Inference without compatibility: Using exponential weighting for inference on a parameter of a linear model

Law, Michael; Ritov, Ya’acov

doi:10.3150/20-BEJ1280

Inferring gene regulatory networks (GRNs) from single-cell gene expression datasets is a challenging task. Existing methods are often designed heuristically for specific datasets and lack the flexibility to incorporate additional information or compare against other algorithms. Further, current GRN inference methods do not provide uncertainty estimates with respect to the interactions that they predict, making inferred networks challenging to interpret. To overcome these challenges, we introduce Probabilistic Matrix Factorization for Gene Regulatory Network inference (PMF-GRN). PMF-GRN uses single-cell gene expression data to learn latent factors representing transcription factor activity as well as regulatory relationships between transcription factors and their target genes. This approach incorporates available experimental evidence into prior distributions over latent factors and scales well to single-cell gene expression datasets. By utilizing variational inference, we facilitate hyperparameter search for principled model selection and direct comparison to other generative models. To assess the accuracy of our method, we evaluate PMF-GRN using the model organisms Saccharomyces cerevisiae and Bacillus subtilis, benchmarking against database-derived gold standard interactions. We discover that, on average, PMF-GRN infers GRNs more accurately than current state-of-the-art single-cell GRN inference methods. Moreover, our PMF-GRN approach offers well-calibrated uncertainty estimates, as it performs gene regulatory network (GRN) inference in a probabilistic setting. These estimates are valuable for validation purposes, particularly when validated interactions are limited or a gold standard is incomplete.

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