skip to main content

Attention:

The NSF Public Access Repository (NSF-PAR) system and access will be unavailable from 11:00 PM ET on Friday, July 12 until 2:00 AM ET on Saturday, July 13 due to maintenance. We apologize for the inconvenience.


Title: cST-ML: Continuous Spatial-Temporal Meta-Learning for Traffic Dynamics Prediction
Urban traffic status (e.g., traffic speed and volume) is highly dynamic in nature, namely, varying across space and evolving over time. Thus, predicting such traffic dynamics is of great importance to urban development and transportation management. However, it is very challenging to solve this problem due to spatial-temporal dependencies and traffic uncertainties. In this paper, we solve the traffic dynamics prediction problem from Bayesian meta-learning perspective and propose a novel continuous spatial-temporal meta-learner (cST-ML), which is trained on a distribution of traffic prediction tasks segmented by historical traffic data with the goal of learning a strategy that can be quickly adapted to related but unseen traffic prediction tasks. cST-ML tackles the traffic dynamics prediction challenges by advancing the Bayesian black-box meta-learning framework through the following new points: 1) cST-ML captures the dynamics of traffic prediction tasks using variational inference; 2) cST-ML has novel designs in architecture, where CNN and LSTM are embedded to capture the spatial-temporal dependencies between traffic status and traffic related features; 3) novel training and testing algorithms for cST-ML are designed. We also conduct experiments on two real-world traffic datasets (taxi inflow and traffic speed) to evaluate our proposed cST-ML. The experimental results verify that cST-ML can significantly improve the urban traffic prediction performance and outperform all baseline models.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
1942680 1952085 1831140
NSF-PAR ID:
10225177
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ; ;
Date Published:
Journal Name:
2020 IEEE International Conference on Data Mining (ICDM)
Page Range / eLocation ID:
1418 to 1423
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. Urban traffic status (e.g., traffic speed and volume) is highly dynamic in nature, namely, varying across space and evolving over time. Thus, predicting such traffic dynamics is of great importance to urban development and transportation management. However, it is very challenging to solve this problem due to spatial-temporal dependencies and traffic uncertainties. In this article, we solve the traffic dynamics prediction problem from Bayesian meta-learning perspective and propose a novel continuous spatial-temporal meta-learner (cST-ML), which is trained on a distribution of traffic prediction tasks segmented by historical traffic data with the goal of learning a strategy that can be quickly adapted to related but unseen traffic prediction tasks. cST-ML tackles the traffic dynamics prediction challenges by advancing the Bayesian black-box meta-learning framework through the following new points: (1) cST-ML captures the dynamics of traffic prediction tasks using variational inference, and to better capture the temporal uncertainties within tasks, cST-ML performs as a rolling window within each task; (2) cST-ML has novel designs in architecture, where CNN and LSTM are embedded to capture the spatial-temporal dependencies between traffic status and traffic-related features; (3) novel training and testing algorithms for cST-ML are designed. We also conduct experiments on two real-world traffic datasets (taxi inflow and traffic speed) to evaluate our proposed cST-ML. The experimental results verify that cST-ML can significantly improve the urban traffic prediction performance and outperform all baseline models especially when obvious traffic dynamics and temporal uncertainties are presented. 
    more » « less
  2. Given an urban development plan and the historical traffic observations over the road network, the Conditional Urban Traffic Estimation problem aims to estimate the resulting traffic status prior to the deployment of the plan. This problem is of great importance to urban development and transportation management, yet is very challenging because the plan would change the local travel demands drastically and the new travel demand pattern might be unprecedented in the historical data. To tackle these challenges, we propose a novel Conditional Urban Traffic Generative Adversarial Network (Curb-GAN), which provides traffic estimations in consecutive time slots based on different (unprecedented) travel demands, thus enables urban planners to accurately evaluate urban plans before deploying them. The proposed Curb-GAN adopts and advances the conditional GAN structure through a few novel ideas: (1) dealing with various travel demands as the "conditions" and generating corresponding traffic estimations, (2) integrating dynamic convolutional layers to capture the local spatial auto-correlations along the underlying road networks, (3) employing self-attention mechanism to capture the temporal dependencies of the traffic across different time slots. Extensive experiments on two real-world spatio-temporal datasets demonstrate that our Curb-GAN outperforms major baseline methods in estimation accuracy under various conditions and can produce more meaningful estimations. 
    more » « less
  3. Spatio-temporal machine learning is critically needed for a variety of societal applications, such as agricultural monitoring, hydrological forecast, and traffic management. These applications greatly rely on regional features that characterize spatial and temporal differences. However, spatio-temporal data often exhibit complex patterns and significant data variability across different locations. The labels in many real-world applications can also be limited, which makes it difficult to separately train independent models for different locations. Although meta learning has shown promise in model adaptation with small samples, existing meta learning methods remain limited in handling a large number of heterogeneous tasks, e.g., a large number of locations with varying data patterns. To bridge the gap, we propose task-adaptive formulations and a model-agnostic meta-learning framework that transforms regionally heterogeneous data into location-sensitive meta tasks. We conduct task adaptation following an easy-to-hard task hierarchy in which different meta models are adapted to tasks of different difficulty levels. One major advantage of our proposed method is that it improves the model adaptation to a large number of heterogeneous tasks. It also enhances the model generalization by automatically adapting the meta model of the corresponding difficulty level to any new tasks. We demonstrate the superiority of our proposed framework over a diverse set of baselines and state-of-the-art meta-learning frameworks. Our extensive experiments on real crop yield data show the effectiveness of the proposed method in handling spatial-related heterogeneous tasks in real societal applications.

     
    more » « less
  4. Accurate traffic speed prediction is critical to many applications, from routing and urban planning to infrastructure management. With sufficient training data where all spatio-temporal patterns are well- represented, machine learning models such as Spatial-Temporal Graph Convolutional Networks (STGCN), can make reasonably accurate predictions. However, existing methods fail when the training data distribution (e.g., traffic patterns on regular days) is different from test distribution (e.g., traffic patterns on special days). We address this challenge by proposing a traffic-law-informed network called Reaction-Diffusion Graph Ordinary Differential Equation (RDGODE) network, which incorporates a physical model of traffic speed evolution based on a reliable and interpretable reaction- diffusion equation that allows the RDGODE to adapt to unseen traffic patterns. We show that with mismatched training data, RDGODE is more robust than the state-of-the-art machine learning methods in the following cases. (1) When the test dataset exhibits spatio-temporal patterns not represented in the training dataset, the performance of RDGODE is more consistent and reliable. (2) When the test dataset has missing data, RDGODE can maintain its accuracy by intrinsically imputing the missing values. 
    more » « less
  5. Recently, there has been a growing interest in developing machine learning (ML) models that can promote fairness, i.e., eliminating biased predictions towards certain populations (e.g., individuals from a specific demographic group). Most existing works learn such models based on well-designed fairness constraints in optimization. Nevertheless, in many practical ML tasks, only very few labeled data samples can be collected, which can lead to inferior fairness performance. This is because existing fairness constraints are designed to restrict the prediction disparity among different sensitive groups, but with few samples, it becomes difficult to accurately measure the disparity, thus rendering ineffective fairness optimization. In this paper, we define the fairness-aware learning task with limited training samples as the fair few-shot learning problem. To deal with this problem, we devise a novel framework that accumulates fairness-aware knowledge across different meta-training tasks and then generalizes the learned knowledge to meta-test tasks. To compensate for insufficient training samples, we propose an essential strategy to select and leverage an auxiliary set for each meta-test task. These auxiliary sets contain several labeled training samples that can enhance the model performance regarding fairness in meta-test tasks, thereby allowing for the transfer of learned useful fairness-oriented knowledge to meta-test tasks. Furthermore, we conduct extensive experiments on three real-world datasets to validate the superiority of our framework against the state-of-the-art baselines. 
    more » « less