Anticipating the next generation of forests requires understanding of recruitment responses to habitat change. Tree distribution and abundance depend not only on climate, but also on habitat variables, such as soils and drainage, and on competition beneath a shaded canopy. Recent analyses show that North American tree species are migrating in response to climate change, which is exposing each population to novel climate-habitat interactions (CHI). Because CHI have not been estimated for either adult trees or regeneration (recruits per year per adult basal area), we cannot evaluate migration potential into the future. Using the Masting Inference and Forecasting (MASTIF) network of tree fecundity and new continent-wide observations of tree recruitment, we quantify impacts for redistribution across life stages from adults to fecundity to recruitment. We jointly modeled response of adult abundance and recruitment rate to climate/habitat conditions, combined with fecundity sensitivity, to evaluate if shifting CHI explain community reorganization. To compare climate effects with tree fecundity, which is estimated from trees and thus is "conditional" on tree presence, we demonstrate how to quantify this conditional status for regeneration. We found that fecundity was regulated by temperature to a greater degree than other stages, yet exhibited limited responses to moisture deficit. Recruitment rate expressed strong sensitivities to CHI, more like adults than fecundity, but still with substantial differences. Communities reorganized from adults to fecundity, but there was a re-coalescence of groups as seedling recruitment partially reverted to community structure similar to that of adults. Results provide the first estimates of continent-wide community sensitivity and their implications for reorganization across three life-history stages under climate change.
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North American tree migration paced by climate in the West, lagging in the East
Tree fecundity and recruitment have not yet been quantified at scales needed to anticipate biogeographic shifts in response to climate change. By separating their responses, this study shows coherence across species and communities, offering the strongest support to date that migration is in progress with regional limitations on rates. The southeastern continent emerges as a fecundity hotspot, but it is situated south of population centers where high seed production could contribute to poleward population spread. By contrast, seedling success is highest in the West and North, serving to partially offset limited seed production near poleward frontiers. The evidence of fecundity and recruitment control on tree migration can inform conservation planning for the expected long-term disequilibrium between climate and forest distribution.
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- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10316278
- Author(s) / Creator(s):
- ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; more »
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Volume:
- 119
- Issue:
- 3
- ISSN:
- 0027-8424
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Abstract The complex effects of global environmental changes on ecosystems result from the interaction of multiple stressors, their direct impacts on species and their indirect impacts on species interactions. Air pollution (and resulting depletion of soil base cations) and biotic invasion (e.g. beech bark disease [BBD] complex) are two stressors that are affecting the foundational tree species of northern hardwood forests, sugar maple and American beech, in northeastern North America.
At the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire, a watershed‐scale calcium (Ca) addition in 1999 restored soil Ca that had been lost as a result of acid deposition in a maple‐beech forest that was severely affected by BBD beginning in the 1970s. We present historic data from the reference watershed for BBD progression, 20 years of comparative forest data from the treated and reference watersheds, and tree demographic rates for the most recent decade. We hypothesized that mitigation of soil acidification on the treated watershed in the presence of BBD would favour improved performance of sugar maple, a species that is particularly sensitive to base cation depletion.
We observed significant responses of seed production, seedling bank composition, sapling survival and recruitment, and tree mortality and growth to the restoration of soil Ca, indicating that acid rain depletion of soil base cations has influenced demographic rates of maple and beech. Overall, the reduced performance of sugar maple on acidified soils may indirectly favour the persistence of diseased beech trees and a greater abundance of beech vegetative sprouts, effectively promoting the chronic presence of severe BBD in the population.
Synthesis . The shifting conditions created by global change have altered long‐term demographic rates and may thereby impact competitive interactions in the current centre of these species ranges and have more profound implications for species persistence and migration potential than previously anticipated. -
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Abstract Background and Aims Understanding shifts in the demographic and functional composition of forests after major natural disturbances has become increasingly relevant given the accelerating rates of climate change and elevated frequency of natural disturbances. Although plant demographic strategies are often described across a slow–fast continuum, severe and frequent disturbance events influencing demographic processes may alter the demographic trade-offs and the functional composition of forests. We examined demographic trade-offs and the shifts in functional traits in a hurricane-disturbed forest using long-term data from the Luquillo Forest Dynamics Plot (LFPD) in Puerto Rico.
Methods We analysed information on growth, survival, seed rain and seedling recruitment for 30 woody species in the LFDP. In addition, we compiled data on leaf, seed and wood functional traits that capture the main ecological strategies for plants. We used this information to identify the main axes of demographic variation for this forest community and evaluate shifts in community-weighted means for traits from 2000 to 2016.
Key Results The previously identified growth–survival trade-off was not observed. Instead, we identified a fecundity–growth trade-off and an axis representing seedling-to-adult survival. Both axes formed dimensions independent of resprouting ability. Also, changes in tree species composition during the post-hurricane period reflected a directional shift from seedling and tree communities dominated by acquisitive towards conservative leaf economics traits and large seed mass. Wood specific gravity, however, did not show significant directional changes over time.
Conclusions Our study demonstrates that tree demographic strategies coping with frequent storms and hurricane disturbances deviate from strategies typically observed in undisturbed forests, yet the shifts in functional composition still conform to the expected changes from acquisitive to conservative resource-uptake strategies expected over succession. In the face of increased rates of natural and anthropogenic disturbance in tropical regions, our results anticipate shifts in species demographic trade-offs and different functional dimensions.
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How climate change influences the dynamics of plant populations is not well understood, as few plant studies have measured responses of vital rates to climatic variables and modeled the impact on population growth. The present study used 25 y of demographic data to analyze how survival, growth, and fecundity respond to date of spring snowmelt for a subalpine plant. Fecundity was estimated by seed production (over 15 y) and also divided into flower number, fruit set, seeds per fruit, and escape from seed predation. Despite no apparent effects on flower number, plants produced more seeds in years with later snowmelt. Survival and probability of flowering were reduced by early snowmelt in the previous year. Based on demographic models, earlier snowmelt with warming is expected to lead to negative population growth, driven especially by changes in seedling establishment and seed production. These results provide a rare example of how climate change is expected to influence the dynamics of a plant population. They furthermore illustrate the potential for strong population impacts even in the absence of more commonly reported visual signs, such as earlier blooming or reduced floral display in early melting years.more » « less
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Abstract Premise Changes to flowering time caused by climate change could affects plant fecundity, but studies that compare the individual‐level responses of phenologically distinct, co‐occurring species are lacking. We assessed how variation in floral phenology affects the fecundity of individuals from three montane species with different seasonal flowering times, including in snowmelt acceleration treatments to increase variability in phenology.
Methods We collected floral phenology and seed set data for individuals of three montane plant species (
Mertensia fusiformis, Delphinium nuttallianum, Potentilla pulcherrima ). To examine the drivers of seed set, we measured conspecific floral density and conducted pollen limitation experiments to isolate pollination function. We advanced the phenology of plant communities in a controlled large‐scale snowmelt acceleration experiment.Results Differences in individual phenology relative to the rest of the population affected fecundity in our focal species, but effects were species‐specific. For our early‐season species, individuals that bloomed later than the population peak bloom had increased fecundity, while for our midseason species, simply blooming before or after the population peak increased individual fecundity. For our late‐season species, blooming earlier than the population peak increased fecundity. The early and midseason species were pollen‐limited, and conspecific density affected seed set only for our early‐season species.
Conclusions Our study shows that variation in individual phenology affects fecundity in three phenologically distinct montane species, and that pollen limitation may be more influential than conspecific density. Our results suggest that individual‐level changes in phenology are important to consider for understanding plant reproductive success.
- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2116691118
