Abstract Arctic permafrost soils store vast amounts of carbon (C)‐rich organic matter that has accumulated due to low temperatures that suppress microbial decomposition. As Arctic warming intensifies, soil microbes become increasingly active, even while plant growth remains dormant. Seasonal decoupling between plant and microbial decomposer growth can accelerate carbon dioxide (CO2) release from soils, however, most Earth system models underestimate cold‐season C emissions and do not accurately represent the freeze–thaw transitions that govern microbial access to substrates during these critical periods. These model–data mismatches often stem from empirical formulations, such as using a fixed Q10functions to represent microbial respiration, an oversimplification of a complex interplay of temperature, moisture, and substrate diffusion. To address this, we incorporated explicit, temperature‐dependent diffusional constraints on microbial activity, (the Dual Arrhenius Michaelis–Menten (DAMM) model), into the Stoichiometrically Coupled Acclimating Microbe–Plant–Soil (SCAMPS) model which uses the Q10function to represent microbial respiration. We used this enhanced model (SCAMPS_DAMM) to simulate Arctic ecosystem responses to a 50‐year winter warming scenario and compared outcomes to the original SCAMPS framework. While both models predicted overall soil C losses under warming, SCAMPS_DAMM produced more constrained increases in microbial respiration and plant productivity. These differences led to similar total ecosystem C declines but divergent patterns of C and N allocation between plant and soil pools. Thus, incorporating mechanistic constraints on microbial access to substrates through explicit representation of temperature and moisture controls altered model projections of Arctic biogeochemical responses to climate change.
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The changing carbon balance of tundra ecosystems: results from a vertically-resolved peatland biosphere model
Abstract An estimated 1700 Pg of carbon is frozen in the Arctic permafrost and the fate of this carbon is unclear because of the complex interaction of biophysical, ecological and biogeochemical processes that govern the Arctic carbon budget. Two key processes determining the region’s long-term carbon budget are: (a) carbon uptake through increased plant growth, and (b) carbon release through increased heterotrophic respiration (HR) due to warmer soils. Previous predictions for how these two opposing carbon fluxes may change in the future have varied greatly, indicating that improved understanding of these processes and their feedbacks is critical for advancing our predictive ability for the fate of Arctic peatlands. In this study, we implement and analyze a vertically-resolved model of peatland soil carbon into a cohort-based terrestrial biosphere model to improve our understanding of how on-going changes in climate are altering the Arctic carbon budget. A key feature of the formulation is that accumulation of peat within the soil column modifies its texture, hydraulic conductivity, and thermal conductivity, which, in turn influences resulting rates of HR within the soil column. Analysis of the model at three eddy covariance tower sites in the Alaskan tundra shows that the vertically-resolved soil column formulation accurately captures the zero-curtain phenomenon, in which the temperature of soil layers remain at or near 0 °C during fall freezeback due to the release of latent heat, is critical to capturing observed patterns of wintertime respiration. We find that significant declines in net ecosystem productivity (NEP) occur starting in 2013 and that these declines are driven by increased HR arising from increased precipitation and warming. Sensitivity analyses indicate that the cumulative NEP over the decade responds strongly to the estimated soil carbon stock and more weakly to vegetation abundance at the beginning of the simulation.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1936752
- PAR ID:
- 10330294
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Environmental Research Letters
- Volume:
- 17
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 1748-9326
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 014019
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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