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Accurately forecasting Arctic sea ice from sub- seasonal to seasonal scales has been a major scientific effort with fundamental challenges at play. In addition to physics-based earth system models, researchers have been applying multiple statistical and machine learning models for sea ice forecast- ing. Looking at the potential of data-driven sea ice forecasting, we propose an attention-based Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) ensemble method to predict monthly sea ice extent up to 1 month ahead. Using daily and monthly satellite retrieved sea ice data from NSIDC and atmospheric and oceanic variables from ERA5 reanalysis product for 39 years, we show that our multi-temporal ensemble method outperforms several baseline and recently proposed deep learning models. This will substantially improve our ability in predicting future Arctic sea ice changes, which is fundamental for forecasting transporting routes, resource development, coastal erosion, threats to Arctic coastal communities and wildlife.
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Multi-Task Deep Learning Based Spatiotemporal Arctic Sea Ice Forecasting
Important natural resources in the Arctic rely heavily on sea ice, making it important to forecast Arctic sea ice changes. Arctic sea ice forecasting often involves two connected tasks: sea ice concentration at each pixel and overall sea ice extent. Instead of having two separate models for two forecasting tasks, in this report, we study how to use multi-task learning techniques and leverage the connections between ice concentration and ice extent to improve accuracy for both prediction tasks. Because of the spatiotemporal nature of the data, we designed two novel multi-task learning models based on CNNs and ConvLSTMs, respectively. We also developed a custom loss function which trains the models to ignore land pixels when making predictions. Our experiments show our models can have better accuracies than separate models that predict sea ice extent and concentration separately, and that our accuracies are better than or comparable with results in the state-of-the-art studies.
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- PAR ID:
- 10313429
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- 2021 IEEE International Conference on Big Data (BigData 2021)
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Conference Paper:
- https://doi.org/10.1109/BigData52589.2021.9671491
