This article expands upon my presentation to the panel on “The Radical Prescription for Change” at the 2017 ASA (American Statistical Association) symposium on A World Beyond $p<0.05$. It emphasizes that, to greatly enhance the reliability of—and hence public trust in—statistical and data scientific findings, we need to take a holistic approach. We need to lead by example, incentivize study quality, and inoculate future generations with profound appreciations for the world of uncertainty and the uncertainty world. The four “radical” proposals in the title—with all their inherent defects and trade-offs—are designed to provoke reactions and actions. First, research methodologies are trustworthy only if they deliver what they promise, even if this means that they have to be overly protective, a necessary trade-off for practicing quality-guaranteed statistics. This guiding principle may compel us to doubling variance in some situations, a strategy that also coincides with the call to raise the bar from $p<0.05$ to $p<0.005$ [3]. Second, teaching principled practicality or corner-cutting is a promising strategy to enhance the scientific community’s as well as the general public’s ability to spot—and hence to deter—flawed arguments or findings. A remarkable quick-and-dirty Bayes formula for rare events, which simply divides the prevalence by the sum of the prevalence and the false positive rate (or the total error rate), as featured by the popular radio show Car Talk, illustrates the effectiveness of this strategy. Third, it should be a routine mental exercise to put ourselves in the shoes of those who would be affected by our research finding, in order to combat the tendency of rushing to conclusions or overstating confidence in our findings. A pufferfish/selfish test can serve as an effective reminder, and can help to institute the mantra “Thou shalt not sell what thou refuseth to buy” as the most basic professional decency. Considering personal stakes in our statistical endeavors also points to the concept of behavioral statistics, in the spirit of behavioral economics. Fourth, the current mathematical education paradigm that puts “deterministic first, stochastic second” is likely responsible for the general difficulties with reasoning under uncertainty, a situation that can be improved by introducing the concept of histogram, or rather kidstogram, as early as the concept of counting.
more »
« less
Your peers are your pillars
- Award ID(s):
- 2047017
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10309864
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Science
- Volume:
- 374
- Issue:
- 6567
- ISSN:
- 0036-8075
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
null (Ed.)Individual Development Plans (IDPs) have been used to support the career and professional development of graduate students across disciplines. This interactive session focuses on how IDPs can help you build your skills, form your professional identity, and take control of your career through an iterative process of self‐assessment, career exploration, decision making and goal setting. To provide an introduction to the IDP process attendees will be able to take a self‐assessment to learn about their particular strengths and begin to target their strengths toward their professional goals. Additionally a co‐developer and researcher of IDP platforms will highlight the aspects that can help your IDP be more effective than others.more » « less
-
Your brain can be divided into various areas, one of which is responsible for your sense of touch. This part of your brain can be divided into even smaller areas that communicate with each body part. We can use a special map of the human body, called a sensory homunculus, to help us understand the various sizes of these parts of the brain. We will explain how this map was created and tell you about research showing how these brain areas can change. One study showed that brain areas can be recycled, meaning that the brain areas that no longer receive messages from the body can be used by other functioning brain areas. Another study showed that these changes can even occur within a single day! These studies can help scientists to better understand the brain and to help people who have problems with the sense of touch.more » « less
-
In a built environment, wanting to see without direct line of sight is often due to being outside a doorway. The two vertical edges of the doorway provide occlusions that can be exploited for non-line-of-sight imaging by forming corner cameras. While each corner camera can separately yield a robust 1D reconstruction, joint processing suggests novelties in both forward modeling and inversion. The resulting doorway camera provides accurate and robust 2D reconstructions of the hidden scene. This work provides a novel inversion algorithm to jointly estimate two views of change in the hidden scene, using the temporal difference between photographs acquired on the visible side of the doorway. Successful reconstruction is demonstrated in a variety of real and rendered scenarios, including different hidden scenes and lighting conditions. A Cramer-Rao bound analysis is used to demonstrate the 2D resolving power of the doorway camera over other passive acquisition strategies and to motivate the novel biangular reconstruction grid.more » « less
-
Alertness is a crucial component of our cognitive performance. Reduced alertness can negatively impact memory consolidation, productivity and safety. As a result, there has been an increasing focus on continuous assessment of alertness. The existing methods usually require users to wear sensors, fill out questionnaires, or perform response time tests periodically, in order to track their alertness. These methods may be obtrusvie to some users, and thus have limited capability. In this work, we propose AlertnessScanner, a computer-vision-based system that collects in-situ pupil information to model alertness in the wild. We conducted two in-the-wild studies to evaluate the effectiveness of our solution, and found that AlertnessScanner passively and unobtrusively assess alertness. We discuss the implications of our findings and present opportunities for mobile applications that measure and act upon changes in alertness.more » « less