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We propose and analyze a new estimator of the covariance matrix that admits strong theoretical guarantees under weak assumptions on the underlying distribution, such as existence of moments of only low order. While estimation of covariance matrices corresponding to sub-Gaussian distributions is well-understood, much less in known in the case of heavy-tailed data. As K. Balasubramanian and M. Yuan write, "data from real-world experiments oftentimes tend to be corrupted with outliers and/or exhibit heavy tails. In such cases, it is not clear that those covariance matrix estimators .. remain optimal" and "what are the other possible strategies to deal with heavy tailed distributions warrant further studies." We make a step towards answering this question and prove tight deviation inequalities for the proposed estimator that depend only on the parameters controlling the intrinsic dimension'' associated to the covariance matrix (as opposed to the dimension of the ambient space); in particular, our results are applicable in the case of high-dimensional observations.
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Covariance Matrix Estimation under Total Positivity for Portfolio Selection*
Abstract Selecting the optimal Markowitz portfolio depends on estimating the covariance matrix of the returns of N assets from T periods of historical data. Problematically, N is typically of the same order as T, which makes the sample covariance matrix estimator perform poorly, both empirically and theoretically. While various other general-purpose covariance matrix estimators have been introduced in the financial economics and statistics literature for dealing with the high dimensionality of this problem, we here propose an estimator that exploits the fact that assets are typically positively dependent. This is achieved by imposing that the joint distribution of returns be multivariate totally positive of order 2 (MTP2). This constraint on the covariance matrix not only enforces positive dependence among the assets but also regularizes the covariance matrix, leading to desirable statistical properties such as sparsity. Based on stock market data spanning 30 years, we show that estimating the covariance matrix under MTP2 outperforms previous state-of-the-art methods including shrinkage estimators and factor models.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1651995
- PAR ID:
- 10232139
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Financial Econometrics
- ISSN:
- 1479-8409
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1093/jjfinec/nbaa018
