skip to main content
US FlagAn official website of the United States government
dot gov icon
Official websites use .gov
A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the United States.
https lock icon
Secure .gov websites use HTTPS
A lock ( lock ) or https:// means you've safely connected to the .gov website. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites.


Title: The Role of Elevated Terrain and the Gulf of Mexico in the Production of Severe Local Storm Environments over North America
Abstract The prevailing conceptual model for the production of severe local storm (SLS) environments over North America asserts that upstream elevated terrain and the Gulf of Mexico are both essential to their formation. This work tests this hypothesis using two prescribed-ocean climate model experiments with North American topography removed or the Gulf of Mexico converted to land and analyzes how SLS environments and associated synoptic-scale drivers (southerly Great Plains low-level jets, drylines, elevated mixed layers, and extratropical cyclones) change relative to a control historical run. Overall, SLS environments depend strongly on upstream elevated terrain but more weakly on the Gulf of Mexico. Removing elevated terrain substantially reduces SLS environments especially over the continental interior due to broad reductions in both thermodynamic instability and vertical wind shear, leaving a more zonally uniform residual distribution that is maximized near the Gulf coast and decays toward the continental interior. This response is associated with a strong reduction in synoptic-scale drivers and a cooler and drier mean-state atmosphere. Replacing the Gulf of Mexico with land modestly reduces SLS environments over the Great Plains (driven primarily thermodynamically) and increases them over the eastern United States (driven primarily kinematically), shifting the primary local maximum eastward into Illinois; it also eliminates the secondary, smaller local maximum over southern Texas. This response is associated with modest changes in synoptic-scale drivers and a warmer and drier lower troposphere. These experiments provide insight into the role of elevated terrain and the Gulf of Mexico in modifying the spatial distribution and seasonality of SLS environments.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
1648629 1648681
PAR ID:
10309239
Author(s) / Creator(s):
 ;  ;  ;  ;  
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Journal of Climate
Volume:
34
Issue:
19
ISSN:
0894-8755
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. null (Ed.)
    Abstract Severe local storm (SLS) activity is known to occur within specific thermodynamic and kinematic environments. These environments are commonly associated with key synoptic-scale features—including southerly Great Plains low-level jets, drylines, elevated mixed layers, and extratropical cyclones—that link the large-scale climate to SLS environments. This work analyzes spatiotemporal distributions of both extreme values of SLS environmental parameters and synoptic-scale features in the ERA5 reanalysis and in the Community Atmosphere Model, version 6 (CAM6), historical simulation during 1980–2014 over North America. Compared to radiosondes, ERA5 successfully reproduces SLS environments, with strong spatiotemporal correlations and low biases, especially over the Great Plains. Both ERA5 and CAM6 reproduce the climatology of SLS environments over the central United States as well as its strong seasonal and diurnal cycles. ERA5 and CAM6 also reproduce the climatological occurrence of the synoptic-scale features, with the distribution pattern similar to that of SLS environments. Compared to ERA5, CAM6 exhibits a high bias in convective available potential energy over the eastern United States primarily due to a high bias in surface moisture and, to a lesser extent, storm-relative helicity due to enhanced low-level winds. Composite analysis indicates consistent synoptic anomaly patterns favorable for significant SLS environments over much of the eastern half of the United States in both ERA5 and CAM6, though the pattern differs for the southeastern United States. Overall, our results indicate that both ERA5 and CAM6 are capable of reproducing SLS environments as well as the synoptic-scale features and transient events that generate them. 
    more » « less
  2. Abstract The first 2 weeks of December 2021 were exceptionally active for severe convective storms across the central and eastern United States. While previous work has indicated that this was related to the existence of a negative phase of the Pacific–North American pattern, we demonstrate that such a pattern was configured via dynamical linkages between multiple extratropical cyclogenesis events in the western North Pacific, the recurvature of Typhoon Nyatoh, and the subsequent phase evolution of the North Pacific jet. These processes were found to aid in the excitation of Rossby wave packets and the amplification of upper-level flow downstream over the Pacific, ultimately configuring synoptic-scale weather regimes supportive of anomalous high-frequency and high-intensity severe convective weather in the contiguous United States. In addition, abnormally warm Gulf of America/Gulf of Mexico sea surface temperatures, aided by a period of antecedent synoptic-scale subsidence, played a critical role in enhancing convective instability in the surface warm sector. This work underscores the importance of cataloging these events for purposes of examining (and potentially enhancing) predictability. Significance StatementThe first half of December 2021 recorded one of the most active cool-season severe weather periods in the United States, resulting in two billion-dollar convective outbreaks on 10 and 15 December. This study links these extreme events to upstream dynamical processes over the North Pacific, including extratropical cyclogenesis, the recurvature of Typhoon Nyatoh, and the retraction of the North Pacific jet. These processes amplified downstream flow and configured synoptic environments favorable for severe weather across the United States. Additionally, anomalously warm Gulf of America/Gulf of Mexico sea surface temperatures enhanced convective instability. By identifying these key precursors, this work highlights the potential for improved anticipation of extended-range severe weather likelihood—particularly during the cool season—when such events remain rare but highly impactful. 
    more » « less
  3. Abstract This first multi‐year investigation focuses on bores over the southern North China Plain during the 2015–2019 warm seasons. Bore structure depended on location with undular bores tending to occur close to the coast and non‐undular bores to the west near elevated terrain. Bores were most likely to occur during June and July when convection is active. While bore frequency over the Southern Great Plains (SGP) of U.S. is linked to the region's nocturnal low‐level jet, the bores herein were sensitive to the synoptic regime with ∼80% occurring during 4‐to‐5‐day periods under three different synoptic regimes. The bores had shorter durations than their SGP counterparts and a far wider range in their direction of propagation. Overall, these findings find regional differences in bores' frequency, movement, and structure serving an impetus for future investigations of nocturnal mesoscale convective systems and bores over China and other locations worldwide. 
    more » « less
  4. This research applies an automated mesoscale convective system (MCS) segmentation, classification, and tracking approach to composite radar reflectivity mosaic images that cover the contiguous United States (CONUS) and span a relatively long study period of 22 years (1996–2017). These data afford a novel assessment of the seasonal and interannual variability of MCSs. Additionally, hourly precipitation data from 16 of those years (2002–17) are used to systematically examine rainfall associated with radar-derived MCS events. The attributes and occurrence of MCSs that pass over portions of the CONUS east of the Continental Divide (ECONUS), as well as five author-defined subregions—North Plains, High Plains, Corn Belt, Northeast, and Mid-South—are also examined. The results illustrate two preferred regions for MCS activity in the ECONUS: 1) the Mid-South and Gulf Coast and 2) the Central Plains and Midwest. MCS occurrence and MCS rainfall display a marked seasonal cycle, with most of the regions experiencing these events primarily during the warm season (May–August). Additionally, MCS rainfall was responsible for over 50% of annual and seasonal rainfall for many locations in the ECONUS. Of particular importance, the majority of warm-season rainfall for regions with high agricultural land use (Corn Belt) and important aquifer recharge properties (High Plains) is attributable to MCSs. These results reaffirm that MCSs are a significant aspect of the ECONUS hydroclimate. 
    more » « less
  5. Central North America is the global hotspot for tornadoes, fueled by elevated terrain of the Rockies to the west and a source of warm, moist air from equatorward oceans. This conventional wisdom argues that central South America, with the Andes to the west and Amazon basin to the north, should have a “tornado alley” at least as active as central North America. Central South America has frequent severe thunderstorms yet relatively few tornadoes. Here, we show that conventional wisdom is missing an important ingredient specific to tornadoes: a smooth, flat ocean-like upstream surface. Using global climate model experiments, we show that central South American tornado potential substantially increases if its equatorward land surface is smoothed and flattened to be ocean-like. Similarly, we show that central North American tornado potential substantially decreases if its equatorward ocean surface is roughened to values comparable to forested land. A rough upstream surface suppresses the formation of tornadic environments principally by weakening the poleward low-level winds, characterized by a weakened low-level jet east of the mountain range. Results are shown to be robust for any midlatitude landmass using idealized experiments with a simplified continent and mountain range. Our findings indicate that large-scale upstream surface roughness is likely a first-order driver of the strong contrast in tornado potential between North and South America. 
    more » « less