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1. Comparing the paleoclimates of northwestern and southwestern Madagascar during the late Holocene: Implications for the role of climate in megafaunal extinction

   Faina, P.; Burns, S. J.; Godfrey, L.R.; Crowley, B.E.; Scroxton, N.; McGee, D.; Sutherland, M.R.; Ranivoharimanana, L. (January 2021, Malagasy nature)

   The relative importance of climate and humans in the disappearance of the Malagasy megafauna remains under debate. Data from southwestern Madagascar imply aridification contributed substantially to the late Holocene decline of the megafauna (the Aridification Hypothesis). Evidence for aridification includes carbon isotopes from tree rings, lacustrine charcoal concentrations and pollen assemblages, and changes in fossil vertebrate assemblages indicative of a local loss of pluvial conditions. In contrast, speleothem records from northwestern Madagascar suggest that megafaunal decline and habitat change resulted primarily from human activity including agropastoralism (the Subsistence Shift Hypothesis). Could there have been contrasting mechanisms of decline in different parts of Madagascar? Or are we lacking the precisely dated, high resolution records needed to fully understand the complex processes behind megafaunal decline? Reconciling these contrasting hypotheses requires additional climate records from southwestern Madagascar. We recovered a stalagmite (AF2) from Asafora Cave in the spiny thicket ecoregion, ~10 km from the southwest coast and just southeast of the Velondriake Marine Reserve. U-series and 14C dating of samples taken from the core of this stalagmite provide a highly precise chronology of the changes in hydroclimate and vegetation in this region over the past 3000 years. Speleothem stable oxygen and carbon isotope analyses provide insight into past rainfall variability and vegetation changes respectively. We compare these records with those for a stalagmite (AB2) from Anjohibe Cave in northwestern Madagascar. Lastly, odds ratio analyses of radiocarbon dates for extinct and extant subfossils allow us to describe and compare the temporal trajectories of megafaunal decline in the southwest and the northwest. Combined, these analyses allow us to test the Aridification Hypothesis for megafaunal extinction. The trajectories of megafaunal decline differed in northwestern and southwestern Madagascar. In the southwest, unlike the northwest, there is no evidence of decoupling of speleothem stable carbon and oxygen isotopes. Instead, habitat changes in the southwest were largely related to variation in hydroclimate (including a prolonged drought). The megafaunal collapse here occurred in tandem with the drought, and agropastoralism likely contributed to that demise only after the megafauna had already suffered drought-related population reduction. Our results offer some support for the Aridification Hypothesis, but with three caveats: first, that there was no island-wide aridification; second, that aridification likely impacted megafaunal decline only in the driest parts of Madagascar; and third, that aridification was not the sole factor promotingmegafaunal decline even in the dry southwest. A number of megafaunal species survived the prolonged drought of the first millennium, and then likely succumbed to the activities of agropastoralists. 

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2. Drought Coincided with, but Does Not Explain, Late Holocene Megafauna Extinctions in SW Madagascar

   https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.3390/cli9090138  

   Hixon, S.; Curtis, J.; Brenner, M.; Douglass, K.; Domic, A.; Culleton, B.; Ivory, S.; Kennett, D. (September 2021, Climate)

   null (Ed.)

   Climate drying could have transformed ecosystems in southern Madagascar during recent millennia by contributing to the extinction of endemic megafauna. However, the extent of regional aridification during the past 2000 years is poorly known, as are the responses of endemic animals and economically important livestock to drying. We inferred ~1600 years of climate change around Lake Ranobe, SW Madagascar, using oxygen isotope analyses of monospecific freshwater ostracods (Bradleystrandesia cf. fuscata) and elemental analyses of lake core sediment. We inferred past changes in habitat and diet of introduced and extinct endemic megaherbivores using bone collagen stable isotope and 14C datasets (n = 63). Extinct pygmy hippos and multiple giant lemur species disappeared from the vicinity of Ranobe during a dry interval ~1000–700 cal yr BP, but the simultaneous appearance of introduced cattle, high charcoal concentrations, and other evidence of human activity confound inference of drought-driven extirpations. Unlike the endemic megafauna, relatively low collagen stable nitrogen isotope values among cattle suggest they survived dry intervals by exploiting patches of wet habitat. Although megafaunal extirpations coincided with drought in SW Madagascar, coupled data from bone and lake sediments do not support the hypothesis that extinct megafauna populations collapsed solely because of drought. Given that the reliance of livestock on mesic patches will become more important in the face of projected climate drying, we argue that sustainable conservation of spiny forests in SW Madagascar should support local livelihoods by ensuring that zebu have access to mesic habitat. Additionally, the current interactions between pastoralism and riparian habitats should be studied to help conserve the island’s biodiversity. 

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3. Teasing Apart Impacts of Human Activity and Regional Drought on Madagascar’s Large Vertebrate Fauna: Insights From New Excavations at Tsimanampesotse and Antsirafaly

   https://doi.org/10.3389/fevo.2021.742203  

   Godfrey, Laurie R.; Crowley, Brooke E.; Muldoon, Kathleen M.; Burns, Stephen J.; Scroxton, Nick; Klukkert, Zachary S.; Ranivoharimanana, Lovasoa; Alumbaugh, Jamie; Borths, Matthew; Dart, Ryan; et al (September 2021, Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution)

   Madagascar experienced a major faunal turnover near the end of the first millenium CE that particularly affected terrestrial, large-bodied vertebrate species. Teasing apart the relative impacts of people and climate on this event requires a focus on regional records with good chronological control. These records may document coeval changes in rainfall, faunal composition, and human activities. Here we present new paleontological and paleoclimatological data from southwestern Madagascar, the driest part of the island today. We collected over 1500 subfossil bones from deposits at a coastal site called Antsirafaly and from both flooded and dry cave deposits at Tsimanampesotse National Park. We built a chronology of Late Holocene changes in faunal assemblages based on 65 radiocarbon-dated specimens and subfossil associations. We collected stalagmites primarily within Tsimanampesotse but also at two additional locations in southern Madagascar. These provided information regarding hydroclimate variability over the past 120,000 years. Prior research has supported a primary role for drought (rather than humans) in triggering faunal turnover at Tsimanampesotse. This is based on evidence of: (1) a large freshwater ecosystem west of what is now the hypersaline Lake Tsimanampesotse, which supported freshwater mollusks and waterfowl (including animals that could not survive on resources offered by the hypersaline lake today); (2) abundant now-extinct terrestrial vertebrates; (3) regional decline or disappearance of certain tree species; and (4) scant local human presence. Our new data allow us to document the hydroclimate of the subarid southwest during the Holocene, as well as shifts in faunal composition (including local extirpations, large-vertebrate population collapse, and the appearance of introduced species). These records affirm that climate alone cannot have produced the observed vertebrate turnover in the southwest. Human activity, including the introduction of cattle, as well as associated changes in habitat exploitation, also played an important role. 

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4. A speleothem record of hydroclimate variability in northwestern Madagascar during the mid-late Holocene

   https://doi.org/10.1177/09596836231225725  

   Williams, Berry L; Burns, Stephen J; Scroxton, Nick; Godfrey, Laurie R; Tiger, Benjamin H; Yellen, Brian; Dawson, Robin R; Faina, Peterson; McGee, David; Ranivoharimanana, Lovasoa (May 2024, The Holocene)

   We present a continuous high-resolution precisely dated multiproxy record of hydroclimate variability at Anjohibe cave in northwestern Madagascar using speleothem AB13. The record spans from ~4484 y BP to ~2863 y BP. Stalagmite δ¹⁸O, δ¹³C and Sr/Ca ratios show very similar changes in hydroclimate. The mechanism controlling Sr/Ca changes, however, from prior calcite precipitation to degree of dolomite dissolution at about 4 ky BP. Our record is also in good agreement with previously published speleothem records from the same area. This agreement and multiproxy consensus indicate that AB13 provides a robust record of hydroclimate variability, including a continuous record of hydroclimate variability across the 4.2 ka event. This 4.2 ka event in Madagascar is marked by two distinct periods of drying between ~3900 y BP to 4300 y BP. A dry 4.2 ka event at this Southern Hemisphere site helps limit possible mechanisms for the event, indicating that a meridional shift to the south in the ITCZ is not responsible for the 4.2 ka event. In addition, the 4.2 ka event does not stand out as a unique dry period in our record. The longest and driest period of the record lasted ~300 years with peak dryness at ~3000 y BP. Our record differs significantly from a speleothem record from Rodrigues Island, located ~1800 km to the east of our study area in Madagascar suggesting different climatological controls on northwest Madagascar and more oceanic sites to the east. 

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5. Tropical vegetation productivity and atmospheric methane over the last 40,000 years from model simulations and stalagmites in Sulawesi, Indonesia

   https://doi.org/10.1017/qua.2023.75  

   Krause, Claire E; Kimbrough, Alena K; Gagan, Michael K; Hopcroft, Peter O; Dunbar, Gavin B; Hantoro, Wahyoe S; Hellstrom, John C; Cheng, Hai; Edwards, R Lawrence; Wong, Henri; et al (February 2024, Quaternary Research)

   Recent research has shown the potential of speleothem δ13C to record a range of environmental processes. Here, we report on 230Th-dated stalagmite δ13C records for southwest Sulawesi, Indonesia, over the last 40,000 yr to investigate the relationship between tropical vegetation productivity and atmospheric methane concentrations. We demonstrate that the Sulawesi stalagmite δ13C record is driven by changes in vegetation productivity and soil respiration and explore the link between soil respiration and tropical methane emissions using HadCM3 and the Sheffield Dynamic Global Vegetation Model. The model indicates that changes in soil respiration are primarily driven by changes in temperature and CO2, in line with our interpretation of stalagmite δ13C. In turn, modelled methane emissions are driven by soil respiration, providing a mechanism that links methane to stalagmite δ13C. This relationship is particularly strong during the last glaciation, indicating a key role for the tropics in controlling atmospheric methane when emissions from high-latitude boreal wetlands were suppressed. With further investigation, the link between δ13C in stalagmites and tropical methane could provide a low-latitude proxy complementary to polar ice core records to improve our understanding of the glacial–interglacial methane budget. 

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