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Abstract Rainfall over mainland Southeast Asia experiences variability on seasonal to decadal timescales in response to a multitude of climate phenomena. Historical records and paleoclimate archives that span the last millennium reveal extreme multi-year rainfall variations that significantly affected the societies of mainland Southeast Asia. Here we utilize the Community Earth System Model Last Millennium Ensemble (CESM-LME) to quantify the contributions of internal and external drivers to decadal-scale rainfall extremes in the Southeast Asia region. We find that internal variability was dominant in driving both Southeast Asian drought and pluvial extremes on decadal timescales although external forcing impacts are also detectable. Specifically, rainfall extremes are more sensitive to Pacific Ocean internal variability than the state of the Indian Ocean. This discrepancy is greater for droughts than pluvials which we suggest is attributable to external forcing impacts that counteract the forced Indian Ocean teleconnections to Southeast Asia. Volcanic aerosols, the most effective radiative forcing during the last millennium, contributed to both the Ming Dynasty Drought (1637–1643) and the Strange Parallels Drought (1756–1768). From the Medieval Climate Anomaly to the Little Ice Age, we observe a shift in Indo-Pacific teleconnection strength to Southeast Asia consistent with enhanced volcanism during the latter interval. This work not only highlights asymmetries in the drivers of rainfall extremes but also presents a framework for quantifying multivariate drivers of decadal-scale variability and hydroclimatic extremes.
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Understanding drivers of glacier-length variability over the last millennium
Abstract. Changes in glacier length reflect the integrated response to local fluctuations in temperature and precipitation resulting from both external forcing (e.g., volcanic eruptions or anthropogenic CO2) and internal climate variability. In order to interpret the climate history reflected in the glacier moraine record, the influence of both sources of climate variability must therefore be considered. Here we study the last millennium of glacier-length variability across the globe using a simple dynamic glacier model, which we force with temperature and precipitation time series from a 13-member ensemble of simulations from a global climate model. The ensemble allows us to quantify the contributions to glacier-length variability from external forcing (given by the ensemble mean) and internal variability (given by the ensemble spread). Within this framework, we find that internal variability is the predominant source of length fluctuations for glaciers with a shorter response time (less than a few decades). However, for glaciers with longer response timescales (more than a few decades) external forcing has a greater influence than internal variability. We further find that external forcing also dominates when the response of glaciers from widely separated regions is averaged. Single-forcing simulations indicate that, for this climate model, most of the forced response over the last millennium, pre-anthropogenic warming, has been driven by global-scale temperature change associated with volcanic aerosols.
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- PAR ID:
- 10292118
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- The Cryosphere
- Volume:
- 15
- Issue:
- 3
- ISSN:
- 1994-0424
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 1645 to 1662
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1645-2021
