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The decisions of whether and how to evacuate during a climate disaster are influenced by a wide range of factors, including emergency messaging, social influences, and sociodemographics. Further complexity is introduced when multiple hazards occur simultaneously, such as a flood evacuation taking place amid a viral pandemic that requires physical distancing. Such multihazard events can necessitate a nuanced navigation of competing decision-making strategies wherein a desire to follow peers is weighed against contagion risks. To better understand these trade-offs, we distributed an online survey during a COVID-19 pandemic surge in July 2020 to 600 individuals in three midwestern and three southern states in the United States with high risk of flooding. In this paper, we estimate a random parameter discrete choice model in both preference space and willingness-to-pay space. The results of our model show that the directionality and magnitude of the influence of peers’ choices of whether and how to evacuate vary widely across respondents. Overall, the decision of whether to evacuate is positively impacted by peer behavior, while the decision of how to evacuate (i.e., ride-type selection) is negatively impacted by peer influence. Furthermore, an increase in flood threat level lessens the magnitude of peer impacts. In terms of the COVID-19 pandemic impacts, respondents who perceive it to be a major health risk are more reluctant to evacuate, but this effect is mitigated by increased flood threat level. These findings have important implications for the design of tailored emergency messaging strategies and the role of shared rides in multihazard evacuations. Specifically, emphasizing or deemphasizing the severity of each threat in a multihazard scenario may assist in: (1) encouraging a reprioritization of competing risk perceptions; and (2) magnifying or neutralizing the impacts of social influence, thereby (3) nudging evacuation decision-making toward a desired outcome.
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Dueling emergencies: Flood evacuation ridesharing during the COVID-19 pandemic
Volunteered sharing of resources is often observed in response to disaster events. During evacuations the sharing of resources and vehicles is a crucial mechanism for expanding critical capacity and enabling inclusive disaster response. This paper examines the complexity of rideshare decision-making in the wake of simultaneous emergencies. Specifically, the need for physical distancing measures during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic complicates face-to-face resource sharing between strangers. The ability of on-demand ridesharing to provide emergency transportation to individuals without access to alternatives calls for an understanding of how evacuees weigh risks of contagion against benefits of spontaneous resource sharing. In this research, we examine both sociodemographic and situational factors that contribute to a willingness to share flood evacuation rides with strangers during the COVID-19 pandemic. We hypothesize that the willingness to share is significantly correlated with traditional emergency resource sharing motivations and current COVID-19 risk factors. To test these hypotheses, we distributed an online survey during the pandemic surge in July 2020 to 600 individuals in three midwestern and three southern states in the United States with high risk of flooding. We estimate a random parameter multinomial logit model to determine the willingness to share a ride as a driver or passenger. Our findings show that willingness to share evacuation rides is associated with individual sociodemographics (such as being female, under 36 years old, Black, or republican-identifying) and the social environment (such as households with children, social network proximity, and neighborly sharing attitudes). Moreover, our findings suggest higher levels of income, COVID-19 threat perception, evacuation fear, and household preparedness all correspond with a lower willingness to share rides. We discuss the broader implications of emergency on-demand mobility during concurrent disasters to formulate strategies for transportation agencies and on-demand ridehailing providers.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1847537
- PAR ID:
- 10318052
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Transportation research interdisciplinary perspectives
- Volume:
- 10
- ISSN:
- 2590-1982
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trip.2021.100352
