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Hydrological systems in the Anthropocene have shown substantial shifts from their natural processes due to human modifications. Consequently, deploying coupled human-water modeling is a critical tool to analyze observed changes. However, the development of socio-hydrological models often requires extensive qualitative data collection in the field and analysis. Despite the advances in developing inter-disciplinary methodologies in utilizing qualitative data for coupled human-water modeling, there is a need to identify influential parameters in these systems to inform data collection. Here, we present an exploratory socio-hydrological model to systemically investigate the feedback system of public infrastructure providers, resource users, and the dynamics of water scarcity at the catchment scale to inform data collection and analysis in the field. Specifically, we propose a novel socio-hydrological model by employing and integrating a top-down hydrological model and an extension of Aqua.MORE Model (an Agent-Based Model designed to simulate dynamics of water supply and demand). Specifically, we model alternate behavioral theories of human decision-making to represent the agents" behavior. Then, we perform sensitivity analysis techniques to identify key socio-economic and behavioral parameters affecting emergence patterns in a stylized human-dominated catchment. We apply the proposed methodology to the Lake Mendocino Watershed in Northern California, US. The results will potentially point which parameters are influential and how they could be mapped to a particular interview or survey question. This study will help us to identify features of decision-making behavior for inclusion in fieldwork, that be might be overlooked in the absence of the proposed modeling. We anticipate that the proposed approach also contributes to the current Panta Rhei Research Initiative of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS) which aims at improving the interpretation of the hydrological processes governing the socio-hydrological systems by focusing on their changing dynamics in connection with rapidly changing human systems.
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Investigating uncertainties in human adaptation and their impacts on water scarcity in the Colorado river Basin, United States
The Colorado River Basin (CRB) supports the water supply for seven states and forty million people in the Western United States (US) and has been suffering an extensive drought for more than two decades. As climate change continues to reshape water resources distribution in the CRB, its impact can differ in intensity and location, resulting in variations in human adaptation behaviors. The feedback from human systems in response to the environmental changes and the associated uncertainty is critical to water resources management, especially for water-stressed basins. This paper investigates how human adaptation affects water scarcity uncertainty in the CRB and highlights the uncertainties in human behavior modeling. Our focus is on agricultural water consumption, as approximately 80% of the water consumption in the CRB is used in agriculture. We adopted a coupled agent-based and water resources modeling approach for exploring human-water system dynamics, in which an agent is a human behavior model that simulates a farmer’s water consumption decisions. We examined uncertainties at the system, agent, and parameter levels through uncertainty, clustering, and sensitivity analyses. The uncertainty analysis results suggest that the CRB water system may experience 13 to 30 years of water shortage during the 2019–2060 simulation period, depending on the paths of farmers’ adaptation. The clustering analysis identified three decision-making classes: bold, prudent, and forward-looking, and quantified the probabilities of an agent belonging to each class. The sensitivity analysis results indicated agents whose decision making models require further investigation and the parameters with the higher uncertainty reduction potentials. By conducting numerical experiments with the coupled model, this paper presents quantitative and qualitative information about farmers’ adaptation, water scarcity uncertainties, and future research directions for improving human behavior modeling.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1804560
- PAR ID:
- 10333870
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of hydrology
- Volume:
- 612
- ISSN:
- 0022-1694
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128015
