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Tail risk is an important financial issue today, but directly hedging tail risks with an ad hoc option is still an unresolved problem since it is not easy to specify a suitable and asymmetric pricing kernel. By defining two ad hoc underlying “assets”, this paper designs two novel tail risk options (TROs) for hedging and evaluating short-term tail risks. Under the Fréchet distribution assumption for maximum losses, the closed-form TRO pricing formulas are obtained. Simulation examples demonstrate the accuracy of the pricing formulas. Furthermore, they show that, no matter whether at scale level (symmetric “normal” risk, with greater volatility) or shape level (asymmetric tail risk, with a smaller value in tail index), the greater the risk, the more expensive the TRO calls, and the cheaper the TRO puts. Using calibration, one can obtain the TRO-implied volatility and the TRO-implied tail index. The former is analogous to the Black-Scholes implied volatility, which can measure the overall symmetric market volatility. The latter measures the asymmetry in underlying losses, mirrors market sentiment, and provides financial crisis warnings. Regarding the newly proposed TRO and its implied tail index, economic implications can be offered to investors, portfolio managers, and policy-makers.
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MOST-LIKELY-PATH IN ASIAN OPTION PRICING UNDER LOCAL VOLATILITY MODELS
This paper addresses the problem of approximating the price of options on discrete and continuous arithmetic averages of the underlying, i.e. discretely and continuously monitored Asian options, in local volatility models. A “path-integral”-type expression for option prices is obtained using a Brownian bridge representation for the transition density between consecutive sampling times and a Laplace asymptotic formula. In the limit where the sampling time window approaches zero, the option price is found to be approximated by a constrained variational problem on paths in time-price space. We refer to the optimizing path as the most-likely path (MLP). An approximation for the implied normal volatility follows accordingly. The small-time asymptotics and the existence of the MLP are also rigorously recovered using large deviation theory.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1653602
- PAR ID:
- 10227489
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance
- Volume:
- 21
- Issue:
- 05
- ISSN:
- 0219-0249
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 1850029
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
-
Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1142/S0219024918500292
