More Like this

1. Disentangling the North Pacific Meridional Mode from tropical Pacific variability

   https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-022-00317-8  

   Richter, Ingo ; Stuecker, Malte F. ; Takahashi, Naoya ; Schneider, Niklas ( November 2022 , npj Climate and Atmospheric Science)

   Variations of sea-surface temperature (SST) in the subtropical North Pacific have received considerable attention due to their potential role as a precursor of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events in the tropical Pacific as well as their role in regional climate impacts. These subtropical SST variations, known as the North Pacific Meridional Mode (PMM), are thought to be triggered by extratropical atmospheric forcing and amplified by air-sea coupling involving surface winds, evaporation, and SST. The PMM is often defined through a statistical technique called maximum covariance analysis (MCA) that identifies patterns of maximum covariability between SST and surface winds. Here we show that SST alone is sufficient to reproduce the MCA-based PMM index with near-perfect correlation. This dominance of the SST suggests that the MCA-based definition of the PMM may not be ideally suited for capturing two-way wind-SST interaction or, alternatively, that this interaction is relatively weak. We further show that the MCA-based PMM definition conflates intrinsic subtropical and remote ENSO variability, thereby undermining its interpretation as an ENSO precursor. Our findings indicate that, while air-sea coupling may be important for variability in the subtropical North Pacific, it cannot be reliably identified by the MCA-based definition of the PMM. This highlights the need for refined tools to diagnose variability in the subtropical North Pacific.

    

   more » « less
2. Convection in the east Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone: EAST PACIFIC ITCZ

   https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL071554  

   Raymond, David J. ( January 2017 , Geophysical Research Letters)
3. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation modulated marine heatwaves in the Northeast Pacific during past decades

   https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00863-w  

   Ren, Xianglin ; Liu, Wei ; Capotondi, Antonietta ; Amaya, Dillon J. ; Holbrook, Neil J. ( December 2023 , Communications Earth & Environment)

   The Pacific Decadal Oscillation has been suggested to play an important role in driving marine heatwaves in the Northeast Pacific during recent decades. Here we combine observations and climate model simulations to show that marine heatwaves became longer, stronger and more frequent off the Northeast Pacific coast under a positive Pacific Decadal Oscillation scenario, unlike what is found during a negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation scenario. This primarily results from the different mean-state sea surface temperatures between the two Pacific Decadal Oscillation phases. Compared to the cool (negative) phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, warmer coastal sea surface temperatures occur during the positive Pacific Decadal Oscillation phase due to reduced coastal cold upwelling and increased net downward surface heat flux. Model results show that, relative to the background anthropogenic global warming, the positive Pacific Decadal Oscillation in the period 2013–2022 prolongs marine heatwaves duration by up to 43% and acts to increase marine heatwaves annual frequency by up to 32% off the Northeast Pacific coast.

    

   more » « less
4. The Continuum of Northeast Pacific Marine Heatwaves and Their Relationship to the Tropical Pacific

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL090661  

   Xu, Tongtong ; Newman, Matthew ; Capotondi, Antonietta ; Di Lorenzo, Emanuele ( January 2021 , Geophysical Research Letters)

   null (Ed.)
5. Monsoon Gyres of the Northwest Pacific: Influences of ENSO, the MJO, and the Pacific–Japan Pattern

   https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0393.1  

   Molinari, John ; Vollaro, David ( March 2017 , Journal of Climate)