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1. Magnetic helicity and eruptivity in active region 12673

   https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/201935870  

   Moraitis, K. ; Sun, X. ; Pariat, É. ; Linan, L. ( August 2019 , Astronomy & Astrophysics)

   Context . In September 2017, the largest X-class flare of solar cycle 24 occurred from the most active region (AR) of this cycle, AR 12673. This AR attracted much interest because of its unique morphological and evolution characteristics. Among the parameters that were examined in the AR was magnetic helicity, but either only approximately, or intermittently, or both. Aims . We here study the evolution of the relative magnetic helicity and of the two components of its decomposition, the non-potential, and the volume-threading one, in the time interval around the highest activity of AR 12673. We especially focus on the ratio of the non-potential to total helicity, which has recently been proposed as an indicator of AR eruptivity. Methods . We first approximated the coronal magnetic field of the AR with two different optimization-based extrapolation procedures, and chose the method that produced the most reliable helicity value at each instant. Moreover, in one of these methods, we weighted the optimization by the uncertainty estimates derived from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) instrument for the first time. We then followed an accurate method to compute all quantities of interest. Results . The first observational determination of the evolution of the non-potential to total helicity ratio seems to confirm the quality it has in indicating eruptivity. This ratio increased before the major flares of AR 12673 and afterwards relaxed to lower values. Additionally, we discuss the evolution patterns of the various helicity and energy budgets of AR 12673 and compare them with results from other works. 

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2. A New Magnetic Parameter of Active Regions Distinguishing Large Eruptive and Confined Solar Flares

   https://doi.org/10.3847/2041-8213/ac5251  

   Li, Ting ; Sun, Xudong ; Hou, Yijun ; Chen, Anqin ; Yang, Shuhong ; Zhang, Jun ( February 2022 , The Astrophysical Journal Letters)

   Abstract With the aim of investigating how the magnetic field in solar active regions (ARs) controls flare activity, i.e., whether a confined or eruptive flare occurs, we analyze 106 flares of Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite class ≥M1.0 during 2010–2019. We calculate mean characteristic twist parameters α FPIL within the “flaring polarity inversion line” region and α HFED within the area of high photospheric magnetic free energy density, which both provide measures of the nonpotentiality of the AR core region. Magnetic twist is thought to be related to the driving force of electric current-driven instabilities, such as the helical kink instability. We also calculate total unsigned magnetic flux (Φ AR ) of ARs producing the flare, which describes the strength of the background field confinement. By considering both the constraining effect of background magnetic fields and the magnetic nonpotentiality of ARs, we propose a new parameter α /Φ AR to measure the probability for a large flare to be associated with a coronal mass ejection (CME). We find that in about 90% of eruptive flares, α FPIL /Φ AR and α HFED /Φ AR are beyond critical values (2.2 × 10 −24 and 3.2 × 10 −24 Mm −1 Mx −1 ), whereas they are less than critical values in ∼80% of confined flares. This indicates that the new parameter α /Φ AR is well able to distinguish eruptive flares from confined flares. Our investigation suggests that the relative measure of magnetic nonpotentiality within the AR core over the restriction of the background field largely controls the capability of ARs to produce eruptive flares. 

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3. A Magnetogram-matching Method for Energizing Magnetic Flux Ropes Toward Eruption

   https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/ac874e  

   Titov, V. S. ; Downs, C. ; Török, T. ; Linker, J. A. ( September 2022 , The Astrophysical Journal)

   We propose a new “helicity-pumping” method for energizing coronal equilibria that contain a magnetic flux rope (MFR) toward an eruption. We achieve this in a sequence of magnetohydrodynamics relaxations of small line-tied pulses of magnetic helicity, each of which is simulated by a suitable rescaling of the current-carrying part of the field. The whole procedure is “magnetogram-matching” because it involves no changes to the normal component of the field at the photospheric boundary. The method is illustrated by applying it to an observed force-free configuration whose MFR is modeled with our regularized Biot–Savart law method. We find that, in spite of the bipolar character of the external field, the MFR eruption is sustained by two reconnection processes. The first, which we refer to as breakthrough reconnection, is analogous to breakout reconnection in quadrupolar configurations. It occurs at a quasi-separator inside a current layer that wraps around the erupting MFR and is caused by the photospheric line-tying effect. The second process is the classical flare reconnection, which develops at the second quasi-separator inside a vertical current layer that is formed below the erupting MFR. Both reconnection processes work in tandem with the magnetic forces of the unstable MFR to propel it through the overlying ambient field, and their interplay may also be relevant for the thermal processes occurring in the plasma of solar flares. The considered example suggests that our method will be beneficial for both the modeling of observed eruptive events and theoretical studies of eruptions in idealized magnetic configurations.

    

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4. Comparing feature sets and machine-learning models for prediction of solar flares: Topology, physics, and model complexity

   V. Deshmukh ; S. Baskar ; T. E. Berger ; E. Bradley ; J. D. Meiss ( April 2023 , Astronomy and astrophysics)

   Context. Machine-learning methods for predicting solar flares typically employ physics-based features that have been carefully cho- sen by experts in order to capture the salient features of the photospheric magnetic fields of the Sun. Aims. Though the sophistication and complexity of these models have grown over time, there has been little evolution in the choice of feature sets, or any systematic study of whether the additional model complexity leads to higher predictive skill. Methods. This study compares the relative prediction performance of four different machine-learning based flare prediction models with increasing degrees of complexity. It evaluates three different feature sets as input to each model: a “traditional” physics-based feature set, a novel “shape-based” feature set derived from topological data analysis (TDA) of the solar magnetic field, and a com- bination of these two sets. A systematic hyperparameter tuning framework is employed in order to assure fair comparisons of the models across different feature sets. Finally, principal component analysis is used to study the effects of dimensionality reduction on these feature sets. Results. It is shown that simpler models with fewer free parameters perform better than the more complicated models on the canonical 24-h flare forecasting problem. In other words, more complex machine-learning architectures do not necessarily guarantee better prediction performance. In addition, it is found that shape-based feature sets contain just as much useful information as physics-based feature sets for the purpose of flare prediction, and that the dimension of these feature sets – particularly the shape-based one – can be greatly reduced without impacting predictive accuracy. 

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5. Coronal Magnetic Field Measurements along a Partially Erupting Filament in a Solar Flare

   https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/ac2f99  

   Wei, Yuqian ; Chen 陈, Bin 彬. ; Yu 余, Sijie 思捷 ; Wang, Haimin ; Jing, Ju ; Gary, Dale E. ( December 2021 , The Astrophysical Journal)

   Magnetic flux ropes are the centerpiece of solar eruptions. Direct measurements for the magnetic field of flux ropes are crucial for understanding the triggering and energy release processes, yet they remain heretofore elusive. Here we report microwave imaging spectroscopy observations of an M1.4-class solar flare that occurred on 2017 September 6, using data obtained by the Expanded Owens Valley Solar Array. This flare event is associated with a partial eruption of a twisted filament observed in Hαby the Goode Solar Telescope at the Big Bear Solar Observatory. The extreme ultraviolet (EUV) and X-ray signatures of the event are generally consistent with the standard scenario of eruptive flares, with the presence of double flare ribbons connected by a bright flare arcade. Intriguingly, this partial eruption event features a microwave counterpart, whose spatial and temporal evolution closely follow the filament seen in Hαand EUV. The spectral properties of the microwave source are consistent with nonthermal gyrosynchrotron radiation. Using spatially resolved microwave spectral analysis, we derive the magnetic field strength along the filament spine, which ranges from 600 to 1400 Gauss from its apex to the legs. The results agree well with the nonlinear force-free magnetic model extrapolated from the preflare photospheric magnetogram. We conclude that the microwave counterpart of the erupting filament is likely due to flare-accelerated electrons injected into the filament-hosting magnetic flux rope cavity following the newly reconnected magnetic field lines.

    

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