More Like this

1. Dynamics for El Niño-La Niña asymmetry constrain equatorial-Pacific warming pattern

   https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-17983-y  

   Hayashi, Michiya; Jin, Fei-Fei; Stuecker, Malte F. (December 2020, Nature Communications)

   null (Ed.)

   Abstract The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) results from the instability of and also modulates the strength of the tropical-Pacific cold tongue. While climate models reproduce observed ENSO amplitude relatively well, the majority still simulates its asymmetry between warm (El Niño) and cold (La Niña) phases very poorly. The causes of this major deficiency and consequences thereof are so far not well understood. Analysing both reanalyses and climate models, we here show that simulated ENSO asymmetry is largely proportional to subsurface nonlinear dynamical heating (NDH) along the equatorial Pacific thermocline. Most climate models suffer from too-weak NDH and too-weak linear dynamical ocean-atmosphere coupling. Nevertheless, a sizeable subset (about 1/3) having relatively realistic NDH shows that El Niño-likeness of the equatorial-Pacific warming pattern is linearly related to ENSO amplitude change in response to greenhouse warming. Therefore, better simulating the dynamics of ENSO asymmetry potentially reduces uncertainty in future projections. 

   more » « less
2. Parameterizing the nonlinear feedback on ENSO from tropical instability waves (TIWs) by nonlinear eddy thermal diffusivity

   https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06744-4  

   Xue, Aoyun; Jin, Fei-Fei; Zhang, Wenjun; Boucharel, Julien; Kug, Jong-Seong (March 2023, Climate Dynamics)

   As the dominant form of mesoscale variability in the equatorial eastern Pacific, Tropical Instability Waves (TIWs) are known to interact with the El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in complex ways. TIWs activity is modulated by the ENSO state and also provide significant feedback on ENSO via nonlinear dynamic heating (NDH), acting as a source of asymmetry between the El Niño and La Niña phases. In this work, we show that the interannual variability of TIWs-induced heat flux and NDH can be approximately expressed in terms of the mean meridional temperature gradient as TIWs tend to transport heat downgradient of the temperature anomalies along the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) front. The TIWs-induced NDH can be quantified as an asymmetric negative feedback on ENSO by a nonlinear thermal eddy diffusivity which depends on the background TIWs pattern and the ENSO-related linear and nonlinear processes. This proposed parameterization scheme can capture well the direct ENSO modulation on TIWs activity, the combination effect arising from the nonlinear interaction between ENSO and the cold tongue annual cycle, and associated ENSO nonlinearity. This parameterization scheme is effectively tested using four ocean reanalysis datasets with different horizontal resolutions that exhibit contrasted patterns of TIWs activity. This scheme may be useful for assessing the TIWs-induced feedback on ENSO in mechanistic ENSO models to better understand the dynamics of ENSO complexity. 

   more » « less
3. Decadal Modulation of the ENSO–Indian Ocean Basin Warming Relationship during the Decaying Summer by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

   https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0457.1  

   Liu, Fangyu; Zhang, Wenjun; Jin, Fei-Fei; Hu, Suqiong (April 2021, Journal of Climate)

   null (Ed.)

   Abstract Many previous studies have shown that an Indian Ocean basin warming (IOBW) occurs usually during El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) decaying spring to summer seasons through modifying the equatorial zonal circulation. Decadal modulation associated with the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO) is further investigated here to understand the nonstationary ENSO–IOBW relationship during ENSO decaying summer (July–September). During the positive IPO phase, significant warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are observed over the tropical Indian Ocean in El Niño decaying summers and vice versa for La Niña events, while these patterns are not well detected in the negative IPO phase. Different decaying speeds of ENSO associated with the IPO phase, largely controlled by both zonal advective and thermocline feedbacks, are suggested to be mainly responsible for these different ENSO–IOBW relationships. In contrast to ENSO events in the negative IPO phase, the ones in the positive IPO phase display a slower decaying speed and delay their transitions both from a warm to a cold state and a cold to a warm state. The slower decay of El Niño and La Niña thereby helps to sustain the teleconnection forcing over the equatorial Indian Ocean and corresponding SST anomalies there can persist into summer. This IPO modulation of the ENSO–IOBW relationship carries important implications for the seasonal prediction of the Indian Ocean SST anomalies and associated summer climate anomalies. 

   more » « less
4. South Pacific Oscillation contributes to multi-year ENSOs

   https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01130-9  

   Li, Xumin; Yu, Jin-Yi; Ding, Ruiqiang; Xu, Xiaofeng; Ji, Kai; Wen, Tao (December 2025, npj Climate and Atmospheric Science)

   Abstract Multi-year El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, where the warming (El Niño) or cooling (La Niña) extends beyond a single year, have become increasingly prominent in recent decades. Using observations and climate model simulations, we show that the South Pacific Oscillation (SPO) plays a crucial, previously unrecognized role in determining whether ENSO evolves into a multi-year event. Specifically, when an El Niño (La Niña) triggers a positive (negative) SPO in the extratropical Southern Hemisphere during its decaying phase, the SPO feedbacks onto the tropical Pacific through the wind-evaporation-sea surface temperature mechanism, helping sustain ENSO into a multi-year event. This SPO–ENSO interaction is absent in single-year ENSO events. Furthermore, whether ENSO can trigger the SPO depends systematically on the central SST anomaly location for El Niños and the anomaly intensity for La Niñas, with interference from atmospheric internal variability. These findings highlight the importance of including off-equatorial processes from the Southern Hemisphere in studies of ENSO complexity dynamics. 

   more » « less
5. The observed North Equatorial Counter Current in the far western Pacific Ocean during the 2014-2016 El Niño

   https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-20-0293.1  

   Zhou, Hui; Liu, Hengchang; Tan, Shuwen; Yang, Wenlong; Li, Yao; Liu, Xueqi; Ren, Qiang; Dewar, William K. (April 2021, Journal of Physical Oceanography)

   null (Ed.)

   Abstract The structure and variations of the North Equatorial Counter Current (NECC) in the far western Pacific Ocean during 2014-2016 are investigated using repeated in-situ hydrographic data, altimeter data, Argo data, and reanalysis data. The NECC shifted ~1 degree southward and intensified significantly with its transport exceeding 40 Sv (1 Sv = 10 6 m 3 s -1 ), nearly double its climatology value, during the developing phase of the 2015/16 El Niño event. Observations show that the 2015/16 El Niño exerted a comparable impact on the NECC with that of the extreme 1997/98 El Niño in the far western Pacific Ocean. Baroclinic instability provided the primary energy source for the eddy kinetic energy (EKE) in the 2015/16 El Niño, which differs from the traditional understanding of the energy source of EKE as barotropic instability in low latitude ocean. The enhanced vertical shear and the reduced density jump between the NECC layer and the subsurface North Equatorial Subsurface Current (NESC) layer renders the NECC–NESC system baroclinically unstable in the western Pacific Ocean during El Niño developing phase. The eddy-mean flow interactions here are diverse associated with various states of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). 

   more » « less