skip to main content
US FlagAn official website of the United States government
dot gov icon
Official websites use .gov
A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the United States.
https lock icon
Secure .gov websites use HTTPS
A lock ( lock ) or https:// means you've safely connected to the .gov website. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites.


Title: A roadmap towards predicting species interaction networks (across space and time)
Networks of species interactions underpin numerous ecosystem processes, but comprehensively sampling these interactions is difficult. Interactions intrinsically vary across space and time, and given the number of species that compose ecological communities, it can be tough to distinguish between a true negative (where two species never interact) from a false negative (where two species have not been observed interacting even though they actually do). Assessing the likelihood of interactions between species is an imperative for several fields of ecology. This means that to predict interactions between species—and to describe the structure, variation, and change of the ecological networks they form—we need to rely on modelling tools. Here, we provide a proof-of-concept, where we show how a simple neural network model makes accurate predictions about species interactions given limited data. We then assess the challenges and opportunities associated with improving interaction predictions, and provide a conceptual roadmap forward towards predictive models of ecological networks that is explicitly spatial and temporal. We conclude with a brief primer on the relevant methods and tools needed to start building these models, which we hope will guide this research programme forward. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Infectious disease macroecology: parasite diversity and dynamics across the globe’.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
2021909
PAR ID:
10312503
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
Volume:
376
Issue:
1837
ISSN:
0962-8436
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. Globally, universities have heavily invested in makerspaces. This investment requires an understanding of how students use tools and how tools to aid in engineering education, as well as how the spaces can be improved. Network analysis of human systems can often yield valuable information about how the networks work and function. Applying network techniques to makerspaces can yield helpful information that is otherwise not visible. This thesis’s primary focus is the application of a variety of bio-inspired network techniques to improve the understanding of the makerspace. Several parallels can be drawn between makerspace networks and other mutualistic networks, such as plant-and-pollinator networks where the system’s success depends on the interaction between the two species. The ecological metrics would establish measurable values that the health and conditions of a network can be evaluated using. These three metrics are nestedness, modularity, and connectance, which can provide structural information about the network and act as diagnostics tools that can change depending on different system conditions. The makerspace at the universities went through several regulatory changes due to COVID-19, providing a unique opportunity to utilize the metrics to analyze the health of the space under higher regulatory restrictions and return to normal operations. The makerspace is converted into a bipartite network to allow for ecological analysis techniques where the spaces are modeled with students interacting with tools. Null models evaluate the significance of the nestedness and modularity results. Findings indicate that makerspaces tend to be structurally nested, but when compared to normal operating conditions, they can be seen to exhibit modularity during the higher restriction environment. The makerspace network and subsequent analysis provide insight into the use of ecological metrics in human systems and provide potential ideas for results to be used in various networks. The following network analysis also yields valuable information identifying essential hub tools and student interactions within the space, showcasing the capabilities the ecological study of human networks can have on human systems. 
    more » « less
  2. The scaling relationship observed between species richness and the geographical area sampled (i.e. the species-area relationship (SAR)) is a widely recognized macroecological relationship. Recently, this theory has been extended to trophic interactions, suggesting that geographical area may influence the structure of species interaction networks (i.e. network-area relationships (NARs)). Here, we use a global dataset of host–helminth parasite interactions to test existing predictions from macroecological theory. Scaling between single locations to the global host–helminth network by sequentially adding networks together, we find support that geographical area influences species richness and the number of species interactions in host–helminth networks. However, species-area slopes were larger for host species relative to their helminth parasites, counter to theoretical predictions. Lastly, host–helminth network modularity—capturing the tendency of the network to form into separate subcommunities—decreased with increasing area, also counter to theoretical predictions. Reconciling this disconnect between existing theory and observed SAR and NAR will provide insight into the spatial structuring of ecological networks, and help to refine theory to highlight the effects of network type, species distributional overlap, and the specificity of trophic interactions on NARs. 
    more » « less
  3. Abstract As modeling tools and approaches become more advanced, ecological models are becoming more complex. Traditional sensitivity analyses can struggle to identify the nonlinearities and interactions emergent from such complexity, especially across broad swaths of parameter space. This limits understanding of the ecological mechanisms underlying model behavior. Machine learning approaches are a potential answer to this issue, given their predictive ability when applied to complex large datasets. While perceptions that machine learning is a “black box” linger, we seek to illuminate its interpretive potential in ecological modeling. To do so, we detail our process of applying random forests to complex model dynamics to produce both high predictive accuracy and elucidate the ecological mechanisms driving our predictions. Specifically, we employ an empirically rooted ontogenetically stage-structured consumer-resource simulation model. Using simulation parameters as feature inputs and simulation output as dependent variables in our random forests, we extended feature analyses into a simple graphical analysis from which we reduced model behavior to three core ecological mechanisms. These ecological mechanisms reveal the complex interactions between internal plant demography and trophic allocation driving community dynamics while preserving the predictive accuracy achieved by our random forests. 
    more » « less
  4. Abstract Behavioral plasticity in animals influences direct species interactions, but its effects can also spread unpredictably through ecological networks, creating indirect interactions that are difficult to anticipate. We use coarse‐grained models to investigate how changes in species behavior shape indirect interactions and influence ecological network dynamics. As an illustrative example, we examine predators that feed on two types of prey, each of which temporarily reduces activity after evading an attack, thereby lowering vulnerability at the expense of growth. We demonstrate that this routine behavior shifts the indirect interaction between prey species from apparent competition to mutualism or parasitism. These shifts occur when predator capture efficiency drops below a critical threshold, causing frequent hunting failures. As a result, one prey species indirectly promotes the growth of the other by relaxing its density dependence through a cascade of network effects, paradoxically increasing predator biomass despite decreased hunting success. Empirical capture probabilities often fall within the range where such dynamics are predicted. We characterize such shifts in the qualitative nature of species interactions as changes ininteraction valence, highlighting how routine animal behaviors reshape community structure through cascading changes within ecological networks. 
    more » « less
  5. PREMISE Quantifying how closely related plant species differ in susceptibility to insect herbivory is important for our understanding of variation in plant-insect ecological interactions and evolutionary pressures on plant functional traits. However, empirically measuring in situ variation in herbivory over the entire geographic range where a plant-insect complex occurs is logistically difficult. Recently, new methods have been developed to use herbarium specimens to investigate patterns in plant-insect interactions across geographic areas, and during periods of accelerating anthropogenic change. Such investigations can provide insights into changes in herbivory intensity and phenology in plants that are of ecological and agricultural importance. METHODS Here, we analyze 274 pressed herbarium samples from all 14 species in the economically important plant genus Cucurbita (Cucurbitaceae) to investigate variation in herbivory damage. This collection is comprised of specimens of wild, undomesticated Cucurbita that were collected from across their native range in the Neotropics and subtropics, and Cucurbita cultivars that were collected from both within their native range and from locations where they have been introduced for agriculture in temperate Eastern North America. RESULTS We find that herbivory is common on individuals of all Cucurbita species collected from throughout their geographic ranges; however, estimates of herbivory varied considerably among individuals, with greater damage observed in specimens collected from unmanaged habitat. We also find evidence that mesophytic species accrue more insect damage than xerophytic species. CONCLUSIONS Our study demonstrates that herbarium specimens are a useful resource for understanding ecological interactions between domesticated crop plants and co-evolved insect herbivores. 
    more » « less