Growth curve models (GCMs), with their ability to directly investigate within-subject change over time and between-subject differences in change for longitudinal data, are widely used in social and behavioral sciences. While GCMs are typically studied with the normal distribution assumption, empirical data often violate the normality assumption in applications. Failure to account for the deviation from normality in data distribution may lead to unreliable model estimation and misleading statistical inferences. A robust GCM based on conditional medians was recently proposed and outperformed traditional growth curve modeling when outliers are present resulting in nonnormality. However, this robust approach was shown to perform less satisfactorily when leverage observations existed. In this work, we propose a robust double medians growth curve modeling approach (DOME GCM) to thoroughly disentangle the influence of data contamination on model estimation and inferences, where two conditional medians are employed for the distributions of the within-subject measurement errors and of random effects, respectively. Model estimation and inferences are conducted in the Bayesian framework, and Laplace distributions are used to convert the optimization problem of median estimation into a problem of obtaining the maximum likelihood estimator for a transformed model. A Monte Carlo simulation study has been conducted to evaluate the numerical performance of the proposed approach, and showed that the proposed approach yields more accurate and efficient parameter estimates when data contain outliers or leverage observations. The application of the developed robust approach is illustrated using a real dataset from the Virginia Cognitive Aging Project to study the change of memory ability.
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Assessing the Impact of Precision Parameter Prior in Bayesian Non-parametric Growth Curve Modeling
Bayesian non-parametric (BNP) modeling has been developed and proven to be a powerful tool to analyze messy data with complex structures. Despite the increasing popularity of BNP modeling, it also faces challenges. One challenge is the estimation of the precision parameter in the Dirichlet process mixtures. In this study, we focus on a BNP growth curve model and investigate how non-informative prior, weakly informative prior, accurate informative prior, and inaccurate informative prior affect the model convergence, parameter estimation, and computation time. A simulation study has been conducted. We conclude that the non-informative prior for the precision parameter is less preferred because it yields a much lower convergence rate, and growth curve parameter estimates are not sensitive to informative priors.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1951038
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10225042
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Frontiers in Psychology
- Volume:
- 12
- ISSN:
- 1664-1078
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Abstract Hyporheic exchange in streams is critical to ecosystem functions such as nutrient cycling along river corridors, especially for slowly moving or small stream systems. The transient storage model (TSM) has been widely used for modeling of hyporheic exchange. TSM calibration, for hyporheic exchange, is typically used to estimate four parameters, including the mass exchange rate coefficient, the dispersion coefficient, stream cross‐sectional area, and hyporheic zone cross‐sectional area. Prior studies have raised concerns regarding the non‐uniqueness of the inverse problem for the TSM, that is, the occurrence of different parameter vectors resulting in TSM solution that reproduces the observed in‐stream tracer break through curve (BTC) with the same error. This leads to practical non‐identifiability in determining the unknown parameter vector values even when global‐optimal values exist, and the parameter optimization becomes practically non‐unique. To address this problem, we applied the simulated annealing method to calibrate the TSM to BTCs, because it is less susceptible to local minima‐induced non‐identifiability. A hypothetical (or synthetic) tracer test data set with known parameters was developed to demonstrate the capability of the simulated annealing method to find the global minimum parameter vector, and it identified the “hypothetically‐true” global minimum parameter vector even with input data that were modified with up to 10% noise without increasing the number of iterations required for convergence. The simulated annealing TSM was then calibrated using two in‐stream tracer tests conducted in East Fork Poplar Creek, Tennessee. Simulated annealing was determined to be appropriate for quantifying the TSM parameter vector because of its search capability for the global minimum parameter vector.
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Abstract This paper addresses the parameter estimation problem for lithium-ion battery pack models comprising cells in series. This valuable information can be exploited in fault diagnostics to estimate the number of cells that are exhibiting abnormal behaviour, e.g. large resistances or small capacities. In particular, we use a Bayesian approach to estimate the parameters of a two-cell arrangement modelled using equivalent circuits. Although our modeling framework has been extensively reported in the literature, its structural identifiability properties have not been reported yet to the best of the authors’ knowledge. Moreover, most contributions in the literature tackle the estimation problem through point-wise estimates assuming Gaussian noise using e.g. least-squares methods (maximum likelihood estimation) or Kalman filters (maximum a posteriori estimation). In contrast, we apply methods that are suitable for nonlinear and non-Gaussian estimation problems and estimate the full posterior probability distribution of the parameters. We study how the model structure, available measurements and prior knowledge of the model parameters impact the underlying posterior probability distribution that is recovered for the parameters. For two cells in series, a bimodal distribution is obtained whose modes are centered around the real values of the parameters for each cell. Therefore, bounds on the model parameters for a battery pack can be derived.
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Background Adaptive CD19-targeted chimeric antigen receptor (CAR) T-cell transfer has become a promising treatment for leukemia. Although patient responses vary across different clinical trials, reliable methods to dissect and predict patient responses to novel therapies are currently lacking. Recently, the depiction of patient responses has been achieved using in silico computational models, with prediction application being limited. Methods We established a computational model of CAR T-cell therapy to recapitulate key cellular mechanisms and dynamics during treatment with responses of continuous remission (CR), non-response (NR), and CD19-positive (CD19 + ) and CD19-negative (CD19 − ) relapse. Real-time CAR T-cell and tumor burden data of 209 patients were collected from clinical studies and standardized with unified units in bone marrow. Parameter estimation was conducted using the stochastic approximation expectation maximization algorithm for nonlinear mixed-effect modeling. Results We revealed critical determinants related to patient responses at remission, resistance, and relapse. For CR, NR, and CD19 + relapse, the overall functionality of CAR T-cell led to various outcomes, whereas loss of the CD19 + antigen and the bystander killing effect of CAR T-cells may partly explain the progression of CD19 − relapse. Furthermore, we predicted patient responses by combining the peak and accumulated values of CAR T-cells or by inputting early-stage CAR T-cell dynamics. A clinical trial simulation using virtual patient cohorts generated based on real clinical patient datasets was conducted to further validate the prediction. Conclusions Our model dissected the mechanism behind distinct responses of leukemia to CAR T-cell therapy. This patient-based computational immuno-oncology model can predict late responses and may be informative in clinical treatment and management.more » « less
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Growth curve models have been widely used to analyse longitudinal data in social and behavioural sciences. Although growth curve models with normality assumptions are relatively easy to estimate, practical data are rarely normal. Failing to account for non‐normal data may lead to unreliable model estimation and misleading statistical inference. In this work, we propose a robust approach for growth curve modelling using conditional medians that are less sensitive to outlying observations. Bayesian methods are applied for model estimation and inference. Based on the existing work on Bayesian quantile regression using asymmetric Laplace distributions, we use asymmetric Laplace distributions to convert the problem of estimating a median growth curve model into a problem of obtaining the maximum likelihood estimator for a transformed model. Monte Carlo simulation studies have been conducted to evaluate the numerical performance of the proposed approach with data containing outliers or leverage observations. The results show that the proposed approach yields more accurate and efficient parameter estimates than traditional growth curve modelling. We illustrate the application of our robust approach using conditional medians based on a real data set from the Virginia Cognitive Aging Project.
- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2021.624588
