skip to main content


Title: A roadmap towards predicting species interaction networks (across space and time)
Networks of species interactions underpin numerous ecosystem processes, but comprehensively sampling these interactions is difficult. Interactions intrinsically vary across space and time, and given the number of species that compose ecological communities, it can be tough to distinguish between a true negative (where two species never interact) from a false negative (where two species have not been observed interacting even though they actually do). Assessing the likelihood of interactions between species is an imperative for several fields of ecology. This means that to predict interactions between species—and to describe the structure, variation, and change of the ecological networks they form—we need to rely on modelling tools. Here, we provide a proof-of-concept, where we show how a simple neural network model makes accurate predictions about species interactions given limited data. We then assess the challenges and opportunities associated with improving interaction predictions, and provide a conceptual roadmap forward towards predictive models of ecological networks that is explicitly spatial and temporal. We conclude with a brief primer on the relevant methods and tools needed to start building these models, which we hope will guide this research programme forward. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Infectious disease macroecology: parasite diversity and dynamics across the globe’.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
2021909
NSF-PAR ID:
10312503
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
Volume:
376
Issue:
1837
ISSN:
0962-8436
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. It takes great effort to manually or semi-automatically convert free-text phenotype narratives (e.g., morphological descriptions in taxonomic works) to a computable format before they can be used in large-scale analyses. We argue that neither a manual curation approach nor an information extraction approach based on machine learning is a sustainable solution to produce computable phenotypic data that are FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, Reusable) (Wilkinson et al. 2016). This is because these approaches do not scale to all biodiversity, and they do not stop the publication of free-text phenotypes that would need post-publication curation. In addition, both manual and machine learning approaches face great challenges: the problem of inter-curator variation (curators interpret/convert a phenotype differently from each other) in manual curation, and keywords to ontology concept translation in automated information extraction, make it difficult for either approach to produce data that are truly FAIR. Our empirical studies show that inter-curator variation in translating phenotype characters to Entity-Quality statements (Mabee et al. 2007) is as high as 40% even within a single project. With this level of variation, curated data integrated from multiple curation projects may still not be FAIR. The key causes of this variation have been identified as semantic vagueness in original phenotype descriptions and difficulties in using standardized vocabularies (ontologies). We argue that the authors describing characters are the key to the solution. Given the right tools and appropriate attribution, the authors should be in charge of developing a project's semantics and ontology. This will speed up ontology development and improve the semantic clarity of the descriptions from the moment of publication. In this presentation, we will introduce the Platform for Author-Driven Computable Data and Ontology Production for Taxonomists, which consists of three components: a web-based, ontology-aware software application called 'Character Recorder,' which features a spreadsheet as the data entry platform and provides authors with the flexibility of using their preferred terminology in recording characters for a set of specimens (this application also facilitates semantic clarity and consistency across species descriptions); a set of services that produce RDF graph data, collects terms added by authors, detects potential conflicts between terms, dispatches conflicts to the third component and updates the ontology with resolutions; and an Android mobile application, 'Conflict Resolver,' which displays ontological conflicts and accepts solutions proposed by multiple experts. a web-based, ontology-aware software application called 'Character Recorder,' which features a spreadsheet as the data entry platform and provides authors with the flexibility of using their preferred terminology in recording characters for a set of specimens (this application also facilitates semantic clarity and consistency across species descriptions); a set of services that produce RDF graph data, collects terms added by authors, detects potential conflicts between terms, dispatches conflicts to the third component and updates the ontology with resolutions; and an Android mobile application, 'Conflict Resolver,' which displays ontological conflicts and accepts solutions proposed by multiple experts. Fig. 1 shows the system diagram of the platform. The presentation will consist of: a report on the findings from a recent survey of 90+ participants on the need for a tool like Character Recorder; a methods section that describes how we provide semantics to an existing vocabulary of quantitative characters through a set of properties that explain where and how a measurement (e.g., length of perigynium beak) is taken. We also report on how a custom color palette of RGB values obtained from real specimens or high-quality specimen images, can be used to help authors choose standardized color descriptions for plant specimens; and a software demonstration, where we show how Character Recorder and Conflict Resolver can work together to construct both human-readable descriptions and RDF graphs using morphological data derived from species in the plant genus Carex (sedges). The key difference of this system from other ontology-aware systems is that authors can directly add needed terms to the ontology as they wish and can update their data according to ontology updates. a report on the findings from a recent survey of 90+ participants on the need for a tool like Character Recorder; a methods section that describes how we provide semantics to an existing vocabulary of quantitative characters through a set of properties that explain where and how a measurement (e.g., length of perigynium beak) is taken. We also report on how a custom color palette of RGB values obtained from real specimens or high-quality specimen images, can be used to help authors choose standardized color descriptions for plant specimens; and a software demonstration, where we show how Character Recorder and Conflict Resolver can work together to construct both human-readable descriptions and RDF graphs using morphological data derived from species in the plant genus Carex (sedges). The key difference of this system from other ontology-aware systems is that authors can directly add needed terms to the ontology as they wish and can update their data according to ontology updates. The software modules currently incorporated in Character Recorder and Conflict Resolver have undergone formal usability studies. We are actively recruiting Carex experts to participate in a 3-day usability study of the entire system of the Platform for Author-Driven Computable Data and Ontology Production for Taxonomists. Participants will use the platform to record 100 characters about one Carex species. In addition to usability data, we will collect the terms that participants submit to the underlying ontology and the data related to conflict resolution. Such data allow us to examine the types and the quantities of logical conflicts that may result from the terms added by the users and to use Discrete Event Simulation models to understand if and how term additions and conflict resolutions converge. We look forward to a discussion on how the tools (Character Recorder is online at http://shark.sbs.arizona.edu/chrecorder/public) described in our presentation can contribute to producing and publishing FAIR data in taxonomic studies. 
    more » « less
  2. Abstract

    Ecological communities are structured by a combination of local processes like habitat filtering and species interactions, and regional forces driven by the dispersal of organisms between localities on a landscape. Previous studies suggest that the position of local communities within a dispersal network can greatly influence the relative influence of these two sets of processes on community assembly. However, the majority of previous investigations have used models or inferences based on observational data to investigate these hypotheses, while experiments directly addressing this question have been rare.

    We experimentally investigated the relative influence of local and regional processes in structuring benthic invertebrate communities using artificial streams. We manipulated three factors—source pool for the macroinvertebrate community (headwater vs. mainstem) as a surrogate of network location, habitat complexity (high vs. low) in the flume, and dispersal (high vs. low)—and followed changes in macroinvertebrate community structure for 8 weeks.

    Previous research suggests that because headwater (HW) streams are isolated within river networks,HWs are less influenced by regional processes relative to more well‐connected mainstems (MSs). We therefore predicted (i) that flumes colonised from aHWsource community would respond more strongly to our dispersal treatment than those colonised byMScommunities becauseMSwere already largely structured through dispersal‐driven processes, and (ii) that bothHWandMScommunities would respond to manipulations of local habitat, indicating that responses to the dispersal treatment were a direct result of dispersal driven dynamics rather than specific affinity for conditions in the flumes.

    Both of our predictions were strongly supported by the results of the experiment. For flumes withHWsource pools, the high dispersal treatment had significantly higher diversity than low dispersal flumes. However, this difference only occurred in flumes withHWsource pools and did not occur in flumes withMSsources. There was also strong evidence of community composition inHWflumes shifting significantly towards the macroinvertebrate composition in our experimental dispersal treatment. The major effect of experimental dispersal was to introduce new species in fairly low abundances as would be expected from dispersal via drift over a relatively short time. BothMSandHWcolonised flumes showed highly significant signals of habitat filtering, though the influence of specific habitat differed between the source types.

    These results support the hypothesis that dispersal driven processes are a more important structuring force in well‐connected areas of networks by experimentally demonstrating the responsiveness of previously isolated communities to experimentally induced dispersal. They also demonstrate that this responsiveness is not due to an inherent difference in habitat affinity since source communities from bothHWs andMSs responded to manipulation of habitat variables. This experiment only simulated one type of dispersal process in streams—drifting—and did not include simulated dispersal from other sources, nor did it include population dynamics given the relatively short duration of the experiment. Nevertheless, the sensitivity of previously isolated communities to one type of simulated dispersal is a powerful indication of the mechanisms that structure these systems.

     
    more » « less
  3. Abstract Background

    MacArthur and Wilson's theory of island biogeography has been a foundation for obtaining testable predictions from models of community assembly and for developing models that integrate across scales and disciplines. Historically, however, these developments have focused on integration across ecological and macroevolutionary scales and on predicting patterns of species richness, abundance distributions, trait data and/or phylogenies. The distribution of genetic variation across species within a community is an emerging pattern that contains signatures of past population histories, which might provide an historical lens for the study of contemporary communities. As intraspecific genetic diversity data become increasingly available at the scale of entire communities, there is an opportunity to integrate microevolutionary processes into our models, moving towards development of a genetic theory of island biogeography.

    Motivation/goal

    We aim to promote the development of process‐based biodiversity models that predict community genetic diversity patterns together with other community‐scale patterns. To this end, we review models of ecological, microevolutionary and macroevolutionary processes that are best suited to the creation of unified models, and the patterns that these predict. We then discuss ongoing and potential future efforts to unify models operating at different organizational levels, with the goal of predicting multidimensional community‐scale data including a genetic component.

    Main conclusions

    Our review of the literature shows that despite recent efforts, further methodological developments are needed, not only to incorporate the genetic component into existing island biogeography models, but also to unify processes across scales of biological organization. To catalyse these developments, we outline two potential ways forward, adopting either a top‐down or a bottom‐up approach. Finally, we highlight key ecological and evolutionary questions that might be addressed by unified models including a genetic component and establish hypotheses about how processes across scales might impact patterns of community genetic diversity.

     
    more » « less
  4. Abstract

    Warming has broad and often nonlinear impacts on organismal physiology and traits, allowing it to impact species interactions like predation through a variety of pathways that may be difficult to predict. Predictions are commonly based on short‐term experiments and models, and these studies often yield conflicting results depending on the environmental context, spatiotemporal scale, and the predator and prey species considered. Thus, the accuracy of predicted changes in interaction strength, and their importance to the broader ecosystems they take place in, remain unclear. Here, we attempted to link one such set of predictions generated using theory, modeling, and controlled experiments to patterns in the natural abundance of prey across a broad thermal gradient. To do so, we first predicted how warming would impact a stage‐structured predator–prey interaction in riverine rock pools betweenPantalaspp. dragonfly nymph predators andAedes atropalpusmosquito larval prey. We then described temperature variation across a set of hundreds of riverine rock pools (n = 775) and leveraged this natural gradient to look for evidence for or against our model's predictions. Our model's predictions suggested that warming should weaken predator control of mosquito larval prey by accelerating their development and shrinking the window of time during which aquatic dragonfly nymphs could consume them. This was consistent with data collected in rock pool ecosystems, where the negative effects of dragonfly nymph predators on mosquito larval abundance were weaker in warmer pools. Our findings provide additional evidence to substantiate our model‐derived predictions while emphasizing the importance of assessing similar predictions using natural gradients of temperature whenever possible.

     
    more » « less
  5. Abstract Aim

    How do factors such as space, time, climate and other ecological drivers influence food web structure and dynamics? Collections of well‐studied food webs and replicate food webs from the same system that span biogeographical and ecological gradients now enable detailed, quantitative investigation of such questions and help integrate food web ecology and macroecology. Here, we integrate macroecology and food web ecology by focusing on how ecogeographical rules [the latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG), Bergmann's rule, the island rule and Rapoport's rule] are associated with the architecture of food webs.

    Location

    Global.

    Time period

    Current.

    Major taxa studied

    All taxa.

    Methods

    We discuss the implications of each ecogeographical rule for food webs, present predictions for how food web structure will vary with each rule, assess empirical support where available, and discuss how food webs may influence ecogeographical rules. Finally, we recommend systems and approaches for further advancing this research agenda.

    Results

    We derived testable predictions for some ecogeographical rules (e.g. LDG, Rapoport's rule), while for others (e.g., Bergmann's and island rules) it is less clear how we would expect food webs to change over macroecological scales. Based on the LDG, we found weak support for both positive and negative relationships between food chain length and latitude and for increased generality and linkage density at higher latitudes. Based on Rapoport's rule, we found support for the prediction that species turnover in food webs is inversely related to latitude.

    Main conclusions

    The macroecology of food webs goes beyond traditional approaches to biodiversity at macroecological scales by focusing on trophic interactions among species. The collection of food web data for different types of ecosystems across biogeographical gradients is key to advance this research agenda. Further, considering food web interactions as a selection pressure that drives or disrupts ecogeographical rules has the potential to address both mechanisms of and deviations from these macroecological relationships. For these reasons, further integration of macroecology and food webs will help ecologists better understand the assembly, maintenance and change of ecosystems across space and time.

     
    more » « less