The Northern Hemisphere wintertime circulation response to volcanic eruptions has been explored extensively using general circulation models. In observations and some models, the response is characterized by an enhanced stratospheric polar vortex (SPV), a positive mode of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and warm surface temperatures during the winter over North America and Eurasia. A weak surface air temperature signal in previous studies has led to conflicting conclusions on the robustness of the response. Here, we use simulations with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) of six nuclear war scenarios to present a new perspective on the connection between stratospheric aerosol heating, the SPV, and the surface temperature response. We show that stratospheric aerosol heating by soot is the primary contributor to the SPV response in nuclear war simulations, which is coupled to the troposphere and projects as a positive mode of the NAO at the surface. Winter warming is observed across northern Eurasia, albeit poleward of the response after volcanic eruptions. We compare the results to simulations of volcanic eruptions and find that observed Eurasian warming in the first winter after the 1963 Agung, 1982 El Chichón, and 1991 Pinatubo volcanic eruptions is simulated with the NCAR CAM5 climate model only when tropical sea surface temperatures, including the observed El Niño, are specified along with the volcanic aerosols. This suggests an undiagnosed tropospheric mechanism connecting the tropics and high latitudes, as without specifying sea surface temperatures, internal variability dominates the simulated winter warming response after historical volcanic eruptions.
- Award ID(s):
- 2017113
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10321184
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
- Volume:
- 21
- Issue:
- 9
- ISSN:
- 1680-7324
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Abstract Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSW) are large‐scale disruptions of the wintertime state of the stratosphere that can affect the circulation at synoptic and global scales, including altitudes up to the mesopause in both winter and summer hemispheres. In this study, the response of the summer mesosphere is analyzed during the SSW in the winter stratosphere. In particular, we focus on major SSW events where the climatological stratopause disappears and subsequently reforms at higher altitude, which we refer to as “extreme SSW” in this article. The summer mesosphere response to such extreme SSW events is analyzed in three different phases: (a) stratosphere warming phase, (b) stratopause discontinuity phase, and (c) stratopause reformation phase. Composites of anomalies with respect to climatology derived from the Microwave Limb Sounder and the extended version of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model with specified dynamics are analyzed. The polar summer mesosphere cools during the stratospheric warming phase and warms in subsequent phases. A detailed lag‐correlation analysis shows strong negative correlation of −0.6 to −0.8 between the summer mesosphere and the winter stratosphere during the stratosphere warming phase, and a positive correlation of 0.4–0.6 in the phases thereafter. An attempt is made to explain the apparent drivers and dynamics responsible for these couplings, supported with evidence from observations and model output.
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Abstract The teleconnection between the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and the boreal winter polar vortex, the Holton–Tan effect, is analyzed in the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) with a focus on how stationary wave propagation varies by QBO phase. These signals are difficult to isolate in reanalyses because of large internal variability in short observational records, especially when decomposing the data by QBO phase. A 1,500‐year ensemble is leveraged by defining the QBO index at five different isobars between 10 and 70 hPa. The Holton–Tan effect is a robust part of the atmospheric response to the QBO in WACCM with warming of the polar stratosphere during easterly QBO (QBOE). A nudging technique is used to reduce polar stratospheric variability in one simulation. This enables isolation of the impact of the QBO on the atmosphere in the absence of a polar stratospheric response to the QBO: referred to as the “direct effect” and the polar stratospheric response, “indirect effect.” This simulation reveals that the polar stratospheric warming during QBOE pushes the tropospheric jet equatorward, opposing the poleward shift of the jet by the QBOE, especially over the North Pacific. The Holton–Tan effect varies over longitude. The QBO induces stronger planetary wave forcing to the mean flow in the extratropical lower stratosphere between Indonesia and Alaska. The North Pacific polar stratosphere responds to this before other longitudes. What follows is a shift in the position of the polar vortex toward Eurasia (North America) during easterly (westerly) QBO. This initiates downstream planetary wave responses over North America, the North Atlantic, and Siberia. This spatiotemporal evolution is found in transient simulations in which QBO nudging is “switched on.” The North Pacific lower stratosphere seems more intrinsically linked to the QBO while other longitudes appear more dependent on the mutual interaction between the QBO and polar stratosphere.
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Abstract Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) significantly influence Eurasian wintertime climate. The El Niño phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) also affects climate in that region through tropospheric and stratospheric pathways, including increased SSW frequency. However, most SSWs are unrelated to El Niño, and their importance compared to other El Niño pathways remains to be quantified. We here contrast these two sources of variability using two 200‐member ensembles of 1‐year integrations of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model, one ensemble with prescribed El Niño sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and one with neutral‐ENSO SSTs. We form composites of wintertime climate anomalies, with and without SSWs, in each ensemble and contrast them to a basic state represented by neutral‐ENSO winters without SSWs. We find that El Niño and SSWs both result in negative North Atlantic Oscillation anomalies and have comparable impacts on European precipitation, but SSWs cause larger Eurasian cooling. Our results have implications for predictability of wintertime Eurasian climate.
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Abstract Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are impressive fluid dynamical events in which large and rapid temperature increases in the winter polar stratosphere (
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6985-2021
