This article examines a case of urban displacement currently underway in central Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. In some respects, this case represents a classic example of what researchers call ‘downward raiding’: a type of urban displacement whereby low-income housing is exploited by higher-income groups. Yet, in other respects, it also raises important questions about the ways urban displacement happens in public housing, as well as how downward raiding operates on the ground in cities. By exploring these questions, this article aims to accomplish two goals: first, to investigate an overlooked and often hidden form of urban displacement that, in this case, coincides with a large-scale, public–private housing initiative; and, second, to critically interrogate the concept of downward raiding in order to better understand and define the process. It is argued that by placing greater emphasis on how, empirically speaking, urban displacement happens, researchers may gain new insight into diverse forms of urban displacement in cities around the world.
more »
« less
Health effects of heat vulnerability in Rio de Janeiro: a validation model for policy applications
Abstract Extreme heat events can lead to increased risk of heat-related deaths. Furthermore, urban areas are often hotter than their rural surroundings, exacerbating heat waves. Unfortunately, validation is difficult; to our knowledge, most validations, even if they control for temperatures, really only validate a social vulnerability index instead of a heat vulnerability index. Here we investigate how to construct and validate a heat vulnerability index given uncertainty ranges in data for the city of Rio de Janeiro. First, we compare excess deaths of certain types of circulatory diseases during heat waves. Second, we use demographic and environmental data and factor analysis to construct a set of unobserved factors and respective weightings related to heat vulnerability, including a Monte Carlo analysis to represent the uncertainty ranges assigned to the input data. Finally, we use distance to hospital and clinics and their health record data as an instrumental variable to validate our factors. We find that we can validate the Rio de Janeiro heat vulnerability index against excess deaths during heat waves; specifically, we use three types of regressions coupled with difference in difference calculations to show this is indeed a heat vulnerability index as opposed to a social vulnerability index. The factor analysis identifies two factors that contribute to >70% of the variability in the data; one socio-economic factor and one urban form factor. This suggests it is necessary to add a step to existing methods for validation of heat vulnerability indices, that of the difference-in-difference calculation.
more »
« less
- Award ID(s):
- 1664091
- PAR ID:
- 10316629
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- SN Applied Sciences
- Volume:
- 2
- Issue:
- 12
- ISSN:
- 2523-3963
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
Economic damages of hurricanes and tropical cyclones are increasing faster than the populations and wealth of many coastal areas. There is urgency to update priorities of agencies engaged with risk assessment, risk mitigation, and risk communication across hundreds or thousands of water basins. This paper evaluates hydrology and social vulnerability factors to develop a risk register at a subbasin scale for which the priorities of agencies vary by storm scenario using publicly available satellite-based Earth observations. The novelty and innovation of this approach is the quantification and mapping of risk as a disruption of system order, while using social vulnerability indices and sensor data from disparate sources. The results assist with allocating resources across basins under several scenarios of hydrology and social vulnerability. The approach is in several parts as follows: first, a baseline order of basins is defined using the CDC/ATSDR social vulnerability index (SVI). Next, a set of storm scenarios is defined using Earth Observations and modeled data. Next, a swing-weight technique is used to update factor weights under each scenario. Lastly, the importance order of basins relative to the baseline order is used to compare the risk of scenarios across the study area. The risk is thus quantified (by least squares difference of order) as a disruption to the ordering of basins by social and hydrologic factors (i.e., SVI, precipitation, wind speed, and soil moisture), with attention to the most disruptive scenarios. An application is described with extensive mapping of hydrologic basins for Hurricane Ian to demonstrate a versatile method to address uncertainty of scenarios of storm nature and extent across coastal mega-regions.more » « less
-
Abstract The spread of dengue and other arboviruses constitutes an expanding global health threat. The extensive heterogeneity in population distribution and potential complexity of movement in megacities of low and middle-income countries challenges predictive modeling, even as its importance to disease spread is clearer than ever. Using surveillance data at fine resolution following the emergence of the DENV4 dengue serotype in Rio de Janeiro, we document a pattern in the size of successive epidemics that is invariant to the scale of spatial aggregation. This pattern emerges from the combined effect of herd immunity and seasonal transmission, and is strongly driven by variation in population density at sub-kilometer scales. It is apparent only when the landscape is stratified by population density and not by spatial proximity as has been common practice. Models that exploit this emergent simplicity should afford improved predictions of the local size of successive epidemic waves.more » « less
-
Wang, Yuyan (Ed.)Urban street trees offer cities critical environmental and social benefits. In New York City (NYC), a decadal census of every street tree is conducted to help understand and manage the urban forest. However, it has previously been impossible to analyze growth of an individual tree because of uncertainty in tree location. This study overcomes this limitation using a three-step alignment process for identifying individual trees with ZIP Codes, address, and species instead of map coordinates. We estimated individual growth rates for 126,362 street trees (59 species and 19% of 2015 trees) using the difference between diameter at breast height (DBH) from the 2005 and 2015 tree censuses. The tree identification method was verified by locating and measuring the DBH of select trees and measuring a set of trees annually for over 5 years. We examined determinants of tree growth rates and explored their spatial distribution. In our newly created NYC tree growth database, fourteen species have over 1000 unique trees. The three most abundant tree species vary in growth rates; London Planetree (n = 32,056, 0.163 in/yr) grew the slowest compared to Honeylocust (n = 15,967, 0.356 in/yr), and Callery Pear (n = 15,902, 0.334 in/yr). Overall, Silver Linden was the fastest growing species (n = 1,149, 0.510 in/yr). Ordinary least squares regression that incorporated biological factors including size and the local urban form indicated that species was the major factor controlling growth rates, and tree stewardship had only a small effect. Furthermore, tree measurements by volunteer community scientists were as accurate as those made by NYC staff. Examining city wide patterns of tree growth indicates that areas with a higher Social Vulnerability Index have higher than expected growth rates. Continued efforts in street tree planting should utilize known growth rates while incorporating community voices to better provide long-term ecosystem services across NYC.more » « less
-
In this study, we investigate the compatibility of specific vulnerability indicators and heat exposure data and the suitability of spatial temperature-related data at a range of resolutions, to represent spatial temperature variations within cities using data from Atlanta, Georgia. For this purpose, we include various types of known and theoretically based vulnerability indicators such as specific street-level landscape features and urban form metrics, population-based and zone-based variables as predictors, and different measures of temperature, including air temperature (as vector-based data), land surface temperature (at resolution ranges from 30 m to 305 m), and mean radiant temperature (at resolution ranges from 1 m to 39 m) as dependent variables. Using regression analysis, we examine how different sets of predictors and spatial resolutions can explain spatial heat variation. Our findings suggest that the lower resolution of land surface temperature data, up to 152 m, and mean radiant temperature data, up to 15 m, may still satisfactorily represent spatial urban temperature variation caused by landscape elements. The results of this study have important implications for heat-related policies and planning by providing insights into the appropriate sets of data and relevant resolution of temperature measurements for representing spatial urban heat variations.more » « less
An official website of the United States government

