Expansion of shrubs has been observed in a number of biomes and in response to diverse global change drivers. Noting shrub expansion in coastal forests affected by sea level rise, we began to monitor shrub populations in a transgressing loblolly pine forest in coastal Virginia. Forest study plots spanned a gradient of salinity and progression toward a ghost forest state, from high forest with a relatively closed canopy, to mid and low forest, where there were few remaining live canopy trees. Shrubs of the species Morella cerifera were censused for 3 years from 2019 to 2021. Shrub distributions were compared to distributions of the invasive grass Phragmites australis to test if competition with this invasive species played a role in the observed shrub distribution. Shrubs were most abundant in the mid forest, whereas P. australis was most abundant in the low forest, but we did not detect a negative correlation between changes in occupancy of P. australis and shrubs. Rapid growth of shrubs in the mid and high forest radically changed the forest understory structure during the study period. Basal area of shrubs in the mid and high forest tripled, and shrub occupancy increased from 45 to 66% in the high forest, with high patchiness between plots. A flooding event salinized the site in late 2019, during the study. Following the flood, soil porewater salinities in the low forest remained above levels known to cause mortality in M. cerifera for several months. We postulate that high salinity, rather than competition with P. australis , filters M. cerifera from the low forest, whereas moderate salinity in the mid and high forest favors M. cerifera growth and expansion. The increase in shrubs appears to be a hallmark of salt-affected maritime forest, with the shrub front occurring in advance of other indicators of transgression such as P. australis invasion. 
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                            Long-Term Community Dynamics Reveal Different Trajectories for Two Mid-Atlantic Maritime Forests
                        
                    
    
            Maritime forests are threatened by sea-level rise, storm surge and encroachment of salt-tolerant species. On barrier islands, these forested communities must withstand the full force of tropical storms, hurricanes and nor’easters while the impact is reduced for mainland forests protected by barrier islands. Geographic position may account for differences in maritime forest resilience to disturbance. In this study, we quantify two geographically distinct maritime forests protected by dunes on Virginia’s Eastern Shore (i.e., mainland and barrier island) at two time points (15 and 21 years apart, respectively) to determine whether the trajectory is successional or presenting evidence of disassembly with sea-level rise and storm exposure. We hypothesize that due to position on the landscape, forest disassembly will be higher on the barrier island than mainland as evidenced by reduction in tree basal area and decreased species richness. Rate of relative sea-level rise in the region was 5.9 ± 0.7 mm yr−1 based on monthly mean sea-level data from 1975 to 2017. Savage Neck Dunes Natural Area Preserve maritime forest was surveyed using the point quarter method in 2003 and 2018. Parramore Island maritime forest was surveyed in 1997 using 32 m diameter circular plots. As the island has been eroding over the past two decades, 2016 Landsat imagery was used to identify remaining forested plots prior to resurveying. In 2018, only plots that remained forested were resurveyed. Lidar was used to quantify elevation of each point/plot surveyed in 2018. Plot elevation at Savage Neck was 1.93 ± 0.02 m above sea level, whereas at Parramore Island, elevation was lower at 1.04 ± 0.08 m. Mainland dominant species, Acer rubrum, Pinus taeda, and Liquidambar styraciflua, remained dominant over the study period, with a 14% reduction in the total number of individuals recorded. Basal area increased by 11%. Conversely, on Parramore Island, 33% of the former forested plots converted to grassland and 33% were lost to erosion and occur as ghost forest on the shore or were lost to the ocean. Of the remaining forested plots surveyed in 2018, dominance switched from Persea palustris and Juniperus virginiana to the shrub Morella cerifera. Only 46% of trees/shrubs remained and basal area was reduced by 84%. Shrub basal area accounted for 66% of the total recorded in 2018. There are alternative paths to maritime forest trajectory which differ for barrier island and mainland. Geographic position relative to disturbance and elevation likely explain the changes in forest community composition over the timeframes studied. Protected mainland forest at Savage Neck occurs at higher mean elevation and indicates natural succession to larger and fewer individuals, with little change in mixed hardwood-pine dominance. The fronting barrier island maritime forest on Parramore Island has undergone rapid change in 21 years, with complete loss of forested communities to ocean or conversion to mesic grassland. Of the forests remaining, dominant evergreen trees are now being replaced with the expanding evergreen shrub, Morella cerifera. Loss of biomass and basal area has been documented in other low elevation coastal forests. Our results indicate that an intermediate shrub state may precede complete loss of woody communities in some coastal communities, providing an alternative mechanism of resilience. 
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                            - Award ID(s):
- 1832221
- PAR ID:
- 10293995
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Forests
- Volume:
- 12
- Issue:
- 8
- ISSN:
- 1999-4907
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 1063
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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