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Abstract Extensive ecological research has investigated extreme climate events or long‐term changes in average climate variables, but changes in year‐to‐year (interannual) variability may also cause important biological responses, even if the mean climate is stable. The environmental stochasticity that is a hallmark of climate variability can trigger unexpected biological responses that include tipping points and state transitions, and large differences in weather between consecutive years can also propagate antecedent effects, in which current biological responses depend on responsiveness to past perturbations. However, most studies to date cannot predict ecological responses to rising variance because the study of interannual variance requires empirical platforms that generate long time series. Furthermore, the ecological consequences of increases in climate variance could depend on the mean climate in complex ways; therefore, effective ecological predictions will require determining responses to both nonstationary components of climate distributions: the mean and the variance. We introduce a new design to resolve the relative importance of, and interactions between, a drier mean climate and greater climate variance, which are dual components of ongoing climate change in the southwestern United States. The Mean × Variance Experiment (MVE) adds two novel elements to prior field infrastructure methods: (1) factorial manipulation of variance together with the climate mean and (2) the creation of realistic, stochastic precipitation regimes. Here, we demonstrate the efficacy of the experimental design, including sensor networks and PhenoCams to automate monitoring. We replicated MVE across ecosystem types at the northern edge of the Chihuahuan Desert biome as a central component of the Sevilleta Long‐Term Ecological Research Program. Soil sensors detected significant treatment effects on both the mean and interannual variability in soil moisture, and PhenoCam imagery captured change in vegetation cover. Our design advances field methods to newly compare the sensitivities of populations, communities, and ecosystem processes to climate mean × variance interactions.
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From Nuisance to Novel Research Questions: Using Multilevel Models to Predict Heterogeneous Variances
Constructs that reflect differences in variability are of interest to many researchers studying workplace phenomena. The aggregation methods typically used to investigate “variability-based” constructs suffer from several limitations, including the inability to include Level 1 predictors and a failure to account for uncertainty in the variability estimates. We demonstrate how mixed-effects location-scale (MELS) and heterogeneous variance models, which are direct extensions of traditional mixed-effects (or multilevel) models, can be used to test mean (location)- and variability (scale)-related hypotheses simultaneously. The aims of this article are to demonstrate (a) how the MELS and heterogeneous variance models can be estimated with both nested cross-sectional and longitudinal data to answer novel research questions about constructs of interest to organizational researchers, (b) how a Bayesian approach allows for the inclusion of random intercepts and slopes when predicting both variability and mean levels, and finally (c) how researchers can use a multilevel approach to predict between-group heterogeneous variances. In doing so, this article highlights the added value of viewing variability as more than a statistical nuisance in organizational research.
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- PAR ID:
- 10215420
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Organizational Research Methods
- ISSN:
- 1094-4281
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 109442811988743
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1177/1094428119887434
