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Typical Meteorological Year (TMY) datasets, widely used in building energy modeling, overlook Urban Heat Island (UHI) effects and future climate trends by relying on long-term data from rural stations such as airports. This study addresses this limitation by integrating Urban Weather Generator (UWG) simulations with CCWorldWeatherGen projections to produce microclimate-adjusted and future weather scenarios. These datasets were then incorporated into an Urban Building Energy Modeling (UBEM) framework using Urban Modeling Interface (UMI) to evaluate energy performance across a lowincome residential neighborhood in Des Moines, Iowa. Results show that UHI intensity will rise from an annual average of 0.55 °C under current conditions to 0.60 °C by 2050 and 0.63 °C by 2080, with peak intensities in summer. The UHI elevates cooling Energy Use Intensity (EUI) by 7% today, with projections indicating a sharp increase—91% by 2050 and 154% by 2080. The UHI will further amplify cooling demand by 2.3% and 6.2% in 2050 and 2080, respectively. Conversely, heating EUI will decline by 20.0% by 2050 and 40.1% by 2080, with the UHI slightly reducing heating demand. Insulation mitigates cooling loads but becomes less effective for heating demand over time. These findings highlight the need for climate-adaptive policies, building retrofits, and UHI mitigation to manage future cooling demand.
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Lifetime energy performance of residential buildings: A sensitivity analysis of energy modeling parameters
Traditional building energy simulation tools often assess performance as a function of the unique climate, physical characteristics, and operational parameters that define specific buildings and communities, planned or existing. This paper presents the results of a sensitivity analysis on the input parameters(relating to both the building and climate) that affect the annual energy consumption loads of an existing residential neighborhood in the U.S. Midwest over the anticipated service life of its buildings using the Urban Modeling Interface (umi). Accordingly, first, the effect of multiple building construction characteristic packages and inclusion of outdoor vegetation, are investigated under typical meteorological climate conditions. Afterwards, since typical climate conditions may not adequately describe the potential extreme conditions that will be encountered over the entire service life of these buildings, alternative weather datasets were also utilized in the sensitivity analysis. The study’s findings suggest that cooling loads are expected to increase dramatically over the next five decades, both due to changes in the climate and the more wide-spread use of air-conditioning units. Since the results showed that trees can effectively reduce cooling loads by up to 7%, it is recommended that urban vegetation should be considered as an effective adaptation measure for facing the growing cooling demands.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1855902
- PAR ID:
- 10253914
- Editor(s):
- Chronis, A.
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Proceedings of the symposium on Simulation for Architecture and Urban Design
- Volume:
- 2020
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 585-591
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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