Abstract Aluto volcano (Central Ethiopia) displays a complex, hybrid topography, combining elements typical of caldera systems (e.g., a central, flat caldera floor) and stratovolcanoes (e.g., relatively high and steep, radial flanks, related to eruptions occurring clustered in space). The most recent known eruptions at Aluto have commonly generated column‐collapse pyroclastic density currents (PDCs), a hazardous phenomenon that can pose a significant risk to inhabited areas on and around the volcano. In order to analyze and quantify the role that Aluto's complex topography has on PDC hazard, we apply a versatile probabilistic strategy, which merges the TITAN2D model for PDCs with a novel zero‐censored Gaussian Process (zGP) emulator, enabling robust uncertainty quantification at tractable computational costs. Results from our analyses indicate a critical role of the eruptive vent location, but also highlight a complex interplay between the topography and PDC volume and mobility. The relative importance of each factor reciprocally depends on the other factors. Thus, large PDCs (≥0.1–0.5 km3) can diminish the influence of topography over proximal regions of flow propagation, but PDCs respond to large‐ and small‐scale topographic features over medial to distal areas, and the zGP captures processes like PDC channelization and overbanking. The novel zGP can be applied to other PDC models and can enable specific investigations of PDC dynamics, topographic interactions, and PDC hazard at many volcanic systems worldwide. Potentially, it could also be used during volcanic crises, when time constraints usually only permit computation of scenario‐based hazard assessments.
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Dynamic pressure evolution within the 18 May 1980 Mount St. Helens pyroclastic density current: evidence from tree damage
Abstract The effects of pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) can be devastating, so understanding their internal dynamics and evolution is important for hazard assessment. We use damaged trees located around Mount St. Helens (USA) as proxy for the dynamic pressure ( P dyn ) of the PDC erupted on 18 May 1980. We recorded the location, distribution, and foliage preservation of damaged trees within the medial and distal parts of the devastated forest. Sub-meter resolution aerial photographs from a month after the eruption allow distinction between standing trees that retained foliage from those that were stripped. Heights of standing trees were estimated from the measured lengths of their shadows. The number of standing trees was counted within defined areas along the propagation paths of PDCs. From the measured tree heights, we estimated tree toppling stresses from P dyn . Overall, P dyn of the PDC head within the medial to distal portions of the blowdown zone ranged from 10 to 35 kPa. P dyn likely waned with distance, as shown by the increased number of standing trees in the outer parts of the devastated area. In addition, we find clusters of standing trees on the lee sides of some hills. We propose that these clusters survived because they were primarily impacted by lower dynamic pressures extant within the PDC body, with foliage retention or stripping as a function of the P dyn evolution in the PDC body. We estimate that P dyn of the body was less than the estimated maximum P dyn of the PDC head by 12 ± 4 kPa.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1852449
- PAR ID:
- 10333899
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Bulletin of Volcanology
- Volume:
- 84
- Issue:
- 4
- ISSN:
- 0258-8900
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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