-of-the-art approach, which uses linear programming solvers combined with a robust value iteration.more » « less
-
We investigate approximate Bayesian inference techniques for nonlinear systems described by ordinary differential equation (ODE) models. In particular, the approximations will be based on set-valued reachability analysis approaches, yielding approximate models for the posterior distribution. Nonlinear ODEs are widely used to mathematically describe physical and biological models. However, these models are often described by parameters that are not directly measurable and have an impact on the system behaviors. Often, noisy measurement data combined with physical/biological intuition serve as the means for finding appropriate values of these parameters.Our approach operates under a Bayesian framework, given prior distribution over the parameter space and noisy observations under a known sampling distribution. We explore subsets of the space of model parameters, computing bounds on the likelihood for each subset. This is performed using nonlinear set-valued reachability analysis that is made faster by means of linearization around a reference trajectory. The tiling of the parameter space can be adaptively refined to make bounds on the likelihood tighter. We evaluate our approach on a variety of nonlinear benchmarks and compare our results with Markov Chain Monte Carlo and Sequential Monte Carlo approaches.more » « less
-
We examine a novel setting in which two parties have partial knowledge of the elements that make up a Markov Decision Process (MDP) and must cooperate to compute and execute an optimal policy for the problem constructed from those elements. This situation arises when one party wants to give a robot some task, but does not wish to divulge those details to a second party-while the second party possesses sensitive data about the robot's dynamics (information needed for planning). Both parties want the robot to perform the task successfully, but neither is willing to disclose any more information than is absolutely necessary. We utilize techniques from secure multi-party computation, combining primitives and algorithms to construct protocols that can compute an optimal policy while ensuring that the policy remains opaque by being split across both parties. To execute a split policy, we also give a protocol that enables the robot to determine what actions to trigger, while the second party guards against attempts to probe for information inconsistent with the policy's prescribed execution. In order to improve scalability, we find that basis functions and constraint sampling methods are useful in forming effective approximate MDPs. We report simulation results examining performance and precision, and assess the scaling properties of our Python implementation. We also describe a hardware proof-of-feasibility implementation using inexpensive physical robots, which, being a small-scale instance, can be solved directly.more » « less
An official website of the United States government

