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Following an earthquake, ground motion time series are needed to carry out site-specific nonlinear response history analysis. However, the number of currently available recording instruments is sparse; thus, the ground motion time series at uninstrumented sites must be estimated. Tamhidi et al. developed a Gaussian process regression (GPR) model to generate ground motion time series given a set of recorded ground motions surrounding the target site. This GPR model interpolates the observed ground motions’ Fourier Transform coefficients to generate the target site’s Fourier spectrum and the corresponding time series. The robustness of the optimized hyperparameter of the model depends on the surrounding observation density. In this study, we carried out sensitivity analysis and tuned the hyperparameter of the GPR model for various observation densities. The 2019 M7.1 Ridgecrest and 2020 M4.5 South El Monte earthquake data sets recorded by the Community Seismic Network and California Integrated Seismic Network in Southern California are used to demonstrate the process. To provide a tool to quantify the uncertainty of the generated motions, a methodology to develop realizations of ground motion time series is also incorporated. The results illustrate that the uncertainty of the generated motions is lower at longer periods. It is shown that the observation density in the proximity of the target site plays a vital role in both error and uncertainty reduction of the generated time series. To demonstrate the concept, the effect of additional observations from combined recording networks is investigated.
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SATELLITE DRAG COEFFICIENT MODELING AND ORBIT UNCERTAINTY QUANTIFICATION USING STOCHASTIC MACHINE LEARNING TECHNIQUES
The rapidly increasing congestion in the low Earth environment makes the modeling of uncertainty in atmospheric drag force a critical task, affecting space situational awareness (SSA) activities like the probability of collision estimation. A key element in atmospheric drag modeling is the assessment of uncertainty in the atmospheric drag coefficient estimate. While atmospheric drag coefficients for space objects with known characteristics can be computed numerically, they suffer from large computational costs for practical applications. In this work, we use cost-effective data-driven stochastic methods for modeling the drag coefficients of objects in the low Earth orbit (LEO) region. The training data is generated using the numerical Test Particle Monte Carlo (TPMC) method. TPMC is simulated with Cercignani–Lampis–Lord (CLL) gas-surface interaction (GSI) model. Mehta et al. [1] use a Gaussian process regression (GPR) model to predict satellite drag coefficient, but the authors did not estimate the predictive uncertainty. The first part of this research extends the work by Mehta et al. [1] by fitting a GPR model to the training data and performing predictive uncertainty estimation. The results of the Gaussian fit are then compared against a deep neural network (DNN) model aided by the Monte Carlo dropout approach. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to use the aforementioned stochastic deep learning algorithm to perform predictive uncertainty estimation of the estimated satellite drag coefficient. Apart from the accuracy of the models, we also undertake the task of calibrating the models. Simulations are carried out for a spherical satellite followed by the Champ satellite. Finally, quantification of the effect of drag coefficient uncertainty on orbit prediction is carried out for different solar activity and geomagnetic activity levels.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1726534
- PAR ID:
- 10315463
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- American Astronomical Society meeting
- ISSN:
- 2152-887X
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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