The GuLF Long-term Follow-up Study (GuLF STUDY) is investigating potential adverse health effects of workers involved in the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil spill response and cleanup (OSRC). Over 93% of the 160 000 personal air measurements taken on OSRC workers were below the limit of detection (LOD), as reported by the analytic labs. At this high level of censoring, our ability to develop exposure estimates was limited. The primary objective here was to reduce the number of measurements below the labs’ reported LODs to reflect the analytic methods’ true LODs, thereby facilitating the use of a relatively unbiased and precise Bayesian method to develop exposure estimates for study exposure groups (EGs). The estimates informed a job-exposure matrix to characterize exposure of study participants. A second objective was to develop descriptive statistics for relevant EGs that did not meet the Bayesian criteria of sample size ≥5 and censoring ≤80% to achieve the aforementioned level of bias and precision. One of the analytic labs recalculated the measurements using the analytic method’s LOD; the second lab provided raw analytical data, allowing us to recalculate the data values that fell between the originally reported LOD and the analytical method’s LOD. We developed rules for developing Bayesian estimates for EGs with >80% censoring. The remaining EGs were 100% censored. An order-based statistical method (OBSM) was developed to estimate exposures that considered the number of measurements, geometric standard deviation, and average LOD of the censored samples for N ≥ 20. For N < 20, substitution of ½ of the LOD was assigned. Recalculation of the measurements lowered overall censoring from 93.2 to 60.5% and of the THC measurements, from 83.1 to 11.2%. A total of 71% of the EGs met the ≤15% relative bias and <65% imprecision goal. Another 15% had censoring >80% but enough non-censored measurements to apply Bayesian methods. We used the OBSM for 3% of the estimates and the simple substitution method for 11%. The methods presented here substantially reduced the degree of censoring in the dataset and increased the number of EGs meeting our Bayesian method’s desired performance goal. The OBSM allowed for a systematic and consistent approach impacting only the lowest of the exposure estimates. This approach should be considered when dealing with highly censored datasets.
- Award ID(s):
- 1916349
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10292735
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Annals of Work Exposures and Health
- ISSN:
- 2398-7308
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Abstract The GuLF STUDY, initiated by the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, is investigating the health effects among workers involved in the oil spill response and clean-up (OSRC) after the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) explosion in April 2010 in the Gulf of Mexico. Clean-up included in situ burning of oil on the water surface and flaring of gas and oil captured near the seabed and brought to the surface. We estimated emissions of PM2.5 and related pollutants resulting from these activities, as well as from engines of vessels working on the OSRC. PM2.5 emissions ranged from 30 to 1.33e6 kg per day and were generally uniform over time for the flares but highly episodic for the in situ burns. Hourly emissions from each source on every burn/flare day were used as inputs to the AERMOD model to develop average and maximum concentrations for 1-, 12-, and 24-h time periods. The highest predicted 24-h average concentrations sometimes exceeded 5000 µg m−3 in the first 500 m downwind of flaring and reached 71 µg m−3 within a kilometer of some in situ burns. Beyond 40 km from the DWH site, plumes appeared to be well mixed, and the predicted 24-h average concentrations from the flares and in situ burns were similar, usually below 10 µg m−3. Structured averaging of model output gave potential PM2.5 exposure estimates for OSRC workers located in various areas across the Gulf. Workers located nearest the wellhead (hot zone/source workers) were estimated to have a potential maximum 12-h exposure of 97 µg m−3 over the 2-month flaring period. The potential maximum 12-h exposure for workers who participated in in situ burns was estimated at 10 µg m−3 over the ~3-month burn period. The results suggest that burning of oil and gas during the DWH clean-up may have resulted in PM2.5 concentrations substantially above the U.S. National Ambient Air Quality Standard for PM2.5 (24-h average = 35 µg m−3). These results are being used to investigate possible adverse health effects in the GuLF STUDY epidemiologic analysis of PM2.5 exposures.
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Abstract Objectives Our objectives were to (i) determine correlations between measurements of THC and of BTEX-H, (ii) apply these linear relationships to predict BTEX-H from measured THC, (iii) use these correlations as informative priors in Bayesian analyses to estimate exposures.
Methods We used a Bayesian left-censored bivariate framework for all 3 objectives. First, we modeled the relationships (i.e. correlations) between THC and each BTEX-H chemical for various overarching groups of measurements using linear regression to determine if correlations derived from linear relationships differed by various exposure determinants. We then used the same linear regression relationships to predict (or impute) BTEX-H measurements from THC when only THC measurements were available. Finally, we used the same linear relationships as priors for the final exposure models that used real and predicted data to develop exposure estimate statistics for each individual exposure group.
Results Correlations between measurements of THC and each of the BTEX-H chemicals (n = 120 for each of BTEX, 36 for n-hexane) differed substantially by area of the Gulf of Mexico and by time period that reflected different oil-spill related exposure opportunities. The correlations generally exceeded 0.5. Use of regression relationships to impute missing data resulted in the addition of >23 000 n-hexane and 541 observations for each of BTEX. The relationships were then used as priors for the calculation of exposure statistics while accounting for censored measurement data.
Conclusions Taking advantage of observed relationships between THC and BTEX-H allowed us to develop robust exposure estimates where a large amount of data were missing, strengthening our exposure estimation process for the epidemiologic study.
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1093/annweh/wxaa072
