Fossil corals are commonly used to reconstruct Last Interglacial (∼125 ka, LIG) sea level. Sea level reconstructions assume the water depth at which the coral lived, called the ‘relative water depth’. However, relative water depth varies in time and space due to coral reef growth in response to relative sea level (RSL) changes. RSL changes can also erode coral reefs, exposing older reef surfaces with different relative water depths. We use a simplified numerical model of coral evolution to investigate how sea level history systematically influences the preservation of corals in the Bahamas and western Australia, regions which house >100 LIG coral fossils. We construct global ice histories spanning the uncertainty of LIG global mean sea level (GMSL) and predict RSL with a glacial isostatic adjustment model. We then simulate coral evolution since 132 ka. We show that preserved elevations and relative water depths of modelled LIG corals are sensitive to the magnitude, timing and number of GMSL highstand(s). In our simulations, the influence of coral growth and erosion (i.e. the ‘growth effect’) can have an impact on RSL reconstructions that is comparable to glacial isostatic adjustment. Thus, without explicitly accounting for the growth effect, additional uncertainty is introduced into sea level reconstructions. Our results suggest the growth effect is most pronounced in western Australia due to Holocene erosion, but also plays a role in the Bahamas, where LIG RSL rose rapidly due to the collapsing peripheral bulge associated with Laurentide Ice Sheet retreat. Despite the coral model's simplicity, our study highlights the utility of process-based RSL reconstructions.
A statistical framework for integrating nonparametric proxy distributions into geological reconstructions of relative sea level
Abstract. Robust, proxy-based reconstructions of relative sea-level (RSL) change are critical to distinguishing the processes that drive spatial and temporal sea-level variability. The relationships between individual proxies and RSL can be complex and are often poorly represented by traditional methods that assume Gaussian likelihood distributions. We develop a new statistical framework to estimate past RSL change based on nonparametric, empirical modern distributions of proxies in relation to RSL, applying the framework to corals and mangroves as an illustrative example. We validate our model by comparing its skill in reconstructing RSL and rates of change to two previous RSL models using synthetic time-series datasets based on Holocene sea-level data from South Florida. The new framework results in lower bias, better model fit, and greater accuracy and precision than the two previous RSL models. We also perform sensitivity tests using sea-level scenarios based on two periods of interest – meltwater pulses (MWPs) and the Holocene – to analyze the sensitivity of the statistical reconstructions to the quantity and precision of proxy data; we define high-precision indicators, such as mangroves and the reef-crest coral Acropora palmata, with 2σ vertical uncertainties within ± 3 m and lower-precision indicators, such as Orbicella spp., with 2σ vertical uncertainties within ± 10 m. For reconstructing rapid rates of change in RSL of up to ∼ 40 m kyr−1, such as those that may have characterized MWPs during deglacial periods, we find that employing the nonparametric model with 5 to 10 high-precision data points per kiloyear enables us to constrain rates to within ± 3 m kyr−1 (1σ). For reconstructing RSL with rates of up to ∼ 15 m kyr−1, as observed during the Holocene, we conclude that employing the model with 5 to 10 high-precision (or a combination of high- and low-precision) data points per kiloyear enables precise estimates of RSL within ±∼ 2 m (2σ) and accurate RSL reconstructions with errors ≲ 0.7 m. Employing the nonparametric model with only lower-precision indicators also produces fairly accurate estimates of RSL with errors ≲1.50 m, although with less precision, only constraining RSL to ±∼ 3–4 m (2σ). Although the model performs better than previous models in terms of bias, model fit, accuracy, and precision, it is computationally expensive to run because it requires inverting large matrices for every sample. The new model also provides minimal gains over similar models when a large quantity of high-precision data are available. Therefore, we recommend incorporating the nonparametric likelihood distributions when no other information (e.g., reef facies or epibionts indicative of shallow-water environments to refine coral elevational uncertainties) or no high-precision data are available at a location or during a given time period of interest.
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- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10317804
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography
- Volume:
- 8
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 2364-3587
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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SUMMARY -
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ABSTRACT Late Holocene relative sea-level reconstructions are commonly generated using proxies preserved in salt-marsh and mangrove sediment. These depositional environments provide abundant material for radiocarbon dating in the form of identifiable macrofossils (salt marshes) and bulk organic sediment (mangroves). We explore if single-step graphitization of these samples in preparation for radiocarbon dating can increase the number and temporal resolution of relative sea-level reconstructions without a corresponding increase in cost. Dating of salt-marsh macrofossils from the northeastern United States and bulk mangrove sediment from the Federated States of Micronesia indicates that single-step graphitization generates radiocarbon ages that are indistinguishable from replicates prepared using traditional graphitization, but with a modest increase in error (mean/maximum of 6.25/15 additional 14 C yr for salt-marsh macrofossils). Low 12 C currents measured on bulk mangrove sediment following single-step graphitization likely render them unreliable despite their apparent accuracy. Simulated chronologies for six salt-marsh cores indicate that having twice as many radiocarbon dates (since single-step graphitization costs ∼50% of traditional graphitization) results in narrower confidence intervals for sample age estimated by age-depth models when the additional error from the single-step method is less than ∼50 14 C yr (∼30 14 C yr if the chronology also utilizes historical age markers). Since these thresholds are greater than our empirical estimates of the additional error, we conclude that adopting single-step graphitization for radiocarbon measurements on plant macrofossils is likely to increase precision of age-depth models by more than 20/10% (without/with historical age markers). This improvement can be implemented without additional cost.more » « less
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Abstract Recent ice-mass loss driven by warming along the Antarctic Peninsula has resulted in rapid changes in uplift rates across the region. Are such events only a function of recent warming? If not, does the Earth response to such events last long enough to be preserved in Holocene records of relative sea level (RSL), and thus have a bearing on global-scale glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) models (e.g. ICE-6G)? Answering such questions in Antarctica is hindered by the scarcity of RSL reconstructions within the region. Here, a new RSL reconstruction for Antarctica is presented based on beach ridges from Joinville Island on the Antarctic Peninsula. We find that RSL has fallen 4.9 ± 0.58 m over the past 3100 yr, and that the island experienced a significant increase in the rate of RSL fall from 1540 ± 125 cal. (calibrated) yr B.P. to 1320 ± 125 cal. yr B.P. This increase in the rate of RSL fall is likely due to the viscoelastic response of the solid Earth to terrestrial ice-mass loss from the Antarctic Peninsula, similar to the Earth response experienced after ice-mass loss following acceleration of glaciers behind the collapsed Larsen B ice shelf in 2002 C.E. Additionally, slower rates of beach-ridge progradation from 695 ± 190 cal. yr B.P. to 235 ± 175 cal. yr B.P. potentially reflect erosion of beach ridges from a RSL rise induced by a local glacial advance. The rapid response of the Earth to minor ice-mass changes recorded in the RSL record further supports recent assertions of a more responsive Earth to glacial unloading and at time scales relevant for GIA of Holocene and Pleistocene sea levels. Thus, current continental and global GIA models may not accurately capture the ice-mass changes of the Antarctic ice sheets at decadal and centennial time scales.more » « less
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-8-1-2022
