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1. Hydrometeorological Observations and Modeling of an Extreme Rainfall Event Using WRF and WRF-Hydro during the RELAMPAGO Field Campaign in Argentina

   https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-20-0133.1  

   Pal, Sujan ; Dominguez, Francina ; Dillon, María Eugenia ; Alvarez, Javier ; Garcia, Carlos Marcelo ; Nesbitt, Stephen W. ; Gochis, David ( February 2021 , Journal of Hydrometeorology)

   null (Ed.)

   Abstract Some of the most intense convective storms on Earth initiate near the Sierras de Córdoba mountain range in Argentina. The goal of the RELAMPAGO field campaign was to observe these intense convective storms and their associated impacts. The intense observation period (IOP) occurred during November–December 2018. The two goals of the hydrometeorological component of RELAMPAGO IOP were 1) to perform hydrological streamflow and meteorological observations in previously ungauged basins and 2) to build a hydrometeorological modeling system for hindcast and forecast applications. During the IOP, our team was able to construct the stage–discharge curves in three basins, as hydrological instrumentation and personnel were successfully deployed based on RELAMPAGO weather forecasts. We found that the flood response time in these river locations is typically between 5 and 6 h from the peak of the rain event. The satellite-observed rainfall product IMERG-Final showed a better representation of rain gauge–estimated precipitation, while IMERG-Early and IMERG-Late had significant positive bias. The modeling component focuses on the 48-h simulation of an extreme hydrometeorological event that occurred on 27 November 2018. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) atmospheric model and its hydrologic component WRF-Hydro as an uncoupled hydrologic model, we developed a system for hindcast, deterministic forecast, and a 60-member ensemble forecast initialized with regional-scale atmospheric data assimilation. Critically, our results highlight that streamflow simulations using the ensemble forecasting with data assimilation provide realistic flash flood forecast in terms of timing and magnitude of the peak. Our findings from this work are being used by the water managers in the region. 

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2. Development and Evaluation of an Ensemble‐Based Data Assimilation System for Regional Reanalysis Over the Tibetan Plateau and Surrounding Regions

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001665  

   He, Jie ; Zhang, Fuqing ; Chen, Xingchao ; Bao, Xinghua ; Chen, Deliang ; Kim, Hyun Mee ; Lai, Hui‐Wen ; Leung, L. Ruby ; Ma, Xulin ; Meng, Zhiyong ; et al ( August 2019 , Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems)

   The Tibetan Plateau is regarded as the Earth's Third Pole, which is the source region of several major rivers that impact more 20% the world population. This high‐altitude region is reported to have been undergoing much greater rate of weather changes under global warming, but the existing reanalysis products are inadequate for depicting the state of the atmosphere, particularly with regard to the amount of precipitation and its diurnal cycle. An ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) data assimilation system based on the limited‐area Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was evaluated for use in developing a regional reanalysis over the Tibetan Plateau and the surrounding regions. A 3‐month prototype reanalysis over the summer months (June−August) of 2015 using WRF‐EnKF at a 30‐km grid spacing to assimilate nonradiance observations from the Global Telecommunications System was developed and evaluated against independent sounding and satellite observations in comparison to the ERA‐Interim and fifth European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis (ERA5) global reanalysis. Results showed that both the posterior analysis and the subsequent 6‐ to 12‐hr WRF forecasts of the prototype regional reanalysis compared favorably with independent sounding observations, satellite‐based precipitation versus those from ERA‐Interim and ERA5 during the same period. In particular, the prototype regional reanalysis had clear advantages over the global reanalyses of ERA‐Interim and ERA5 in the analysis accuracy of atmospheric humidity, as well as in the subsequent downscale‐simulated precipitation intensity, spatial distribution, diurnal evolution, and extreme occurrence.

    

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3. PreciPatch: A Dictionary-based Precipitation Downscaling Method

   https://doi.org/10.3390/rs12061030  

   Xu, Mengchao ; Liu, Qian ; Sha, Dexuan ; Yu, Manzhu ; Duffy, Daniel ; Putman, William ; Carroll, Mark ; Lee, Tsengdar ; Yang, Chaowei ( March 2020 , Remote Sensing)

   Climate and weather data such as precipitation derived from Global Climate Models (GCMs) and satellite observations are essential for the global and local hydrological assessment. However, most climatic popular precipitation products (with spatial resolutions coarser than 10km) are too coarse for local impact studies and require “downscaling” to obtain higher resolutions. Traditional precipitation downscaling methods such as statistical and dynamic downscaling require an input of additional meteorological variables, and very few are applicable for downscaling hourly precipitation for higher spatial resolution. Based on dynamic dictionary learning, we propose a new downscaling method, PreciPatch, to address this challenge by producing spatially distributed higher resolution precipitation fields with only precipitation input from GCMs at hourly temporal resolution and a large geographical extent. Using aggregated Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) data, an experiment was conducted to evaluate the performance of PreciPatch, in comparison with bicubic interpolation using RainFARM—a stochastic downscaling method, and DeepSD—a Super-Resolution Convolutional Neural Network (SRCNN) based downscaling method. PreciPatch demonstrates better performance than other methods for downscaling short-duration precipitation events (used historical data from 2014 to 2017 as the training set to estimate high-resolution hourly events in 2018). 

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4. Evaluating Simulated Microphysics during OLYMPEX Using GPM Satellite Observations

   https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-18-0271.1  

   Conrick, Robert ; Mass, Clifford F. ( April 2019 , Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences)

   This study evaluates moist physics in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model using observations collected during the Olympic Mountains Experiment (OLYMPEX) field campaign by the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) satellite, including data from the GPM Microwave Imager (GMI) and Dual-Frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) instruments. Even though WRF using Thompson et al. microphysics was able to realistically simulate water vapor concentrations approaching the barrier, there was underprediction of cloud water content and rain rates offshore and over western slopes of terrain. We showed that underprediction of rain rate occurred when cloud water was underpredicted, establishing a connection between cloud water and rain-rate deficits. Evaluations of vertical hydrometeor mixing ratio profiles indicated that WRF produced too little cloud water and rainwater content, particularly below 2.5 km, with excessive snow above this altitude. Simulated mixing ratio profiles were less influenced by coastal proximity or midlatitude storm sector than were GMI profiles. Evaluations of different synoptic storm sectors suggested that postfrontal storm sectors were simulated most realistically, while warm sectors had the largest errors. DPR observations confirm the underprediction of rain rates noted by GMI, with no dependence on whether rain occurs over land or water. Finally, WRF underpredicted radar reflectivity below 2 km and overpredicted above 2 km, consistent with GMI vertical mixing ratio profiles.

    

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5. The influence of sea- and land-breeze circulations on the diurnal variability in precipitation over a tropical island

   Lei Zhu1, 2 ( November 2017 , Atmospheric chemistry and physics)

   Abstract. This study examines the diurnal variation in precipitation over Hainan Island in the South China Sea using gauge observations from 1951 to 2012 and Climate Prediction Center MORPHing technique (CMORPH) satellite estimates from 2006 to 2015, as well as numerical simulations. The simulations are the first to use climatological mean initial and lateral boundary conditions to study the dynamic and thermodynamic processes (and the impacts of land–sea breeze circulations) that control the rainfall distribution and climatology. Precipitation is most significant from April to October and exhibits a strong diurnal cycle resulting from land–sea breeze circulations. More than 60% of the total annual precipitation over the island is attributable to the diurnal cycle with a significant monthly variability. The CMORPH and gauge datasets agree well, except that the CMORPH data underestimate precipitation and have a 1 h peak delay. The diurnal cycle of the rainfall and the related land– sea breeze circulations during May and June were well captured by convection-permitting numerical simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which were initiated from a 10-year average ERA-Interim reanalysis. The simulations have a slight overestimation of rainfall amounts and a 1 h delay in peak rainfall time. The diurnal cycle of precipitation is driven by the occurrence of moist convection around noontime owing to low-level convergence associated with the sea-breeze circulations. The precipitation intensifies rapidly thereafter and peaks in the afternoon with the collisions of sea-breeze fronts from different sides of the island. Cold pools of the convective storms contribute to the inland propagation of the sea breeze. Generally, precipitation dissipates quickly in the evening due to the cooling and stabilization of the lower troposphere and decrease of boundary layer moisture. Interestingly, the rather high island orography is not a dominant factor in the diurnal variation in precipitation over the island. 

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