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1. Evacuate or social distance? Modeling the influence of threat perceptions on hurricane evacuation in a dual‐threat environment

   https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.14202  

   Wu, Hao‐Che; Murphy, Haley; Greer, Alex; Clay, Lauren (August 2023, Risk Analysis)

   Abstract This study investigates how different risk predictors influenced households’ evacuation decisions during a dual‐threat event (Hurricane Laura and COVID‐19 pandemic). The Protective Action Decision Model (PADM) literature indicates that perceived threat variables are the most influential variables that drive evacuation decisions. This study applies the PADM to investigate a dual‐threat disaster that has conflicting protective action recommendations. Given the novelty, scale, span, impact, and messaging around COVID‐19, it is crucial to see how hurricanes along the Gulf Coast—a hazard addressed seasonally by residents with mostly consistent protective action messaging—produce different reactions in residents in this pandemic context. Household survey data were collected during early 2021 using a disproportionate stratified sampling procedure to include households located in mandatory and voluntary evacuation areas across the coastal counties in Texas and parishes in Louisiana that were affected by Hurricane Laura. Structural equation modeling was used to identify the relationships between perceived threats and evacuation decisions. The findings suggest affective risk perceptions strongly affected cognitive risk perceptions (CRPs). Notably, hurricane and COVID‐19 CRPs are significant predictors of hurricane evacuation decisions in different ways. Hurricane CRPs encourage evacuation, but COVID‐19 CRPs hinder evacuation decisions. 

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2. Dynamic modeling of public and private decision‐making for hurricane risk management including insurance, acquisition, and mitigation policy

   https://doi.org/10.1111/rmir.12215  

   Guo, Cen; Nozick, Linda; Kruse, Jamie; Millea, Meghan; Davidson, Rachel; Trainor, Joseph (June 2022, Risk Management and Insurance Review)

   Abstract We develop a computational framework for the stochastic and dynamic modeling of regional natural catastrophe losses with an insurance industry to support government decision‐making for hurricane risk management. The analysis captures the temporal changes in the building inventory due to the acquisition (buyouts) of high‐risk properties and the vulnerability of the building stock due to retrofit mitigation decisions. The system is comprised of a set of interacting models to (1) simulate hazard events; (2) estimate regional hurricane‐induced losses from each hazard event based on an evolving building inventory; (3) capture acquisition offer acceptance, retrofit implementation, and insurance purchase behaviors of homeowners; and (4) represent an insurance market sensitive to demand with strategically interrelated primary insurers. This framework is linked to a simulation‐optimization model to optimize decision‐making by a government entity whose objective is to minimize region‐wide hurricane losses. We examine the effect of different policies on homeowner mitigation, insurance take‐up rate, insurer profit, and solvency in a case study using data for eastern North Carolina. Our findings indicate that an approach that coordinates insurance, retrofits, and acquisition of high‐risk properties effectively reduces total (uninsured and insured) losses. 

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3. Impact of Immersive Training on Senior Chemical Engineering Students' Prioritization of Process Safety Decision Criteria

   Stransky, J.; Hill, C.; Willets, J.; McErlean, R.; Bassett, L.; Anastasio, D.; Burkey, D.; Cooper, M.; Bodnar, C. (July 2021, 2021 ASEE Virtual Conference)

   Every year new safety features and regulations are employed within the process industry to reduce risks associated with operations. Despite these advancements chemical plants remain hazardous places, and the role of the engineer will always involve risk mitigation through real time decision making. Results from a previous study by Kongsvik et al., 2015 indicated that there were three types of decisions in major chemical plants: strategic decisions, operational decisions, and instantaneous decisions. The study showed the importance for improving upon engineers’ operational and instantaneous choices when tasked with quick solutions in the workforce. In this research study, we dive deeper to understand how senior chemical engineering students’ prioritize components of decision making such as budget, productivity, relationships, safety, and time, and how this prioritization may change as a result of participation in a digital immersive training environment called Contents Under Pressure. More specifically, we seek to address the following two research questions: (1) How do senior chemical engineering students prioritize safety in comparison to criteria such as budget, personal relationships, plant productivity, and time in a process safety context, and (2) How does senior chemical engineering students’ prioritization of decision making criteria (budget, personal relationships, plant productivity, safety, and time) change after exposure to a virtual process safety decision making environment? As part of this study, 187 senior chemical engineering students from three separate institutions completed a pre- and post-reflection survey around their engagement with Contents Under Pressure and asked them to rank their prioritizations of budget, productivity, relationships, safety, and time. Data was analyzed using descriptive statistics, and Friedman and Wilcoxon-sign-rank post hoc analyses were completed to determine any statistical differences between the rankings of decision making factors before and after engagement with Contents Under Pressure. Simulating process safety decision making with interactive educational supports may increase students’ understanding of genuine workplace environments and factors that contribute to process safety, without the real world hazards that result from poor decision making. By understanding how students prioritize these factors, chemical engineering curricula can be adapted to focus on the areas of process safety decision making where students need the largest improvement, thereby better preparing them to enter the engineering workforce. 

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4. Managed retreat: a nationwide study of the local, racially segmented resettlement of homeowners from rising flood risks

   https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acd654  

   Elliott, James R.; Wang, Zheye (June 2023, Environmental Research Letters)

   Abstract The government-funded retreat of homeowners from flood-prone housing is a globally ascendant policy of climate adaptation. Yet, we still know relatively little about some fairly basic questions involving its participants: e.g. How much risk do homeowners tolerate before retreating? Where do they move? Does that move reduce their future flood risk? And, to what extent do answers to these questions vary by the type of racial and ethnic communities in which they live? To answer these questions, we combine novel address-to-address residential history data with future flood risk estimates and indices of local context to better understand how retreat is unfolding across the United States. Results indicate that, when voluntarily undertaken, retreat is a highly local process that yields notable reductions in household flood risk. These movements, however, are racially segmented, with homeowners in majority-White communities being more likely to stay in the face of higher risk and less likely to relocate to nearby areas that are not also majority-White. 

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5. Community-based participatory climate action

   https://doi.org/10.1017/sus.2023.12  

   Restrepo-Mieth, Andrea; Perry, Jocelyn; Garnick, Jonah; Weisberg, Michael (January 2023, Global Sustainability)

   Non-technical summaryImproving the flow of information between governments and local communities is paramount to achieving effective climate change mitigation and adaptation. We propose five pathways to deepen participation and improve community-based climate action. The pathways can be summarized as visualization, simulations to practice decision-making, participatory budgeting and planning, environmental civic service, and education and curriculum development. These pathways contribute to improving governance by consolidating in governments the practice of soliciting and incorporating community participation while simultaneously giving communities the tools and knowledge needed to become active contributors to climate change adaptation and mitigation measures. Technical summaryCommunity participation is considered a key component in the design of responses to climate change. Substantial engagement of local communities is required to ensure information flow between governments and communities, but also because local communities are the primary sites of adaptation action. However, frontline communities are often excluded from decision-making and implementation processes due to political choices or failures to identify ways to make participatory frameworks more inclusive. Climate action requires the active engagement of communities in making consequential decisions, or what we termdeepened participation. We propose five pathways to deepen participation: visualization, simulations to practice decision-making, participatory budgeting and planning, environmental civic service, and education and curriculum development. The five pathways identify strategies that can be incorporated into existing organizational and institutional frameworks or used to create new ones. Shortcomings related to each strategy are identified. Reflection by communities and governments is encouraged as they choose which participatory technique(s) to adopt. Social media summaryClimate action requires the active engagement of communities. Learn five pathways to get started deepening participation. 

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