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1. cST-ML: Continuous Spatial-Temporal Meta-Learning for Traffic Dynamics Prediction

   https://doi.org/10.1109/icdm50108.2020.00187  

   Zhang, Yingxue; Li, Yanhua; Zhou, Xun; Luo, Jun (November 2020, 2020 IEEE International Conference on Data Mining (ICDM))

   null (Ed.)

   Urban traffic status (e.g., traffic speed and volume) is highly dynamic in nature, namely, varying across space and evolving over time. Thus, predicting such traffic dynamics is of great importance to urban development and transportation management. However, it is very challenging to solve this problem due to spatial-temporal dependencies and traffic uncertainties. In this paper, we solve the traffic dynamics prediction problem from Bayesian meta-learning perspective and propose a novel continuous spatial-temporal meta-learner (cST-ML), which is trained on a distribution of traffic prediction tasks segmented by historical traffic data with the goal of learning a strategy that can be quickly adapted to related but unseen traffic prediction tasks. cST-ML tackles the traffic dynamics prediction challenges by advancing the Bayesian black-box meta-learning framework through the following new points: 1) cST-ML captures the dynamics of traffic prediction tasks using variational inference; 2) cST-ML has novel designs in architecture, where CNN and LSTM are embedded to capture the spatial-temporal dependencies between traffic status and traffic related features; 3) novel training and testing algorithms for cST-ML are designed. We also conduct experiments on two real-world traffic datasets (taxi inflow and traffic speed) to evaluate our proposed cST-ML. The experimental results verify that cST-ML can significantly improve the urban traffic prediction performance and outperform all baseline models. 

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2. Curb-GAN: Conditional Urban Traffic Estimation through Spatio-Temporal Generative Adversarial Networks

   https://doi.org/10.1145/3394486.3403127  

   Zhang, Yingxue; Li, Yanhua; Zhou, Xun; Kong, Xiangnan; Luo, Jun (August 2020, Proceedings of the 26th ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery & Data Mining)

   Given an urban development plan and the historical traffic observations over the road network, the Conditional Urban Traffic Estimation problem aims to estimate the resulting traffic status prior to the deployment of the plan. This problem is of great importance to urban development and transportation management, yet is very challenging because the plan would change the local travel demands drastically and the new travel demand pattern might be unprecedented in the historical data. To tackle these challenges, we propose a novel Conditional Urban Traffic Generative Adversarial Network (Curb-GAN), which provides traffic estimations in consecutive time slots based on different (unprecedented) travel demands, thus enables urban planners to accurately evaluate urban plans before deploying them. The proposed Curb-GAN adopts and advances the conditional GAN structure through a few novel ideas: (1) dealing with various travel demands as the "conditions" and generating corresponding traffic estimations, (2) integrating dynamic convolutional layers to capture the local spatial auto-correlations along the underlying road networks, (3) employing self-attention mechanism to capture the temporal dependencies of the traffic across different time slots. Extensive experiments on two real-world spatio-temporal datasets demonstrate that our Curb-GAN outperforms major baseline methods in estimation accuracy under various conditions and can produce more meaningful estimations. 

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3. Enhancing Fine-Grained Urban Flow Inference via Incremental Neural Operator

   https://doi.org/10.24963/ijcai.2024/644  

   Gao, Qiang; Song, Xiaolong; Huang, Li; Trajcevski, Goce; Zhou, Fan; Chen, Xueqin (August 2024, International Joint Conferences on Artificial Intelligence Organization)

   Fine-grained urban flow inference (FUFI), which involves inferring fine-grained flow maps from their coarse-grained counterparts, is of tremendous interest in the realm of sustainable urban traffic services. To address the FUFI, existing solutions mainly concentrate on investigating spatial dependencies, introducing external factors, reducing excessive memory costs, etc., -- while rarely considering the catastrophic forgetting (CF) problem. Motivated by recent operator learning, we present an Urban Neural Operator solution with Incremental learning (UNOI), primarily seeking to learn grained-invariant solutions for FUFI in addition to addressing CF. Specifically, we devise an urban neural operator (UNO) in UNOI that learns mappings between approximation spaces by treating the different-grained flows as continuous functions, allowing a more flexible capture of spatial correlations. Furthermore, the phenomenon of CF behind time-related flows could hinder the capture of flow dynamics. Thus, UNOI mitigates CF concerns as well as privacy issues by placing UNO blocks in two incremental settings, i.e., flow-related and task-related. Experimental results on large-scale real-world datasets demonstrate the superiority of our proposed solution against the baselines. 

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4. A spatial–temporal graph deep learning model for urban flood nowcasting leveraging heterogeneous community features

   https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-32548-x  

   Farahmand, Hamed; Xu, Yuanchang; Mostafavi, Ali (December 2023, Scientific Reports)

   Abstract Flood nowcasting refers to near-future prediction of flood status as an extreme weather event unfolds to enhance situational awareness. The objective of this study was to adopt and test a novel structured deep-learning model for urban flood nowcasting by integrating physics-based and human-sensed features. We present a new computational modeling framework including an attention-based spatial–temporal graph convolution network (ASTGCN) model and different streams of data that are collected in real-time, preprocessed, and fed into the model to consider spatial and temporal information and dependencies that improve flood nowcasting. The novelty of the computational modeling framework is threefold: first, the model is capable of considering spatial and temporal dependencies in inundation propagation thanks to the spatial and temporal graph convolutional modules; second, it enables capturing the influence of heterogeneous temporal data streams that can signal flooding status, including physics-based features (e.g., rainfall intensity and water elevation) and human-sensed data (e.g., residents’ flood reports and fluctuations of human activity) on flood nowcasting. Third, its attention mechanism enables the model to direct its focus to the most influential features that vary dynamically and influence the flood nowcasting. We show the application of the modeling framework in the context of Harris County, Texas, as the study area and 2017 Hurricane Harvey as the flood event. Three categories of features are used for nowcasting the extent of flood inundation in different census tracts: (i) static features that capture spatial characteristics of various locations and influence their flood status similarity, (ii) physics-based dynamic features that capture changes in hydrodynamic variables, and (iii) heterogeneous human-sensed dynamic features that capture various aspects of residents’ activities that can provide information regarding flood status. Results indicate that the ASTGCN model provides superior performance for nowcasting of urban flood inundation at the census-tract level, with precision 0.808 and recall 0.891, which shows the model performs better compared with other state-of-the-art models. Moreover, ASTGCN model performance improves when heterogeneous dynamic features are added into the model that solely relies on physics-based features, which demonstrates the promise of using heterogenous human-sensed data for flood nowcasting. Given the results of the comparisons of the models, the proposed modeling framework has the potential to be more investigated when more data of historical events are available in order to develop a predictive tool to provide community responders with an enhanced prediction of the flood inundation during urban flood. 

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5. C3-GAN+: Complex-Condition-Controlled Generative Adversarial Networks with Enhanced Embedding

   https://doi.org/10.1145/3712264  

   Zhang, Yingxue; Li, Yanhua; Zhou, Xun; Liu, Zhenming; Luo, Jun (February 2025, ACM Transactions on Knowledge Discovery from Data)

   Given historical traffic distributions and associated urban conditions observed in a city, the conditional urban traffic estimation problem aims at estimating realistic future projections of the traffic under a set of new urban conditions, e.g., new bus routes, rainfall intensity, and travel demands. The problem is important in reducing traffic congestion, improving public transportation efficiency, and facilitating urban planning. However, solving this problem is challenging due to the strong spatial dependencies of traffic patterns and the complex relations between the traffic and urban conditions. Recently, we proposed a Complex-Condition-Controlled Generative Adversarial Network C3-GAN, which tackles both of the challenges and solves the urban traffic estimation problem under various complex conditions by adding a fixed embedding network and an inference network on top of the standard conditional GAN model. The randomly chosen embedding network transforms the complex conditions to latent vectors, and the inference network enhances the connections between the embedded vectors and the traffic data. However, a randomly chosen embedding network cannot always successfully extract features of complex urban conditions, which indicates C3-GAN is unable to uniquely map different urban conditions to proper latent distributions. Thus, C3-GAN would fail in certain traffic estimation tasks. Besides, C3-GAN is hard to train due to vanishing gradients and mode collapse problems. To address these issues, in this article, we extend our prior work by introducing a new deep generative model, namely, C3-GAN+, which significantly improves the estimation performance and model stability. C3-GAN+ has new objective, architecture, and training algorithm. The new objective applies Wasserstein loss to the conditional generation case to encourage stable training. Shared convolutional layers between the discriminator and the inference network help to capture spatial dependencies of traffic more efficiently, part of the shared convolutional layers are used to update the embedding network periodically aiming to encourage good representation and avoid model divergence. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that our C3-GAN+ produces high-quality traffic estimations and outperforms state-of-the-art baseline methods. 

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