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Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) is a type of bacteria resistant to certain antibiotics, making it difficult to prevent MRSA infections. Among decades of efforts to conquer infectious diseases caused by MRSA, many studies have been proposed to estimate the causal effects of close contact (treatment) on MRSA infection (outcome) from observational data. In this problem, the treatment assignment mechanism plays a key role as it determines the patterns of missing counterfactuals --- the fundamental challenge of causal effect estimation. Most existing observational studies for causal effect learning assume that the treatment is assigned individually for each unit. However, on many occasions, the treatments are pairwisely assigned for units that are connected in graphs, i.e., the treatments of different units are entangled. Neglecting the entangled treatments can impede the causal effect estimation. In this paper, we study the problem of causal effect estimation with treatment entangled in a graph. Despite a few explorations for entangled treatments, this problem still remains challenging due to the following challenges: (1) the entanglement brings difficulties in modeling and leveraging the unknown treatment assignment mechanism; (2) there may exist hidden confounders which lead to confounding biases in causal effect estimation; (3) the observational data is often time-varying. To tackle these challenges, we propose a novel method NEAT, which explicitly leverages the graph structure to model the treatment assignment mechanism, and mitigates confounding biases based on the treatment assignment modeling. We also extend our method into a dynamic setting to handle time-varying observational data. Experiments on both synthetic datasets and a real-world MRSA dataset validate the effectiveness of the proposed method, and provide insights for future applications.
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Deconfounding with Networked Observational Data in a Dynamic Environment
One fundamental problem in causal inference is to learn the individual treatment effects (ITE) -- assessing the causal effects of a certain treatment (e.g., prescription of medicine) on an important outcome (e.g., cure of a disease) for each data instance, but the effectiveness of most existing methods is often limited due to the existence of hidden confounders. Recent studies have shown that the auxiliary relational information among data can be utilized to mitigate the confounding bias. However, these works assume that the observational data and the relations among them are static, while in reality, both of them will continuously evolve over time and we refer such data as time-evolving networked observational data. In this paper, we make an initial investigation of ITE estimation on such data. The problem remains difficult due to the following challenges: (1) modeling the evolution patterns of time-evolving networked observational data; (2) controlling the hidden confounders with current data and historical information; (3) alleviating the discrepancy between the control group and the treated group. To tackle these challenges, we propose a novel ITE estimation framework Dynamic Networked Observational Data Deconfounder (\mymodel) which aims to learn representations of hidden confounders over time by leveraging both current networked observational data and historical information. Additionally, a novel adversarial learning based representation balancing method is incorporated toward unbiased ITE estimation. Extensive experiments validate the superiority of our framework when measured against state-of-the-art baselines. The implementation can be accessed in https://github.com/jma712/DNDC https://github.com/jma712/DNDC.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2006844
- PAR ID:
- 10300530
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Proceedings of the The Fourteenth ACM International Conference on Web Search and Data Mining
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 166 to 174
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Conference Paper:
- https://doi.org/10.1145/3437963.3441818
