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In this work, we compare the air quality benefits of a variety of future policy scenarios geared towards controlling EGU (electricity generating units) emissions between the present-day conditions and 2050. While these policies are motivated by reducing CO2 emissions, they also yield significant co-benefits for criteria pollutants, such as ozone and PM2.5. An integrated set of clean energy policies were examined to assess the time-varying costs and benefits of a range of decarbonization strategies, including business as usual and the Affordable Clean Energy plan, with a primary focus on others that look to achieve very low, if not zero, CO2 emissions from the EGU sector by 2050. Benefits assessed include mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions as well as air quality co-benefits. In this introductory work, we describe the potential air quality changes from various clean air policies, to set the stage for upcoming work looking at health and monetized benefits. Emission changes for key pollutants are forecast using the Integrated Planning Model (IPM), which are then transformed into emission inputs for the Community Multiscale Air Quality Model (CMAQ). For all primary scenarios considered that achieve large greenhouse gas decreases, significant reductions in ozone and PM are realized, mainly in the eastern US, and all policies produce air quality benefits.
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Energy systems in scenarios at net-zero CO2 emissions
Abstract Achieving net-zero CO 2 emissions has become the explicitgoal of many climate-energy policies around the world. Although many studies have assessed net-zero emissions pathways, the common features and tradeoffs of energy systems across global scenarios at the point of net-zero CO 2 emissions have not yet been evaluated. Here, we examine the energy systems of 177 net-zero scenarios and discuss their long-term technological and regional characteristics in the context of current energy policies. We find that, on average, renewable energy sources account for 60% of primary energy at net-zero (compared to ∼14% today), with slightly less than half of that renewable energy derived from biomass. Meanwhile, electricity makes up approximately half of final energy consumed (compared to ∼20% today), highlighting the extent to which solid, liquid, and gaseous fuels remain prevalent in the scenarios even when emissions reach net-zero. Finally, residual emissions and offsetting negative emissions are not evenly distributed across world regions, which may have important implications for negotiations on burden-sharing, human development, and equity.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1639318
- PAR ID:
- 10300435
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Nature Communications
- Volume:
- 12
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 2041-1723
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-26356-y
